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November discussion


weathafella
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Anyways, if we are done comparing weenie sizes to latitude and elevation, It does look like you draw a line from Ray's fanny to ORH and north and think 1-2 with maybe 3-4 towards Hubby anyways. Maybe near Ray could pull 2-3, but lift seems lower than the DGZ. 

Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. 

Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. 

Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. 

Ashburnham could do well while 2 towns away it could be like today.  November....November...

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty much all the 12z guidance so far has ticked slightly cooler. It isn't much but it doesn't take much either for those on the line. 

I really like my spot for this one. Could push us above 10" for November, which would be a nice boost to season total down the road.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad Sam isn't still in Keene at 1000 feet. That's gonna be close to ground zero in this event. 

Princeton weenie ridge area could be sneaky good too as long as we don't get the warmest solutions. They always find a way to maximize the most marginal events. Anyways, hopefully models are little too warm by 0.5C or so...if they are then a lot of folks in the pike region could get in on this. But as is, not expecting much until you are in N ORH county and northward. 

Antecedent day is warm, red flags everywhere, no real push south for the BL tonight.  Hope the Pope is right but we rain anywhere south of NORH county. NE Mass could be in the goods with "some" low DP drainage.  Hows the windex look?

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Antecedent day is warm, red flags everywhere, no real push south for the BL tonight.  Hope the Pope is right but we rain anywhere south of NORH county. NE Mass could be in the goods with "some" low DP drainage.  Hows the windex look?

Windex looks great in CNE and NNE. Pretty meh here. Good winds obviously but we are lacking good lift...don't have the classic LI spike. Moisture is ok...not amazing...so I could see a few snow showers or a squall but I'd be surprised if squalls were hitting most people in SNE. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Windex looks great in CNE and NNE. Pretty meh here. Good winds obviously but we are lacking good lift...don't have the classic LI spike. Moisture is ok...not amazing...so I could see a few snow showers or a squall but I'd be surprised if squalls were hitting most people in SNE. 

Thanks man

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks man

We have amazing lapse rates on the soundings though. I'd like to see just a little more moisture at the surface and more lift...otherwise we'd be primed for a great event. Lapse rates are literally dry adiabatic even though we're near saturation between 900mb and 700mb. 

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Funny how fast things can change....many(myself included) were hoping for a few winter type hits in a row in this pattern in SNE, but looks not to be the case now...unfortunate.  Still very impressive BN temps for the time of year.  And I'm not complaining about the 8.75" of November snow that came back on Thursday.  Darn good start for sure.  Hope we can cash in in early December??  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have amazing lapse rates on the soundings though. I'd like to see just a little more moisture at the surface and more lift...otherwise we'd be primed for a great event. Lapse rates are literally dry adiabatic even though we're near saturation between 900mb and 700mb. 

That sucks, wouldn't be surprised if some rotting LES surprises some in SWCT Berks ORH county,  seems like that kind of night Wed

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny how fast things can change....many(myself included) were hoping for a few winter type hits in a row in this pattern in SNE, but looks not to be the case now...unfortunate.  Still very impressive BN temps for the time of year.  And I'm not complaining about the 8.75" of November snow that came back on Thursday.  Darn good start for sure.  Hope we can cash in in early December??  

Funny how one strong voice from NE CT went quiet this morning. Also, this was always marginal. I honestly never saw this as big potential south of the pike. Maybe nrn CT had a chance but even there it was marginal. You can complain in Jan...but heck in November? I have no sympathy for anyone when climo highs are near 50.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Funny how one strong voice from NE CT went quiet this morning. Also, this was always marginal. I honestly never saw this as big potential south of the pike. Maybe nrn CT had a chance but even these it was marginal. You can complain in Jan...but heck in November? I have no sympathy for anyone when climo highs are near 50.

"In "evil Mazz" voice...

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