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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Great stat from Josh Timlin. Check out how 1st and 3rd place occurred during the 2010's extreme snowfall period.

The last 1” or more of snow in Central Park fell on April 2. If an inch were to accumulate this Thursday, then 2018 would place 3rd for the least number of days between 1” snow events. Records go back to 1869 (149 years). pic.twitter.com/VrHRYLFWvU
 
There you have it. The 3rd shortest break between the end of one snow season and the start of the next in NYC. This includes 149 years of data back to 1869!pic.twitter.com/3YeuVTPi5F
 
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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great stat from Josh Timlin. Check out how 1st and 3rd place occurred during the 2010's extreme snowfall period.

The last 1” or more of snow in Central Park fell on April 2. If an inch were to accumulate this Thursday, then 2018 would place 3rd for the least number of days between 1” snow events. Records go back to 1869 (149 years). pic.twitter.com/VrHRYLFWvU
 
There you have it. The 3rd shortest break between the end of one snow season and the start of the next in NYC. This includes 149 years of data back to 1869!pic.twitter.com/3YeuVTPi5F
 
DsIGMZVWoAE72_J.jpg-small.jpg.c7311143222746f0e4631891f5c852b2.jpg
 
 
 
 

what about the shortest period between 6 inches events?  This must be the shortest.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

DT is talking about 2 possible snowstorms in the east

One at the end of this month and the other one in early December.

Right now the tellies look awesome if you are a snow and cold lover.

Exciting - we started the winter off fantastically  - the December 2nd Storm looks VERY interesting.  The Arctic Oscillation index straight up plunges almost off the chart end of November and pops back up Dec -- looks extreme. 

599428313_2018-11-1617_45_59-ao.sprd2.gif(618800).thumb.jpg.6c2188ba3c18c11702c9a4c1a969bc45.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Dino said:

Exciting - we started the winter off fantastically  - the December 2nd Storm looks VERY interesting.  The Arctic Oscillation index straight up plunges almost off the chart end of November and pops back up Dec -- looks extreme. 

599428313_2018-11-1617_45_59-ao.sprd2.gif(618800).thumb.jpg.6c2188ba3c18c11702c9a4c1a969bc45.jpg

Archembault event in early December!  Maybe around the 5th when we have gotten some of our huge snowstorms?  Based on that looks like it would be before that?  The weekend after the end of November?  Thanksgiving weekend- is that looking stormy too or more like cold and dry?

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

DT is talking about 2 possible snowstorms in the east

One at the end of this month and the other one in early December.

Right now the tellies look awesome if you are a snow and cold lover.

Pattern looks incredible, obviously that doesn't mean a huge snow event will occur but the chances are much higher than normal. 

Starting to see OP runs correct to the projected blocking pattern with plenty of hints at big storms as well. 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what about the shortest period between 6 inches events?  This must be the shortest.

Interesting point.  No other year in the top 10 comes close to having both the spring and fall storms at 5"+ other than this one.

Also interesting, in the top ten the most recent one before 2011 was 71 years prior.

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Models continuing with a near to record 500 mb block for this time of year in the eastern NAO region. 500 mb heights approach 580 dm very close to the edge of the Arctic Circle just east of Iceland. This is close to the region experiencing record low Arctic ice values for this time of year.

Record low #Arctic sea ice area continues around Svalbard (since at least 1967 - @Istjenesten charts). Temperatures at Longyearbyen (~78°N latitude) have been 6.8°C above average in last 30 days. + Weather data:yr.no/place/Norway/S… … + Sea ice data: polarview.met.nopic.twitter.com/G41EuQJR3p
 
IMG_0333.thumb.PNG.2de28b71fdbb20b7995cac0bd3120bc8.PNG
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3 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Euro and (now) GFS have frigid temps across the northeast for Black Friday.

Both Euro and GFS have an Arctic front for Thanksgiving. If NYC can make it to 23 or colder, then it would be a top 5 coldest Thanksgiving. In addition, Black Friday could see an impressive radiational cooling event if the Arctic high comes right over the area.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/Top5Thanksgiving.pdf

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_6.thumb.png.a586126e6bd70f8c39511860161eac98.png

 

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Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days.

In other news, it looks like the NWS is sticking to its guns for a warmer-than-normal winter for a majority of the USA in its updated winter outlook, surprisingly:

Quote

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) updated their winter outlook covering December through February. Warmer than normal weather is still anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Below average temperatures are not favored in any parts of the nation through the period.

Minimal changes were made to the precipitation forecast. Wetter than average conditions are still anticipated across the southern tier of the U.S. up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.  Below normal precipitation are most likely in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. The previous forecast issued last month also included drier than normal weather in the northern Rockies, but this area has been removed.

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/updated-winter-outlook-from-noaas-climate-prediction-center/

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27 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days.

 

It all depends on the timing of the Arctic front. Thanksgiving may have one of those highs right after midnight. It could remain in the 20’s during the afternoon which would still be impressive. Friday may be a radiational cooling morning before temperatures rebound during the afternoon and evening.

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The CPC output's are like a child's finger painting exercise, except this child has just one color to work with.     Every 3 month period for the next year is AN or just NORMAL, everywhere.   Surely this can not be right, even with global warming.    It could not even get this month right with a low lead time.

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