Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and La Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. 

Average SOI for last 30 days 3.49

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_3.thumb.png.31d4774bb38c7e33e49e9f9576a59412.png

MonthTDeptUS.png.087793ef71657ff25d608737893b4f2b.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar pattern to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and la Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_3.thumb.png.31d4774bb38c7e33e49e9f9576a59412.png

MonthTDeptUS.png.087793ef71657ff25d608737893b4f2b.png

Yeah, today the SOI was plus 15. And like you said ,the SOI has been very positive the last 30 days.  Wonder when we transition to a more typical Nino pattern and leave in the past any Nina hangover effects. I have heard different points of view on this.  

I do like seeing the Eastern Nino regions rather coolish with the continued 1.0 to 1.1 in the Central Pac.   regions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, frd said:

Yeah, today the SOI was plus 15. And like you said ,the SOI has been very positive the last 30 days.  Wonder when we transition to a more typical Nino pattern and leave in the past any Nina hangover effects. I have heard different points of view on this.  

I do like seeing the Eastern Nino regions rather coolish with the continued 1.0 to 1.1 in the Central Pac.   regions.

Those very warm SST's east of Australia are what we typically see with a La Nina +SOI regime. So for the time being, it looks like an atmospheric battle of competing influences. I think this is why we have been seeing these big week 2 model flips. Add the MJO to the mix, and it's tough to extrapolate much past the 6-10 day period.

sstanom0.png.1a2ca4153852f27bc332944e52bd2c34.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those very warm SST's east of Australia are what we typically see with a La Nina +SOI regime. So for the time being, it looks like an atmospheric battle of competing influences. I think this is why we have been seeing these big week 2 model flips. Add the MJO to the mix, and it's tough to extrapolate much past the 6-10 day period.

sstanom0.png.1a2ca4153852f27bc332944e52bd2c34.png

 

Very interesting ......do you have any insights into the cooler waters West of Australia ? Meaning do they help the SSTS warm up in the West Pac , sort of like a feedback of sorts ? 

And, do you feel there is any relatiosnship ( as one private sector met I will not name talked about this month ) between those cooler waters and the MJO staying ( influencing it )  in more favorable cold phases this winter season in the East ( as in more MJO phases  1, 2 and less 5 and 6 ) . Thanks ! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Warmer than normal and stormy first week of November coming up. Very active cutter pattern with wind and rain chances. Similar to the October means with a ridge along the East Coast and the trough over the Central US. So we continue to have blend of El Nino and La Nina influences. One of the few El Nino Octobers with a +SOI. 

Average SOI for last 30 days 3.49

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_3.thumb.png.31d4774bb38c7e33e49e9f9576a59412.png

MonthTDeptUS.png.087793ef71657ff25d608737893b4f2b.png

Gfs has a snow chance at 288

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Brings to mind, Mary Martin singing about an Optimist in South Pacific, however without them the world would be a miserable place.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

And with the same validity as a 2-week out hurricane forecast.     It might curse the rest of the winter anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Nice day today. No torch but certainly a mild Halloween.

Yeah I finally got out for a ride after giving my buggered up hand a few months to recover and it was mid 60's through filtered sun and nice dry air. Most of the leaves are down, I know up by you it's pretty much stick season because I was up there yesterday. 

If those mid month forecasts start to look more possible I guess I'm gonna have to break down and get those new tires I've been needing for a few months. My car is already sketchy when it's wet, white would be out of the question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah I finally got out for a ride after giving my buggered up hand a few months to recover and it was mid 60's through filtered sun and nice dry air. Most of the leaves are down, I know up by you it's pretty much stick season because I was up there yesterday. 

If those mid month forecasts start to look more possible I guess I'm gonna have to break down and get those new tires I've been needing for a few months. My car is already sketchy when it's wet, white would be out of the question.

Areas close to the river are still at peak even as you go north of me. This was in Red Hook this am.

mwjsSCF.jpg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On October 31, 2018 at 8:40 AM, frd said:

Very interesting ......do you have any insights into the cooler waters West of Australia ? Meaning do they help the SSTS warm up in the West Pac , sort of like a feedback of sorts ? 

And, do you feel there is any relatiosnship ( as one private sector met I will not name talked about this month ) between those cooler waters and the MJO staying ( influencing it )  in more favorable cold phases this winter season in the East ( as in more MJO phases  1, 2 and less 5 and 6 ) . Thanks ! 

Since the beginning of October, we have seen this back and forth between El Nino and La Nina influences. The result has been a very stormy pattern. While temperature swings between warm and cold have occurred, the warmth has been more impressive so far than the cold. 

Our next clue about the start of winter will be with the Euro monthly release on November 5th. It should create some interesting conversations when it hits twitter and the weather forum community.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest guidance shows PWAT values reaching or exceeding 1.50" at times during the next 7 days. In addition, total precipitation for this period is forecast to range from 1"-3" with some amounts in excess of 4". As a result, it is possible that by the end of the first week in November, 2018 will have moved up to become New York City's 20th wettest year on record.

Some possible changes in 2018's rankings based on various precipitation amounts for the next 7 days:

Table-precip11012018.jpg

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...