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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I hate this crap, it's like "FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YOUR AREA" except the AREA is 25 miles away.

We're well on the periphery of this.

I don't really blame the people managing this, I know enough about weather to know I'm not in danger.  It's basically for people who decide to go out driving, at least for my area.  For these storms I'm not even sure we're getting rain.

I have been under the FFW for over an hour now.  Reports of many local roads under water and impassable.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

I have been under the FFW for over an hour now.  Reports of many local roads under water and impassable.

Understood.  I'm not giving any disrespect to the system in general, nor this event.  Just that it's not the first cell phone explosion I got where I was way out of the way of the event.  I'm not sure how these notifications are disseminated.  It's seemed weird to me.  Sometimes, oftentimes I'm underneath a really strong storm and get nothing.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Understood.  I'm not giving any disrespect to the system in general, nor this event.  Just that it's not the first cell phone explosion I got where I was way out of the way of the event.  I'm not sure how these notifications are disseminated.  It's seemed weird to me.  Sometimes, oftentimes I'm underneath a really strong storm and get nothing.

It was like that back in July when a small area of queens had a tornado but everyone in the 5 boroughs got the alert

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BTW the significant tornado parameter map posted much earlier today did very well.  Lots of potential to the west that wasn't fully captured but overall, there's a tornado warning over my head I wasn't expecting 24 hours ago.  I'm impressed.

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LOL @NycStormChaser I didn't even know that was you.

Great spot.

I saw the racing clouds and felt the temps and humidity and didn't think to check the sheer.  And I don't know what TOR parameters there are besides.  But it's amazing how many of these setups we have had.  What a goofball summer/fall.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

LOL @NycStormChaser I didn't even know that was you.

Great spot.

I saw the racing clouds and felt the temps and humidity and didn't think to check the sheer.  And I don't know what TOR parameters there are besides.  But it's amazing how many of these setups we have had.  What a goofball summer/fall.

There have been many articles recently on the setups we have had, more so new england, but our area too the past few months. It is quite interesting. 

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Tornado warning just cancelled for central and northern Jersey. Just a special weather statement up at the moment. 

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All of the action is out west, very uneventful. HRRR shows almost nothing in eastern half of NJ. 

Wet pattern has stabilized big time, October was even slightly below normal. 

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18 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

There have been many articles recently on the setups we have had, more so new england, but our area too the past few months. It is quite interesting. 

I dare say it, things are changing.  We may be in for some interesting weather over the next

Forever, I guess.

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36 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Incredibly heavy rain....

Easily over 2".

I have to see what rgwp says in the morning, but I must be near 3" now.  Had some ripping downpours before.

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I'm not sure how to describe this but this isn't the strongest gradient.  Rather than a tight squall line, there's a significant gap between the mT and cP airmasses.  Basically a thick front.  Just instinctively it seems like strong CAA events like we'll experience tomorrow bring tighter squalls.

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Next.8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3degs. AN.

The BN air that gets here near the 9th., never really sweeps across the coastal areas, and is petering out by the 18th.

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This remarkable late season severe pattern continues around the Northeast. It has gone along with record warm minimum temperatures. Islip has experienced the highest number of 60 degree or warmer low temperatures for the fall. Yesterday was also the 3rd highest minimum temperature on record for the month of November.

ISP....highest number of fall 60 or warmer minimum temperatures

#1....32 days....2018

#2....28 days....2017

#3....23 days....1971

Highest November minimum temperatures

#1....65....1971

#2....63....1977

#3...62.....2018....2015

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Around 4-5” of rain here last night. All the local rivers are flooding and still rising. Pompton River is still rising at around the rate of 7” per hour.

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I know we are out one week...but I have never seen such conflicting TV forecasts for next Saturday.

49 to 67 for highs.

 

Im assuming the new/old run differential is in play here

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Recent model runs have extended the duration of this warm, stormy, and wet pattern. Notice how the next shot of cold has been delayed by several days as another cutter finds a way to sneak in.

Gfs doesn't delay the cold as much, could be the Euro slow bias in play. 

However a delay wouldn't surprise me, that's been the story for months now. 

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