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November 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2
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The GFS and Euro have in fact trended towards the NAM on today's runs.  Very impressive start to the season for the NAM.  Not sure if it's been upgraded or not recently, or if it's just doing well with these particular patterns this season.  Whatever the case it's gonna make for an interesting season.  Will make it very interesting for tracking as we move from the 84+hr range to within 84hrs to see what the NAM has to say about things.

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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The GFS and Euro have in fact trended towards the NAM on today's runs.  Very impressive start to the season for the NAM.  Not sure if it's been upgraded or not recently, or if it's just doing well with these particular patterns this season.  Whatever the case it's gonna make for an interesting season.  Will make it very interesting for tracking as we move from the 84+hr range to within 84hrs to see what the NAM has to say about things.

The NAM is one of those things where it has the right idea just enough to tease you into looking at it.  It will be interesting to watch.  Sometimes a model will have a good run for a while before reverting toward its typical scoring.

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Still a little early, but the trends are to move the best snows from southern MN through southern WI with Fri night's wave.  Looks like a DAB for about the southern half of the DVN cwa.  Looks like 0.5-1.5" for about the northern third of the cwa.  For here I'm guessing a quick burst of precip that starts out as a mix and transitions to wet snow and drops a few tenths.

3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning.  Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way.

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning.  Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way.

Been watching that.  Parameters look sufficient for a lake response.  The southern buoy is down to 45... I remember years where it took until December to get that cold.

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10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Still a little early, but the trends are to move the best snows from southern MN through southern WI with Fri night's wave.  Looks like a DAB for about the southern half of the DVN cwa.  Looks like 0.5-1.5" for about the northern third of the cwa.  For here I'm guessing a quick burst of precip that starts out as a mix and transitions to wet snow and drops a few tenths.

3km NAM showing some LES for Chicago Sat night that drifts into northwest IN by Sunday morning.  Something to keep an eye on for you guys out that way.

Looks like this mornings hi-res runs of the RGEM & to an extent NAMs are trying to shift back a little further southwest, with more of a widespread 1-3 incher near the QCA. Still think around 1 on average, but something to watch the trends on. 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

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20 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR is fairly robust relative to the other models and even seems to suggest some convective elements near the changeover zone. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

It has also been consistently shifting a little south with each run. Last night it kept everything in southern MN/WI 

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Think there could be a good burst of snow here tomorrow morning.  Maybe even a quick inch or so though temps look marginal.  

Then lake effect should take shape tomorrow night.  Some signals for a single banded structure into northwest IN but degree of organization is questionable and temps remain marginal even into the overnight hours with the flow off the water.

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Nice to see things trending in the right direction today.  Looking pretty sweet for Cedar Rapids and points west.  Hopefully the models are weakening it a little too quickly so we can get some of those better amounts further southeast.  At this point an inch will seem like a win after how things looked the past few days.

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Certainly one of those weeks this week. As been the case for much of the week, another day of wall-to-wall overcast skies and highs in the 30s the entire day. It should have had rained or snowed with it. Not much luck with Fridays lately, too. So far this November, as of yesterday, sunshine is currently at around 25%, but expect it to drop to near 20% over the next few days. Here's to a long crappy weekend. :axe:

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25 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Certainly one of those weeks this week. As been the case for much of the week, another day of wall-to-wall overcast skies and highs in the 30s the entire day. It should have had rained or snowed with it. Not much luck with Fridays lately, too. So far this November, as of yesterday, sunshine is currently at around 25%, but expect it to drop to near 20% over the next few days. Here's to a long crappy weekend. :axe: 

Yeah I am so over this constant overcast. And not a snowflake to show for it here. I feel like I am in Seattle. Where is the sunshine ? Today was supposed to be Partly Sunny and ended up being cloudy. Tomorrow was forecast to be Mostly Cloudy and now they changed it to Cloudy. They are forecasting "Partly Sunny" on Mon and Tues but I have a feeling as it gets closer it will change to Mostly Cloudy or Cloudy.

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18 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Rather it just stayed cold. Just going to make the next plunge feel even more brutal. Besides, I have snow OTG

Not me... still have leaves to take care of. But about 20% of the leaves are still on the trees... a dead ugly brown but seemingly content to not detach themselves yet.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not me... still have leaves to take care of. But about 20% of the leaves are still on the trees... a dead ugly brown but seemingly content to not detach themselves yet.

I'm with ya.  Still have quite a few leaves left to deal with as well.  Early sunset times means that doing anything during the workweek isn't possible.  Might have some snow on the ground this weekend, so will hopefully be able to finish the yard next weekend when it's warmer.

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