moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man look at the ORH sounding. Does it get any more marginal? Lol. It looks like this most of the event. Could go either way. Rule of thumb for ORH, if it’s a nail biter, go snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 That RPM map looks like it was drawn in Sam's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 As usual in marginal events if it comes down hard people will get more snow. If it’s lightish it will be a big nothing in the pike region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: As usual in marginal events if it comes down hard people will get more snow. If it’s lightish it will be a big nothing in the pike region. If we can get the low to really blow up as it exits stage right, that will help out the marginal areas...esp in the east in BOS suburbs. They could flash to heavy snow for 2-3 hours and lay down a few inches in that scenario. That prob what you want to look for in your location since the initial overrunning frontal stuff won't get it done there I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2018 Author Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If we can get the low to really blow up as it exits stage right, that will help out the marginal areas...esp in the east in BOS suburbs. They could flash to heavy snow for 2-3 hours and lay down a few inches in that scenario. That prob what you want to look for in your location since the initial overrunning frontal stuff won't get it done there I don't think. Yeah it’s really too warm initially. This would likely be 3-6 a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Yeah it’s really too warm initially. This would likely be 3-6 a month from now. Yeah or even more than that. It's a great winter setup. Hard to remember that the calendar is still only 11/20 for that event. We're not supposed to be getting snows on that type of setup that early...so really anything...even if it's an inch or two at the end....is a total bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If we can get the low to really blow up as it exits stage right, that will help out the marginal areas...esp in the east in BOS suburbs. They could flash to heavy snow for 2-3 hours and lay down a few inches in that scenario. That prob what you want to look for in your location since the initial overrunning frontal stuff won't get it done there I don't think. Bufkit on board with that idea. NE MA is definitely flipping to +SN for an hour or two last in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 MOS 1-4-1 with the windexy event Weds, We winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 RGEM is like 40 miles north of the NAM. It's almost totally not believable. It was the furthest north at 18z too and I was thinking it might come back a little. Esp after seeing the RPM and NAM stabilize at 00z. Instead it went even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Pretty sure @jbenedet called this event I think on Friday ? If others did as well congrats if this materializes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah or even more than that. It's a great winter setup. Hard to remember that the calendar is still only 11/20 for that event. We're not supposed to be getting snows on that type of setup that early...so really anything...even if it's an inch or two at the end....is a total bonus. It's still so incredibly early. The seasonal progression from north to south of the baroclinic zone, and overall mean temperature gradients, will continue obviously. The pattern is positioned well for above normal number of snow "threats" for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 I side mostly with the EURO...maybe hair north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's still so incredibly early. The seasonal progression from north to south of the baroclinic zone, and overall mean temperature gradients, will continue obviously. The pattern is positioned well for above normal number of snow "threats" for this time of year. PWM has already tripled normal snow for November, but let's do that in January and we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is like 40 miles north of the NAM. It's almost totally not believable. It was the furthest north at 18z too and I was thinking it might come back a little. Esp after seeing the RPM and NAM stabilize at 00z. Instead it went even further north. Reeks of over-jacked mesoscale model. No way with the current model consensus would this make sense. GFS/EURO blend is the way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Even on the RGEM, I get like an inch refresher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 32° light snow has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Crotched mtn crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Hot Dendy damn! Esta EN FUEGO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 On the phone, but looks like 0z GFS held serve. 850 0C line straddling the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: On the phone, but looks like 0z GFS held serve. 850 0C line straddling the Pike. GFS got a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Lol at the GFS total qpf by next Tue. Enjoy your snow while it lasts if that ever verifies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018111900&fh=210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 32° and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 sleet... many of us just had a pretty big snowstorm for so early in the season, in fact here it was as big if not bigger than the biggest of the season was during recent ratter years and many of the winters of my yore (80s) Tuesday is no loss at all, in fact sounds like a good event unfolding for areas that should be seeing it after 3-4 inches of powdery snow early Thanksgiving morning 1989 in Bristol CT (yes, areas south and east had much more) temp slowly fell to around 20f during the afternoon with strong northerly winds and wind chills below zero punctuated by blowing snow...I never thought I would see a colder Thanksgiving but Thursday sounds pretty impressive and if memory serves me right 1989 fell on the earlier side (23rd?) also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Looks like just under 2" overnight at Pit1. I'll be heading back to Pit2 after work today. I think it will be close as to which location 'wins' tonight/tomorrow. MEX showing IKI with a 4, AQW with a 2, and ORE with a 0. BOX calling 3-5, GYX checking in with a 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Big cave by the euro overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Big cave by the euro overnight. it ain't what it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Enjoy it NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Extreme nrn ma may get some near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Given the disdain for snow maps, I'l refrain from posting it. But I'm loving the RGEM one on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Rains to the NH border someone said that who could it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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