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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro seasonal was posted on their free site which originally came out on November 5th. It continues this late November -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern right through March. This looks like it may be the latest version of 2010's patterns getting stuck in place for extended periods of time.

IMG_0329.PNG.9440a26f51c21c22c90447aad496095a.PNG

IMG_0331.PNG.27ba0b0c6e833be6b36f1397cde0c1e6.PNG

BCqi3fvCYAA8QxK.jpg-small.jpg.d6a3bb00350b529cf4758f7c51dac683.jpg

If it’s going to get stuck, that’s exavtly how we want it.

My confidence in a big winter is increasing. I just told my director this yesterday and his reaction was huh? 

Spent the daylight hours in the 30s today. Pretty amazing for mid November 

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models continue to correct stronger with the coming late November -NAO block. This could be among the strongest that we have seen this time of year since 1995. These events in the past usually continued into December and beyond in the years below. So this may very well turn out to be an important event when we look back on this winter.

Greatest late November -NAO drops since 1995 and the following DJFM periods -NAO/-AO

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii


2017 11 20 -1.293.....Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

2010 11 26 -2.632.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Dec/Jan....-AO

2008 11 30 -1.823.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Feb..-AO

2005 11 25 -2.181.....Dec/Feb/Mar...-NAO..Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar....-AO

2002 11 23 -1.025.....Dec...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

2000 11 27 -1.216.....Dec/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-AO

1997 11 30 -1.932.....Dec/Feb...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

1996 11 19 -1.851.....Dec/Jan...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO

1995 11 16 -1.751.....Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO

How strong do you think this one will get?  Close to -2?

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14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 has been evolving toward a colder December outlook after starting out depicting an exceptionally warm December. I suspect that the month will be blocky and the forecast development and evolution of strong Atlantic blocking at this time of year is encouraging. The pieces continue to gradually fall into place for what I believe will be a fantastic winter in terms of snowfall (much above average across the region, including interior cities such as Allentown, Scranton, and Binghamton).

Don any concerns that we'll see more coastal huggers this season since that seems to be a characteristic of this month?  That would make it more like 2013-14 than 2002-03.  Although December 2002 had such an event that turned snowy Christmas night.

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14 hours ago, gravitylover said:

A while back I looked at 2 local WU stations and did a quick tally and by mid September both were well over 50". It's kind of surprising that BDR and POU are both hovering near there now but I know there were lots of times where it was pouring here and they got skunked. I'll have to go back and add up the totals from 9/10 to now and see how far past 60" my area is now. I can tell you that it's so soggy in the woods it's tough to leave the more heavily traveled areas without sinking in a couple of inches. 

Too much mold around here.  I know I'm allergic to something in high humidity because I literally cant breathe in it and get bad headaches until I turn my heat way up and then I feel better.

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Next 8 days averaging still averaging 40degs., or about 5 degs. BN.

Month to date is -0.10[50.2].    Should be -1.8[46.6] by the 23rd.

Temp. here has been holding near 32 for some time.

Averaging closer to 33 during the last hour, 7am-8am.

34.8 at 9am.    Probably will not go down again till start of precip. and evaporational cooling.   Temperature still creeping up and is now 36.5 at Noon.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How strong do you think this one will get?  Close to -2?

The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week.

New run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.ee36f3e7df3aa6699ecb855c589982cc.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.98b5313ef07965256bc6e8ae39c4d075.png

 

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week.

New run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.ee36f3e7df3aa6699ecb855c589982cc.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.98b5313ef07965256bc6e8ae39c4d075.png

 

Thanks for the update. I read your other post about the strong negative NAOs in November of previous years, and the following winters, was very eye opening. 

Do you think this reinforces the idea of a general averaged -NAO during the upcoming season ? 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don any concerns that we'll see more coastal huggers this season since that seems to be a characteristic of this month?  That would make it more like 2013-14 than 2002-03.  Although December 2002 had such an event that turned snowy Christmas night.

It's difficult to be sure about storm tracks. But the kind of blocking that could take hold during at least part of December would favor above to much above average snowfall for December. I would not be surprised to see 6" or more snow in December and possibly in excess of 10".

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

The models continue to correct stronger with the -NAO block the closer that we get. We'll probably have a better idea on the exact number over the next week.

