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Rtd208

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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I saw 76 on the dashboard thermo in two spots this afternoon and 75 on a bank thermo. It was warm and muggy but damn it felt good :) 

I've been out in the woods a little bit recently and it's really wet. Things are moldy and rotting, trees are falling over all over the place. 

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Something new under the sun...

The second half of October (October 16-31) saw the temperature average 49.6° in Central Park. 2018 became only the 15th year on record during which the second half of October had a mean temperature below 50°.

If the guidance is reasonably accurate, New York City will see the temperature average near 57.5° during the first week in November. None of the October cases saw such warmth during the first week in November. The closest such prior year was 1888 when the November 1-7 mean temperature was 56.5°.

Such early November warmth does not necessarily suggest that the upcoming winter won't be snowy. Of the 14 prior October 16-31 cases, 50% had a mean temperature of 50° or above during the first week of November. Mean and median winter snowfall for those cases were 36.9" and 35.5" respectively in NYC. Mean and median winter snowfall for the other half of those cases were 35.0" and 32.4" respectively.

Finally, half of those 14 October cases went on to have November with a mean temperature of 45° or above. Taking into consideration the long-range guidance, November 2018 will very likely have a mean temperature above that level. Mean and median snowfall amounts for such cases were 38.9" and 39.0" respectively.

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So far it looks like the low in NYC for today was 65 degrees. If this can hold through midnight, then it will be the 3rd warmest low temperature on record for November. In any event, NYC is on track for only the 2nd 60+ November minimum of the 2010's.

Highest November minimum temperatures on record for NYC:

#1.....67.....1971

#2....66......2015

#3....65......1956

#4....64......1938...1936...1929....1895

#5....63......1975

#6....62.......numerous years

#7....61.......numerous years

#8...60........numerous years

 

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11 hours ago, MeteorologicalFan said:

This weather sucks it’s novermber dudes. It should be at least decently cold

It was below normal for almost the entire second half of October. A few days near 70 is more than welcomed. 

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26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

odd high wind watch tomorrow, not seeing it and Upton seems to discount it.

probably will be downgraded to advisory-most modeling showing the best winds well north.

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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

probably will be downgraded to advisory-most modeling showing the best winds well north.

agreed, doubt many areas see winds to 50 let alone 60

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

agreed, doubt many areas see winds to 50 let alone 60

You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). 

Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. 

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23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). 

Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. 

sometimes though models overdue the winds-how many times have we seen a warning or advisory and criteria is not met...

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). 

Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most. 

isolated to the immediate NJ shore, even JFK only gusted in the low 40s.  There were some areas that were able to mix out and got some strong winds but overall it was in the 40s:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=21&glossary=0

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The mid month timeframe should be watched for a storm near the coast.

Tellies look good but of course it will all depend on timing and cold air.

Interior areas would be favored at this point.

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Another unusual combination of shear, steep midlevel lapse rates, and elevated cape on the forecast soundings tonight. This is part of the pattern that has produced the recent late season severe storms and tornadoes around the Northeast.

IMG_0315.thumb.PNG.cae2a8171393532fa58526db8aa2770a.PNG

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another unusual combination of shear, steep midlevel lapse rates, and elevated cape on the forecast soundings tonight. This is part of the pattern that has produced the recent late season tornadoes around the region.

 

 

Yeah, SIGTOR has been increasing a bit on the last few HRRR runs as well. 

NfJUiGe.png

Sddr2Ml.png

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