ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS lays down like a 5-spot here, but quick drop south...at least on the clown map...prob a little warm at 2m, though. It's pretty warm below 925 south of there...though with that track, it's prob the GFS just being the GFS. It would prob have good snows further south than the clown maps in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 S.NH looks like the spot to be, blending all the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty warm below 925 south of there...though with that track, it's prob the GFS just being the GFS. It would prob have good snows further south than the clown maps in reality. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's pretty warm below 925 south of there...though with that track, it's prob the GFS just being the GFS. It would prob have good snows further south than the clown maps in reality. FV3 is much colder in that lowest 50 mb for like the LWM. I'm immediately skeptical of the GFS because that perpetually mixed boundary layer issue last year (though it doesn't appear to be an issue at the moment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: FV3 is much colder in that lowest 50 mb for like the LWM. I'm immediately skeptical of the GFS because that perpetually mixed boundary layer issue last year (though it doesn't appear to be an issue at the moment). Not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: S.NH looks like the spot to be, blending all the data. Crotched mtn ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not surprising. It was pretty useless with the last event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: It was pretty useless with the last event... I think it did well with the QPF min in NNE? Maybe Chris knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: S.NH looks like the spot to be, blending all the data. Yeah. Cheshire county is the best spot for all guidance. They get at least high end advisory on every model. Rt 2 looks pretty good too in MA though the 18z rgem got pretty mixy there. I'm guessing it prob won't be as warm as those warmest solutions given how cold the euro is and it's hard to bet against the euro that hard inside 48h. If you took the usual 60/40 or 70/30 blend it's a good event north of the pike through S NH and coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It was pretty useless with the last event... Doesn't matter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it did well with the QPF min in NNE? Maybe Chris knows. That's the 15.12z runs. I don't know about the entire area, but PWM got 1.17" which was much closer to the FV3 than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I’m getting pumped for this. Add on another. 3-6 with what’s already Otg. Gonna be fun Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m getting pumped for this. Add on another. 3-6 with what’s already Otg. Gonna be fun Tuesday I think I wouldn't be so giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think I wouldn't be so giddy. Could be problematic that far south. Though if euro is correct he will get advisory. But N CT can't really afford a compromise solution like ORH can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's the 15.12z runs. I don't know about the entire area, but PWM got 1.17" which was much closer to the FV3 than the GFS. FV3 looked a little beefy in FIT compared to actuality. Eh whatever. Hopefully the FV3 is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I’m just happy we’re stormy and chilly. Even when it “warms up” we’re only talking average. Winter’s personality starting to show itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: FV3 looked a little beefy in FIT compared to actuality. Eh whatever. Hopefully the FV3 is better. Definitely a lot more coops and CoCoRaHS in the 1 inch range than the 0.50-0.75" But then again the FV3 wouldn't be the new model if it wasn't at least marginally better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Definitely a lot more coops and CoCoRaHS in the 1 inch range than the 0.50-0.75" But then again the FV3 wouldn't be the new model if it wasn't at least marginally better. We pray. I just want a model that doesn't warm ORH to 40 when the low goes east of ACK. Hopefully not too much to ask. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 7-Day Forecast...... The good News is...no big storms expected for awhile....Great for Holiday Travel of course. The Bad News is...the colder than normal weather pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Cold is not bad news........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 I seem to recall it putting out some ridiculous amounts during at least one run. Maybe it was higher than some of the others then it verified? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The bad news is your post count is on the rise... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could be problematic that far south. Though if euro is correct he will get advisory. But N CT can't really afford a compromise solution like ORH can. Are you leaning mild Rainer for all of SNE like Nam or snowy 84 north like Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Boston SSTs are running 2°F colder than last year for this date and the coldest since 2014, currently at 50°F. It should only get better after the arctic blast starting Wednesday. It won't matter much for these November storms around here, but it bodes well for the usual cliff hangers in December where a degree or two could make the difference, barring any unforeseen extended warmups. https://seatemperature.info/november/boston-water-temperature.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you leaning mild Rainer for all of SNE like Nam or snowy 84 north like Euro? In between the two probably....pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, Weatherexpert said: 7-Day Forecast...... The good News is...no big storms expected for awhile....Great for Holiday Travel of course. The Bad News is...the colder than normal weather pattern continues. Cold sounds like good news. Need the cold for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Like Will said, probably a 70/30 compromise with Euro and warmer guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 4 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Portland only has free yard waste pick up during November. We've lost two weeks of that now, and I was on midnights for another. Looks like I'll be out during misery mist May to try and dig up the mulch berm that the builders put up to catch run off. I didn't even get a chance to set up a snow board to measure the first full winter season at the new location. I missed the opportunity to get the leaves cleared two years ago.....just a disaster in the spring. Really hurt the look of things for a good chunk of time in the spring. Fortunately, we were all cleaned up the week before Halloween this year, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you leaning mild Rainer for all of SNE like Nam or snowy 84 north like Euro? 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In between the two probably....pike. 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Like Will said, probably a 70/30 compromise with Euro and warmer guidance. Yeah right now I think you have to go compromise. It's rarely 100% one or the other...sometimes it happens but more often than not the solutions will start to converge when we are this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: In between the two probably....pike. Once the summer ends, the Pike is detoured through the Blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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