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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Some rainfall totals:

000
NOUS41 KOKX 031325
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-040125-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
925 AM EDT Sat Nov 03 2018

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 25
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/nyc

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   New Fairfield         2.78   630 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter
   Bethel                2.06   730 AM 11/03  Emergency Manager

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Oakland               2.09   700 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter
   Ridgewood             1.15   700 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter

...Passaic County...
   Bloomingdale          2.82   916 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter

NEW YORK

...Orange County...
   Monroe                4.96   800 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter
   Blooming Grove        3.00  1200 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter

...Putnam County...
   Carmel                1.95   800 AM 11/03  Co-Op Observer

...Suffolk County...
   Baiting Hollow        1.48   800 AM 11/03  Co-Op Observer
   Upton                 1.13   800 AM 11/03  NWS Office

...Westchester County...
   Somers                1.76   100 AM 11/03  Trained Spotter
 

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That GFS 18z run looked great for an early winter storm. 850’s are plenty of cold and storm track looks good. A bit of stale cold but I think if the storm comes in at night we can get some snow this weekend.

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1 hour ago, MeteorologicalFan said:

That GFS 18z run looked great for an early winter storm. 850’s are plenty of cold and storm track looks good. A bit of stale cold but I think if the storm comes in at night we can get some snow this weekend.

Gfs lost the cutters

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Larry Cosgrove holding his ground saying milder temperatures after Nov 13th until just after the new year in his weekly newsletter. But he does also mention that "could" change. 

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Next 8 days degs. averaging 51degs., or about 2degs. AN.

RRWT is Normal for the next 30, and BN for the next 90 days.

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First 4 years in a row that NYC reached 70 degrees during the first week of November.

# of 70 degree days in NYC Nov 1-7 since 1980:

2018....2 days so far

2017....2

2016....2 

2015....5

2013....1

2005....1

2003....2

2001....1

1995....1

1994....4

1990....3

1987....1

1982....4

1981....2

 

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If NAM and ECMWF are most correct for Tuesday, would expect slight risk to get expanded into the region. Shear and forecast instability (for this time of year) are impressive.

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Local rivers are all at near bankfull after most reached low to moderate flood stage yesterday. River flooding is going to be a major concern with more threats of heavy rain this week.

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is cold next weekend

Got rid of that late week cutter, looks like a transient but very cold shot of air. We saw something like this last year that obliterated any plant left standing. 

There's a legit shot at some snow too near mid-month. It's almost that time of year where threats are worth looking at. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Got rid of that late week cutter, looks like a transient but very cold shot of air. We saw something like this last year that obliterated any plant left standing. 

There's a legit shot at some snow too near mid-month. It's almost that time of year where threats are worth looking at. 

That freeze last year was nuts. My veggie garden went from thriving to gone in a couple hours. Still haven’t had an official freeze in southern Nassau. A couple of 34s with frost.

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These November -EPO cold shots have been more common since 2013. Looks like the one this year will arrive just in time for the weekend. They also occurred in 2017, 2014, and 2013.

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.thumb.png.5b6ea0c0e367e774f8f4862fad43670f.png

 

 

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On 11/2/2018 at 5:41 PM, jfklganyc said:

Driving through Queens today… Anybody else notice how astounding the colors are?

I can’t remember a nicer day if you want to see color around the city. And right on schedule if not slightly early

Yeah, in the 5 boros it seems almost completely devoid of color then it's like a switch flipped overnight to peak color. Early Nov is normal peak for NYC but to me it was much less gradual than usual. It went from next to nothing to amazing colors in a few days.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These November -EPO cold shots have been more common since 2013. Looks like the one this year will arrive just in time for the weekend. They also occurred in 2017, 2014, and 2013.

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_namer_6.thumb.png.5b6ea0c0e367e774f8f4862fad43670f.png

 

 

 

The new Euro Seasonal makes that it`s 3 month focal point. 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The new Euro Seasonal makes that it`s 3 month focal point. 

 

 

Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. 

 

My analogs this winter have been 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. 

 

Just look at where we have been stuck since AUG

 

DrCRSRrXgAUX8Dc.jpg

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

It is very hard for me to find anything wrong so far.  The Euro seasonal runs the table and the PAC says it has merit. 

 

xJ25AAD.gif

 

 

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