CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Flow Looks too Northwest for much in the way of OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 That’s ridiculous cold Thanksgiving! Would do 1/15 proud! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Flow Looks too Northwest for much in the way of OES. 12z GFS shows a 12-18 hour period of northerly winds, with the amount of cold air over warm water, we could have a 12 hour of extreme snowfall, although honestly I have to wait to see if the HIRES models come in agreement. EURO might bring a period of northerly winds too between Thursday 12z and Friday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: That’s ridiculous cold Thanksgiving! Would do 1/15 proud! GFS and EURO bring -18-22C 850mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Extreme oes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Extreme oes I am not sure it will ever materialize, the way it does in my heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s ridiculous cold Thanksgiving! Would do 1/15 proud! Folks using chizzles to eat their frozen turkeys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not sure it will ever materialize, the way it does in my heart It never does in my heart, so I use a small portion of my brain instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It never does in my heart, so I use a small portion of my brain instead. So, since it doesn't happen as my heart wants it too, I lose my perspective and then my brain is lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s ridiculous cold Thanksgiving! Would do 1/15 proud! Nipply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Turkey and OES of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Turkey and OES of yore. What would you say the confidence level is for that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What would you say the confidence level is for that event? As low as possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: As low as possible. Damn that isn't fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 To put some more perspective on it, the Thanksgiving cold is particularly special if you remember that this year is the earliest calendar date Thanksgiving could possibly be. For example this year it’s 11/22 and next year it will be 11/28 (latest Thanksgiving possible). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 coldest Macy's Thanksgiving parade? I found 1930 was the coldest at 27/15.,,. at least according to the Euro>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: To put some more perspective on it, the Thanksgiving cold is particularly special if you remember that this year is the earliest calendar date Thanksgiving could possibly be. For example this year it’s 11/22 and next year it will be 11/28 (latest Thanksgiving possible). 2029 will be the next 11/22 Thanksgiving. Damn 2024 leap year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 I was wrong to think the OES would be significant for Thanksgiving, given a low inversion height, we could only be talking a chance of flurries, still time for this to change, but not enough fetch and low inversion heights will put the damper on the event potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2029 will be the next 11/22 Thanksgiving. Damn 2024 leap year. Lol....hope to be breathing. I’ll be a week short of 83 if I am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 For Tuesday, Euro is trending 2 steps forward 1 step back, but it’s there nonetheless, just more ambiguous. 12z EPS shows significant threat still very much on the table imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 18z NAM has come further south with the surface low for Tuesday. Coastal ME and NH could see 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 18Z GFS IS TRYING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18Z GFS IS TRYING. That was real close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18Z GFS IS TRYING. No one ever accused the GFS of not trying, it just isn't that good at its job. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: No one ever accused the GFS of not trying, it just isn't that good at its job. If you don't succeed, try try again. The GFS model since 2005. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If you don't succeed, try try again. The GFS model since 2005. Dust yourself off and try again. Unfortunately it just keeps crashing and burning like Aaliyah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Thoughts on emergent potential as we close out the month and storm into December. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/11/november-out-like-lion-december-in-like.html 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 Nice Ray. The only thing that seems like a flag, is the airmass to start. It looks really marginal as the -NAO moves in with no real cold. I'm actually thinking sometime after 11/28 or so or so may work better as remnant -NAO (may be weakening then) emerges with a better +PNA. But, it's not impossible. I'm referring to more of a better confidence in a winter outcome. Ginxy already is pantless about full moon tides, and it does look stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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