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November discussion


weathafella
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Anecdotal/symbolic content follows, but ... 

First it gets warm, then it gets cold - boom!

That's the adage way things go.  Holistically, a warm up near or shy of 'Giggedy, then turning colder sets stage, because the colder incursion thereafter tends to" overcompensates" ... and the ensuing correction nest(s) the event(s). 

If you think about it ... that intuitive model is really just backing into the H. Archembault statistical method and conclusions therein, whereby it is shown that index modulation/inflections are when/where larger scaled precipitation anomalies take place.   It's really one in the same conception-wise. 

Anyway, ...I still see a very interesting winter signal for the last week of November onwards, as I'm sure others probably do as well..  Hard to say if a preceding warm up... magnitude and transience notwithstanding, would related to that in sort of a 'sloshing' hemisphere, but, I like the look of the PNA spiking months end with an EPO that is also going the other direction.  Meanwhile, the AO/NAO are both tanked!

Having said all that...it's tough really buy-in when the operational model runs are outside the wheel-house of even seeing it.  They may (more likely not...) show events and dailies that fit that complexion until such time as something is legit and latched onto -  ... there's also 'tweener' systems that can happen, which today's ...really was of that ilk.

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44 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

It will be blocky with slow moving storms (similar to last March maybe?).  

Interior locations favored.  More rain than anything for me and those along the coast.

 

As gung-ho as my outlook was, I can envision higher seasonal snowfall totals and more expansive....I think there is an avenue for a 1995-1996 orgy the length of the coast, from the VA capes to Eastport, ME....but would probably require el nino to have one last good run.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a littl toasty at 925 until near NH border, but probably would give a little snow to higher el north of pike.

I wish I was on the damn 325' hill near me....it taunts me like 2 mi to my ssw....its like the ORH of Methuen...always flipping me the bird at like a degree colder...scoffing at my meager 154'.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wish I was on the damn 325' hill near me....it taunts me like 2 mi to my ssw....its like the ORH of Methuen...always flipping me the bird at like a degree colder...scoffing at my meager 154'.

All we need is an elevation event and a Cranberry  Bogger’ and we should see some fireworks from you. 

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