New run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.thumb.png.ee36f3e7df3aa6699ecb855c589982cc.png

Old run

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.98b5313ef07965256bc6e8ae39c4d075.png

 

 

Chris ,  This was it`s 3rd correction so far by the EPS in the last 15 days. The EPS is the king in the EP region , but it has been terrible under the ridge / block so far this November. Last week someone on here said , " the cold now looks like only 3 days long " , I thought that was wrong and was using the GEFS at 500 , it handled the Scan ridge better early on.

The EPS will now bust 3 times in this pattern now and the reason is it did not understand the Scandinavian ridge and the effects underneath in the N/E . Now as it migrates to Greenland around 10 day it`s warm period between day 9 -14 look wrong. 

 

I posted this earlier away ,

Once again the EPS will bust here. So far I have seen the Euro not grasp the strength of the Scandinavian ridge with its result underneath east of the Mississippi.

But to make matters worse you are now going to center the positive during this period over Greenland and it continues the 5 day torch theme. 

The GEFS has been better and will beat the Euro again 

eps_t850a_5d_noram_57.png

gefs_t2ma_5d_noram_57.png

Now once past day 12 , things will really begin to get interesting at the end of the month through Dec 10 with regards to this set up.

 

 

gfs_ao_bias.png

gfs_nao_bias.png

 

 

Look out after from week 3 on for something major along the E/C.  The upcoming period as these anomalies relax screams look out.

 

gefs_z500a_nh_57.png

compday.flyVkb1CWI.gif

I am curious as to when the last time the NAO/AO both achieved a -4 / -5 SB BN ? I want to say Boxing Day , but maybe UNC or DON could help out here. 

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36 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Chris ,  This was it`s 3rd correction so far by the EPS in the last 15 days. The EPS is the king in the EP region , but it has been terrible under the ridge / block so far this November. Last week someone on here said , " the cold now looks like only 3 days long " , I thought that was wrong and was using the GEFS at 500 , it handled the Scan ridge better early on.

The EPS will now bust 3 times in this pattern now and the reason is it did not understand the Scandinavian ridge and the effects underneath in the N/E . Now as it migrates to Greenland around 10 day it`s warm period between day 9 -14 look wrong. 

It's interesting how the Euro seasonal had the NATL blocking signal on the Nov 5th run. But the EPS has been playing catch up. 

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48 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Pretty much tough year round. Very hard to get an all snow event. Usually will turn to sleet at some point.

You live 5 miles off the ocean in Southern New Jersey. Even with a northeast wind the flow is off the ocean. You guys rely on strong blocking to make snow possible.

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's difficult to be sure about storm tracks. But the kind of blocking that could take hold during at least part of December would favor above to much above average snowfall for December. I would not be surprised to see 6" or more snow in December and possibly in excess of 10".

We are already seeing this storm overachieve here on the south shore! It looks like midwinter out there with really pretty heavy snow sticking to everything and my pond has been frozen here since this morning!

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We are already seeing this storm overachieve here on the south shore! It looks like midwinter out there with really pretty heavy snow sticking to everything and my pond has been frozen here since this morning!

Allentown is doing very well, so far. My sister was in Hawley and reported similar scenes.

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Allentown is doing very well, so far. My sister was in Hawley and reported similar scenes.

Oh I spend my weekends just north of there in the mountains.  I'm on the south shore of Nassau County during the week.

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning.

In Carbon County in PA it had been snowing since last weekend lol.

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Next 8 days still averaging near 40degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.1[49.1].    Should be -2.5[45.9] by the 24th.     There was a remarkable 6.4" of Snow yesterday.

Currently 42 here at 6am---with a wet, non-WinterWonderland look to it.

Temperature has crashed to  35.5 and wind has picked up here at 7am.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days still averaging near 40degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.1[49.1].    Should be -2.5[45.9] by the 24th.     There was a remarkable 6.4" of Snow yesterday.

Currently 42 here at 6am---with a wet, non-WinterWonderland look to it.

Temperature has crashed to  35.5 and wind has picked up here at 7am.

In addition to the record snow, yesterday was the first -15 daily temperature departure since January 7th. I am not sure if that is a record long stretch between -15 days in NYC.






			
		
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Yesterdays 6.4 inches of snow in NYC becomes only the 5th November storm of 6 inches or more. It also becomes the 193rd storm of six inches or more since records (1869) have been kept.

NYC 6 + inch snows by Month

5          2.6%       November
37       19.2%       December
48       24.9%       January
65       33.7%       February
31       16.1%       March
7        3.6%          April

193  100.0%    Total
 
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