dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty poor job there. Luckily it’s a tiny event that didn’t affect nyc weenies so no one will notice. It's scary how the weather knows where the Pike is sometimes. I mean even one foot south and it's nada. It doesn't matter if you're at 200' or 990'. Just rain on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What concerns me is the Euro changing so much within 24ish hours of the event. If this was 2-3 days out I would cut it more slack I don't know if I'd call it a huge change. It was just a large change in sensible wx for a lot of MA so it probably seems larger than it was. We're talking maybe 30 miles and 1C. But it is definitely a bit surprising that it got basically owned on that front. It trended more toward the mesos than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't know if I'd call it a huge change. It was just a large change in sensible wx for a lot of MA so it probably seems larger than it was. We're talking maybe 30 miles and 1C. But it is definitely a bit surprising that it got basically owned on that front. It trended more toward the mesos than the other way around. And it could reverse itself (which might even be worse...lol) and the others cave to it, but I doubt that happens. Still, it is November and this is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't know if I'd call it a huge change. It was just a large change in sensible wx for a lot of MA so it probably seems larger than it was. We're talking maybe 30 miles and 1C. But it is definitely a bit surprising that it got basically owned on that front. It trended more toward the mesos than the other way around. Mesos have been doing well so far and in recent winters. Yea they have their fair share of hiccups but they should be taken seriously and factored into a forecast some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mesos have been doing well so far and in recent winters. Yea they have their fair share of hiccups but they should be taken seriously and factored into a forecast some more. I'm still wary of them when you get beyond d2-3 as I'll side with the globals over the mesos if there's a noticeable synoptic difference. But if we're talking a close range difference in thermals, a front, or a specific mesoscale feature (CAD, deformation, coastal front, etc) I give them more weight. The euro has enough resolution vertically and horizontally to almost be considered a meso, but when it's alone on an island it'll usually make a larger than normal cave (ie Boxing Day 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's scary how the weather knows where the Pike is sometimes. I mean even one foot south and it's nada. It doesn't matter if you're at 200' or 990'. Just rain on snow. It also knows where 495 is, they used to always say, snow north of the pike and west of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: And it could reverse itself (which might even be worse...lol) and the others cave to it, but I doubt that happens. Still, it is November and this is just gravy. Even if it reverses only slightly, that will make a big difference for places like ORH and over to Ray in Methuen. Your 'hood is a tough call. I could honestly see you getting 4-6" or almost nothing. It's that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 In a borderline atmospheric column, a Canadian Goose fart could affect the outcome. Just how it goes. No comment from Kevin. We're onto December. No complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I like 2-5'' north of Rt. 2 and west of 495. As Will said it's going to be razor's edge somewhere between Rt. 2 and the Pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's scary how the weather knows where the Pike is sometimes. I mean even one foot south and it's nada. It doesn't matter if you're at 200' or 990'. Just rain on snow. 14 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It also knows where 495 is, they used to always say, snow north of the pike and west of 495. It's actually based on why they laid the roads where they did. They were laid--from Indian trails to highways--along the easiest path with respect to geography/topography. It's that same geography that tends to serve as demarkation points for things like rain/snow lines. In short, highways often make for accurate separation points with weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's scary how the weather knows where the Pike is sometimes. I mean even one foot south and it's nada. It doesn't matter if you're at 200' or 990'. Just rain on snow. Wow-Dendy gone wild! You’re still on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, White Rain said: Keeping expectations very low for this one. I could definitely see this going either way but wouldn’t be shocked to get almost nothing. Hubb definitely has the best chance of cashing in around here. 33F white rain is what I expect after a slushy 1 inch or so. Climo, meh airmass... Hopefully a pattern like this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Wow-Dendy gone wild! You’re still on! Just friendly trolling. He's AWOL this morning running his 5 miles in the drizzle, but he'll be sure to rub it back in my face the next time a system shifts south. We love him long time though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 12z NAM coming in a bit colder so far. Maybe naked snow angels for hubbdave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Lakes region of NH/ME over to downeast looks to get 3-5.GYX says de nadaSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2m temps on most models are in the u10s here by 6z Thu. Maybe teens for highs up here? 2m temps remain in the 10s all day and MEX at CON is only 21°. The first 10s on record at CON is a 15° on 11/27/1873 in a November of yore. GFS hs -24C 850s up here late morning Thanksgiving...just unreal for this time of year. Where is Ginxy with my 850mb temp records by day/month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, White Rain said: Yeah, pretty much. It’s all a bonus IMO at this point anyways. Assuming we have a somewhat normal winter in the cards. I’m actually hoping it clears at some point so I can finish the yard before we go into deep winter. I hear ya. Would also prefer a drama free commute tomorrow... students have a 1/2 day so we can do parent/teacher conferences, My most favorite days of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, toller65 said: GYX says de nada Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk That's today's snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2m temps on most models are in the u10s here by 6z Thu. Maybe teens for highs up here? 2m temps remain in the 10s all day and MEX at CON is only 21°. The first 10s on record at CON is a 15° on 11/27/1873 in a November of yore. GFS hs -24C 850s up here late morning Thanksgiving...just unreal for this time of year. Where is Ginxy with my 850mb temp records by day/month? ORH has a shot at the all time record low max for November. The current record is 20F on 11/30/58. It would be pretty amazing to break that record on 11/22. It will all depend how quick it cools Wednesday evening. I think they will stay below 20F in daytime on Tday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 That's today's snow mapGracias, I am glad I am in errorSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just now, toller65 said: Gracias, I am glad I am in error Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Yeah, The date is on the top of the map for the time frame involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 NAM is sooo close for here now.. something to watch today I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Ray has a shot on the top of MA up there. Lat helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH has a shot at the all time record low max for November. The current record is 20F on 11/30/58. It would be pretty amazing to break that record on 11/22. It will all depend how quick it cools Wednesday evening. I think they will stay below 20F in daytime on Tday. The BOX point n click graph has KORH at around 18F at midnight and cooling off. That's hard to do in December, never mind November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 If Greenfield can get 2" tonight it will put me over 10" for November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Nammy has a nice persistent area of 850 fronto running along the NH/MA border. It could be fun just north of the best fronto there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Nammy has a nice persistent area of 850 fronto running along the NH/MA border. It could be fun just north of the best fronto there. Jaffrey/New Ipswich could be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If Greenfield can get 2" tonight it will put me over 10" for November. Well deserved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH has a shot at the all time record low max for November. The current record is 20F on 11/30/58. It would be pretty amazing to break that record on 11/22. It will all depend how quick it cools Wednesday evening. I think they will stay below 20F in daytime on Tday. I never realized how much elevation variance there is in Methuen....just to my east by the river it goes down to like 40'...then a few miles ssw of me it gets up to 335'. I'm at 154'. Much different from the uniform swamp of Wilmington, and should be interesting this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well deserved. Didn't see you say that after he got like 36" of rain over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now