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Rtd208

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hit 28 the other night.

1.30" from this storm

Wantagh mesonet 1.21"

The leaf clogged drains are producing ponding of water similar to heavier rainstorms.

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45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Euro now running 6Z and 18Z (out to 90 hours, I believe) since Oct 1st...

Yeah. I saw this last night in the NE thread. Apparently it only goes out to 90 hours?

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So much for a prolonged stretch of warm weather

NAO AO and EPO are going to be negative along with a favorable PNA in the near future

December is going to be a very interesting month with cold and snow chances

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At 1pm, the storm responsible for bringing another round of significant precipitation to the Middle Atlantic and New England regions was departing. Some additional showers are likely to persist through the day, especially across eastern Long Island and eastern New England.

Record daily rainfall amounts for November 12:

Athens, GA: 2.37” (old record: 1.58”, 1992)
Charlotte: 1.78” (old record: 1.54”, 2002)
Florence, SC: 1.35” (old record: 1.33”, 2002)
Greensboro: 2.46” (old record: 1.76”, 2009)
Raleigh: 3.17” (old record: 3.12”, 1975)

Record daily rainfall amounts for November 13:

Islip: 1.47” (old record: 1.30”, 1982)

As of 1 pm, storm total rainfall amounts, year-to-date precipitation, and 2018’s ranking amount the wettest years for select cities were:

Rain11132018-MA.jpg

 

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the most snow NYC got on Nov. 15th and 16th is 1"...1872 got an inch on the 16th...in December 18" fell on 12/26...60" fell that winter...Nov  15th 1906 saw 1" of snow in NYC...later on in the winter there was an 11" storm in early February...53" fell that winter...

1872...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1872-11-17/ed-1/seq-9/

1906...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1906-11-16/ed-1/seq-1/

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

the most snow NYC got on Nov. 15th and 16th is 1"...1872 got an inch on the 16th...in December 18" fell on 12/26...60" fell that winter...Nov  15th 1906 saw 1" of snow in NYC...later on in the winter there was an 11" storm in early February...53" fell that winter...

1872...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1872-11-17/ed-1/seq-9/

1906...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1906-11-16/ed-1/seq-1/

12/26 is a really big day for snow around here.....imagine if all those snowstorms that occurred that day had occurred a day earlier lol

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Next 8 days still averaging 40degs., or about 6 degs. BN.

Month to date is +0.70[51.2].   Should be -2.0[46.9] by the 22nd.

38 here at 5am.

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During the November 15-16 period, another significant precipitation event, with general amounts of 0.50"-1.50" is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. It is possible that by the end of the storm, both Baltimore and Reading will establish new record annual precipitation figures.

Below is a table with year-to-date, 2018's rank among the wettest years, and rankings for various precipitation amounts for select cities.

Rain11142018-MA.jpg

This storm will likely bring a portion of the region its first measurable snowfall of the season. It remains plausible that both New York City and Boston could pick up a measurable snowfall. Interior sections running from northeastern Pennsylvania to central Massachusetts could pick up a solid 3"-6" snow with locally higher amounts.

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Models continue to correct stronger with the coming late November -NAO block. This could be among the strongest that we have seen this time of year since 1995. These events in the past usually continued into December and beyond in the years below. So this may very well turn out to be an important event when we look back on this winter.

Greatest late November -NAO drops since 1995 and the following DJFM periods -NAO/-AO

http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

2017 11 20 -1.293.....Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
2010 11 26 -2.632.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Dec/Jan....-AO
2008 11 30 -1.823.....Dec/Jan...-NAO..Feb..-AO
2005 11 25 -2.181.....Dec/Feb/Mar...-NAO..Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar....-AO
2002 11 23 -1.025.....Dec...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO
2000 11 27 -1.216.....Dec/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-AO
1997 11 30 -1.932.....Dec/Feb...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
1996 11 19 -1.851.....Dec/Jan...-NAO...Dec/Jan...-AO
1995 11 16 -1.751.....Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar...-NAO...Dec/Jan/Mar...-AO
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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

12/26 is a really big day for snow around here.....imagine if all those snowstorms that occurred that day had occurred a day earlier lol

there were more than a few storms on Dec. 26...

1872...18.0" on 12/26...

1890.....7.0" on 12/26

1933...11.2" on 12/26

1947...25.8" on 12/26-27

1969.....6.0" on 12/25-26

2010...20.0" on 12/26-27

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