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November discussion


weathafella
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45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thanks.  Wanna hold onto the pack.  I mean I feel generally very optimistic with the blocking that is starting to set up, especially given that those regimes tends to both last and to repeat.  Hopefully no 2010 style disaster though.

As long as we don't get another retro bomb that fills NNE for all of Jan-April with air that originates over the gulfstream.  :axe:  

But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe

Only the op run, but 12z GFS dumps 2" RA on my head from that one, on NE winds from a LP running up the CC canal.  That odd scenario would require all the cold air be totally gone by then, which I have trouble believing.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 2nd one may not be that warm....euro sort of morphs into a 3rd event that could be bigger. But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe. Might end up being totally nothing, but it's been showing up off and on as a threat on different guidance.

Long over due for an  icing event in SNE;  maybe Dec produces one.

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Will is right. We’re gonna have to closely watch next week in SNE

Still a low probability for SNE...but it's not out of the question by any stretch. Better shot obviously for NNE. There's almost two distinct systems. The first one is the least likely to be frozen on 11/27-28. But then another right on its heels is one to watch more closely. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Because we will lose the NAO blocking  and gaining a good Pacific pattern. That’s what I meant. 

How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!.  I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. 

 

DseQmDRUUAAfw7o.jpg

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18 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!.  I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. 

 

DseQmDRUUAAfw7o.jpg

Beyond my friend. Don’t get your panties in a bunch. It’s not a bad thing to get a Pacific dump of cold. -NAO is good for keeping lows to south but air masses can be marginal. 

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This has been quite the mid Novie stretch.

11/11  36.8  26.6  0.00    0.0   0
11/12  44.5  24.3  0.00    0.0   0
11/13  37.6  29.3  1.40    0.4   0
11/14  29.3  14.7       T       T   0
11/15  27.1  14.3  0.10    1.3   1
11/16  33.2  23.7  0.37    3.0   4
11/17  42.8  29.7  0.00    0.0   4
11/18  34.1  26.0       T    0.1   2
11/19  33.1  28.8  0.04    0.7   2
11/20  31.9  29.1  0.50    7.5   9

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It is going to warm up a bit next week,  it is going to rain in a lot of New England.   It is November for the love of God, deal with it!   

 First half of December looks like it could be fun and yes we probably relax a bit after that before reload.

 We all tease about Grinch storms etc but I think mid to late December  3 day thaws with a cutter are generally the rule not the exception.  Part of our normal climo perhaps? 

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2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

How do we lost the NAO blocking?. The NAO is still negative right through the period. Also, we have a strong Scan ridge causing blocking and Greenland blocking as well. All credit goes to Michael Ventrice on Twitter who posted this!.  I notice it now its gone but still high heights way up north. 

Thankfully twitter saves us from losing the precious -nao. 

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13 hours ago, mreaves said:

Yeah, I've lived in NNE since I was 8 years old.  If we held on to this snow pack all the way through, it would be unprecedented in my memory.

I just ran the numbers using my data, and starting the winter snowpack here from this date (Nov 20th) would be fairly common – this would be 3 times in 13 years of data, so that’s once every 4 or 5 years.  Note though, the current snowpack started on Nov 10th, and if that holds it would be 1.67 S.D. ahead of the mean.  That should only happen about once every 20 years, but we’re probably getting just about “due” for one of these as the data set grows.  Those numbers are for here along the spine of the Greens though, so the occurrence might be a bit less around here away from the spine.  The thing is, if those are the odds here, the percent of seasons where the winter snowpack starts this early in areas farther south out of the mountains must be very small.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll tell you what....mid week next week is exactly what I had envisioned with regard to cyclogenesis this season....watch that late bloomer, hook-and latter deal....if the general evolution remains the same, it will probably get going fast enough to nail ORH points east, at least.

Zeus loves Banana Highs

From Twitter 

IMG_20181121_000242.jpg

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Steve, watch the evolution of that....how the incipient system is born predominately of the n stream....but look at the STJ eject a little node of energy into that n steam system at day 7. That is the essence of weak modoki el nino cyclogenesis, and is a blue print to our most severe of events.

In a stronger el nino....the s steam would be dominant, and we would have a Miller A...decent system, but far less anomalous for us on average, and more room for things to go astray. We want a n stream masher with just a little "over the counter" s stream injection for that extra edge.

That folks, is how we get 'er done....meteorological Mozart.

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