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November discussion


weathafella
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Just now, LSC97wxnut said:

I saw "Snow Squall Warning" on the NWS page this morning.

Is that a new warning for this year or something we don't see in New England very often?  

Believe it's new.. almost here can see it in the distance.. welp webcams showed a almost whiteout in chicopee..10 minute burst incoming :)

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cant say ive looked at the long term forecasts, but we went straight from summer to 1-2 weeks of fall at best, to below normal temps by early october that haven]t let up yet with snow and cold.  im always wary of a cold octobers that lead to early winters around here, as it typically does not last, leading to warmer than normal winter. 

i do recall someone posting evidence to back that up in the past.

 

let see what happens this year.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

14F and 0.75sm visibility -SN.  

Arctic small flake snow blowing and drifting a bit.  

It might as well be mid-January now.

We haven't had that like 2 week stretch this fall where it's just clear and like 50 degrees.....you know nice leaf blowing and wood splitting weather.   Rough. 

My wood pile is saturated. 

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1 hour ago, Organizing Low said:

cant say ive looked at the long term forecasts, but we went straight from summer to 1-2 weeks of fall at best, to below normal temps by early october that haven]t let up yet with snow and cold.  im always wary of a cold octobers that lead to early winters around here, as it typically does not last, leading to warmer than normal winter. 

i do recall someone posting evidence to back that up in the past.

let see what happens this year.

Might've been me, as I parsed the local long-tern co-op and found that BN temps on Oct were followed, on average, by BN snow.  BN temps in Nov led to AN snowfall.  However, neither trend was huge - the snowfall variation was mainly between 90-110% of average.  This Oct was 3°+ below average and Nov looks to finish BN as well, which would be just the 3rd time in 21 years for that double play.  O-N 2002 were each solidly BN and we had a long, cold, but not very snowy winter.  O-N 2008 were both BN, but Nov by less than 1°, and that winter had the rare (for my sheltered locale) true blizzard in Dec plus the 24.5" dump in late Feb.  I'll have to check Farmington for years with BN temps for both months. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Might've been me, as I parsed the local long-tern co-op and found that BN temps on Oct were followed, on average, by BN snow.  BN temps in Nov led to AN snowfall.  However, neither trend was huge - the snowfall variation was mainly between 90-110% of average.  This Oct was 3°+ below average and Nov looks to finish BN as well, which would be just the 3rd time in 21 years for that double play.  O-N 2002 were each solidly BN and we had a long, cold, but not very snowy winter.  O-N 2008 were both BN, but Nov by less than 1°, and that winter had the rare (for my sheltered locale) true blizzard in Dec plus the 24.5" dump in late Feb.  I'll have to check Farmington for years with BN temps for both months. 

I wonder if it's different here in SNE. BOS also has better correlation between BN temps in November than BN in October with a good winter. But ideally, it's best to have both BN around here.

This year, however, the warm water off the south SNE coast might put pressure on that, bringing the baroclinicity farther north than would otherwise be the case. Certainly enough to get us in the game and hopefully you too.

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