LurkerBoy Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not. It’s just not Deep winter cold. It’ll generally be BN, but not obscenely so . Dec 1-3 is when deep winter hits with big east coast storm and locked in cold Much different tenor this year than many years previous...something different in the air...I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s not. It’s just not Deep winter cold. It’ll generally be BN, but not obscenely so . Dec 1-3 is when deep winter hits with big east coast storm and locked in cold Yeah the ensembles are really the banging the 12/2 - 12/4 period for something substantial. Shades closed until then after the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 If I could go back to the elevation of discussion for a minute I had an interesting observation. It is raining at my house at 400' , mostly snow right up the road from me at 650" but the real snow line started at approximately 950" on the topo map I'm looking at. More evidence that you need to hit that magic thousand foot line around here to have better chances of snow than rain. That being said, it is pretty maddening that I am going to take the dogs for a walk and will be able to walk from my house and in 15 minutes be where it is snowing! (650') I need to move lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If I could go back to the elevation of discussion for a minute I had an interesting observation. It is raining at my house at 400' , mostly snow right up the road from me at 650" but the real snow line started at approximately 950" on the topo map I'm looking at. More evidence that you need to hit that magic thousand foot line around here to have better chances of snow than rain. That being said, it is pretty maddening that I am going to take the dogs for a walk and will be able to walk from my house and in 15 minutes be where it is snowing! (650') I need to move lol. Some nice spots on the west side of Wachusett that are like 1,300 ft for ya, you and MPM moving together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Anybody talking about locking in anything is just slinging nonsense. We reshuffle, and we'll have to see how things shake out...no different than any other time. Early December looks good...but so did this week(for a few shots at a lil snow) late last week....things change and little nuances can make or break any set up. Be ware of anybody talking about definite storms 10 days away, and locking anything in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Yeah, I've lived in NNE since I was 8 years old. If we held on to this snow pack all the way through, it would be unprecedented in my memory. I don't know what he is expecting. Of course it could just be sarcasm. We hold pack well in our CAD-kingdom locale, but in 20 years I've only had white ground November into April twice, 2002 when cover started with the 17-19 storm and 2014 with the pre-Thanksgiving 13" event on 26-27. 2013 was close, with cover starting Dec 1 (and ending on 4/21 - 142 days, tied with 14-15 for longest continuous.) This year has a week's head start on 02-03, and unless we get a major snow-eater thaw, 18-19 may challenge that continuous cover mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think the NWS is catching onto the OES potential from Hyannis eastward. Provincetown could get smoked. We should have a contest between a NNE storm thread and an oes threat thread...my money is on the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 The date of 12/5 has delivered in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, DomNH said: Yeah the ensembles are really the banging the 12/2 - 12/4 period for something substantial. Shades closed until then after the next couple days. So we’ve gotten to a point where we close the shades for 7 days in Nov now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: The date of 12/5 has delivered in years past. Weather has a great memory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Anybody talking about locking in anything is just slinging nonsense. We reshuffle, and we'll have to see how things shake out...no different than any other time. Early December looks good...but so did this week(for a few shots at a lil snow) late last week....things change and little nuances can make or break any set up. Be ware of anybody talking about definite storms 10 days away, and locking anything in. This year has behaved pretty uniquely vs recent and I would avoid automatic thinking that the pattern is clouded no pun intended. It’s been clear for awhile that we’re relaxing and reloading. December certainly looks promising to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So we’ve gotten to a point where we close the shades for 7 days in Nov now? I thought that was an odd comment too. Again, unless I missed the sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: This year has behaved pretty uniquely and I would avoid automatic thinking that the pattern is clouded no pun intended. It’s been clear for awhile that we’re relaxing and reloading. December certainly looks promising to start. I can understand that Jerry, but being overly confident about storms that are a week and a half out, and using words like" Locking in" is just foolish talk when it comes to the weather. I would avoid using terms like that as well. I agree that December looks promising...but nobody knows if we lock in to anything or not?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We should have a contest between a NNE storm thread and an oes threat thread...my money is on the former. NNE has a higher population, so of course they will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I thought that was an odd comment too. Again, unless I missed the sarcasm It was definitely not meant to be serious. Just referencing that it already feels like mid-winter with a pack and several days of flakes already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 I'd take a 3 day stretch of sun and 50s/60s right about now. I'm sure we'll get that around Christmas...probably minus the sun of course though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think the NWS is catching onto the OES potential from Hyannis eastward. Provincetown could get smoked. When will the mesos show their first 0.01" contour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: When will the mesos show their first 0.01" contour? They already have, it’s just not printing the qpf map correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just incredible cold incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 This would be impressive for Mid Winter...but Super impressive for November to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Pattern looks nice and active heading into December and there will be some blocking around...should have some chances. Airmass might be a bit stale initially, but should be cold enough for snow on decent storm tracks...esp interior. I do think we get better arctic cross polar once we get more into the first week of December...like beyond the 4th-5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern looks nice and active heading into December and there will be some blocking around...should have some chances. Airmass might be a bit stale initially, but should be cold enough for snow on decent storm tracks...esp interior. I do think we get better arctic cross polar once we get more into the first week of December...like beyond the 4th-5th. Good December during this type of nino bodes well for winter as you’ve pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 With the exception of one lost lamb... we are all locking in a good Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Good December during this type of nino bodes well for winter as you’ve pointed out. Yes, lets hope it actually pans out as a good December now, lol....there aren't any obvious red flags at the moment, but we know how fast things can change in this business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, lets hope it actually pans out as a good December now, lol....there aren't any obvious red flags at the moment, but we know how fast things can change in this business. Everything points to good-for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Still need to keep an eye on next week too....could be another November threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still need to keep an eye on next week too....could be another November threat. which one? I thought we might be dealing with 2 warmer storms before we get cold? But I guess as blocking builds, storm tracks will improve for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, mahk_webstah said: which one? I thought we might be dealing with 2 warmer storms before we get cold? But I guess as blocking builds, storm tracks will improve for us. The 2nd one may not be that warm....euro sort of morphs into a 3rd event that could be bigger. But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe. Might end up being totally nothing, but it's been showing up off and on as a threat on different guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The 2nd one may not be that warm....euro sort of morphs into a 3rd event that could be bigger. But either way, keep an eye on 11/27-28 timeframe. Might end up being totally nothing, but it's been showing up off and on as a threat on different guidance. Thanks. Wanna hold onto the pack. I mean I feel generally very optimistic with the blocking that is starting to set up, especially given that those regimes tends to both last and to repeat. Hopefully no 2010 style disaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2018 Author Share Posted November 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thanks. Wanna hold onto the pack. I mean I feel generally very optimistic with the blocking that is starting to set up, especially given that those regimes tends to both last and to repeat. Hopefully no 2010 style disaster though. That’s always the first thing you worry about. You are shook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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