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Rtd208

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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Recent guidance, including the 12z NAM and GFS suggest that cities such as Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Providence will likely receive a general 1.00" to 2.00" rain during the November 9-10 timeframe.

Already, 2018 ranks among the 30 wettest years on record in most of those locations. In some, it ranks among the 10 wettest years.

Further south, Baltimore has already had its 3rd wettest year on record. 2018 will likely set a new record by the time the year concludes. Washington, DC has had its 6th wettest year on record. Wilmington, NC, where 90.45" rain has fall through early this morning has had its wettest year on record by far.

A regional snapshot of year-to-date precipitation and rankings for various precipitation amounts from the upcoming system is below.

NYCPrecip11082018.jpg

 

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28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Real heavy rain threat appears to be Monday.

Models are in near unanimous agreement on high pressure overhead Monday; perhaps you meant Tuesday? Both tomorrow's and Tuesday's systems have a redeveloping low passing near the city, PWATs above 1.5" and a low level jet focus, so the heavy rain threat is legit both days. Fortunately, they're both quick movers, so anything over ~1.5" should be highly localized.

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14 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Models are in near unanimous agreement on high pressure overhead Monday; perhaps you meant Tuesday? Both tomorrow's and Tuesday's systems have a redeveloping low passing near the city, PWATs above 1.5" and a low level jet focus, so the heavy rain threat is legit both days. Fortunately, they're both quick movers, so anything over ~1.5" should be highly localized.

Yes sorry meant Tuesday.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models have our next chance of 50 mph or greater wind gusts  and heavy rain with the Friday night convection.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html

USA_GUSTM_sfc_039.thumb.gif.5483a7b088e251b578b59e0278c9f8d3.gif

USA_GUSTM_sfc_039.thumb.gif.da776fcb924bb2ab7714f18a2f6e1690.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s see if we can get the timing right with the convection. Also this one should have Long Island in a more onshore flow as opposed to a sideways flow with the last event. In that event we saw the highest winds on the Far East end jersey shore where winds were right off the ocean. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see higher gusts this time for the rest of the island. 

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Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...


CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-091000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0014.181109T2300Z-181110T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
335 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut,
  northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the
  following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield,
  Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London,
  Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven,
  and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern
  Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
  Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western
  Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New
  York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern
  Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island),
  Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southern
  Westchester.

* From Friday evening through late Friday night

* Low pressure will approach the tri-state area on Friday and pass
  through during Friday night. This will bring a period of
  moderate to heavy rain to much of the area.

* Rainfall is expected to begin Friday afternoon into early
  evening and become moderate to heavy during the evening. The
  rain then becomes lighter and tapers off during the overnight
  hours. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in the
  evening. Rainfall amounts will generally average between 1 and 2
  inches, however locally higher amounts will be possible. The
  combination of heavy rainfall and leaf clogged drainages will
  pose a threat for flash flooding across the watch area. In
  addition, quick water level rises are possible across small
  rivers, streams, and creeks, with flooding of adjacent areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

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GALE WATCH >>>>>>>>  NY HARBOR AREA:

Issued To: New York Harbor

HEADLINE: Gale Watch issued November 08 at 3:50PM EST until November 10 at 7:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Watch,
which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening.
* WINDS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.

INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 kt has significantly increased, but the specific timing and/or
location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide additional
lead time for mariners who may wish to consider altering their
plans.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

*************************************************************************************************

Don't feel too bad about this.    London has a very similar forecast for this time frame.    lol

LONDON:

Headline

A spell of heavy rain and strong winds is expected on Friday.

What to expect

  • A few homes and businesses flooded
  • Spray and flooding on roads will make journey times longer
  • Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport expected
  • Delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges
  • Some short term loss of power and other services
  • Coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities affected by spray and/or large waves

What should I do?


Updated: Thu 8 Nov 09:39

Further details

A band of heavy rain is expected to move east during Friday with widely 15-25 mm of rain falling and perhaps 50 mm over higher ground. This will be in addition to other spells of heavy rain earlier in the week affecting a similar area. Rain will be accompanied by strong winds with gusts of 50 mph possible inland and perhaps 60 mph around some coasts.

 

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On 11/6/2018 at 1:58 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I like how things are evolving.

Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea.

Wow Don is the 50" you are predicting the highest you've ever predicted from this far out?

I'm looking back at past blockbuster (50") winters..... 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18.

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17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For the second month in a row, the first week was exceptionally warm in the New York City area.  During the November 1-7 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 56.9°, which ranked 16th warmest on record for that period.  This was also the warmest November 1-7 period following an October 16-31 period when NYC had a mean temperature below 50°. Just as had been the case in October, a period of colder than normal weather appears likely to follow.

Such warmth during the first week of November does not necessarily mean that the winter will experience below normal snowfall. Since 1869, New York City has had 20 prior cases where the temperature averaged 56.0° or above during the first week in November. Mean snowfall for the winter ahead was 25.0" and median snowfall was 23.4".

However, if one broke those cases into subsets, December snowfall provided a powerful clue as to the overall seasonal snowfall. In cases where December saw 1.0" or more snow, the respective mean and median seasonal snowfall figures were 31.1" and 31.9". 54% of such cases saw 30" or more snow while 23% saw less than 20".  The mean and median figures were even higher from that subset following Novembers with 4.00" or more precipitation as appears likely to be the case this year. However, when it comes to the wet November cases within this subset, a lot of caution is required due to potential sample size issues.

In contrast, in the cases where less than 1.0" snow fell in December, the respective mean and median figures were 15.8" and 15.5". In that subset, 13% of winters saw 30" or more snow while 75% saw less than 20".

 

I remember when we went through this with 2010-11 lol, December had barely any snowfall and the analogs looked really bleak and then on Christmas Eve we found out the GFS was really onto something and not making errors and the Boxing Day Blizzard came and that winter turned on a dime.  I believe that storm happening changed the course of the entire winter.

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The first half of this November is a departure from the drier 2010's patterns. This will be the wettest first half of November for NYC during the 2010's. The record for NYC since 1980 is 5.15 in 1995.

November 1-15 NYC precipitation of the 2010's:

2018.....1.57.... so far with more to come

2017.....0.81

2016.....1.87

2015.....0.71

2014....0.98

2013...0.29

2012...1.27

2011...0.04

2010..1.18

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1 minute ago, CarLover014 said:

Looking at the NAM, I don't think that there would be much thunder/lightning. Like usual, the timing is off a few hours. So I assume it will be a low height squall line. With some wind gusts to 40-50, especially closer to the ocean

The actual squall line in the warm sector will likely have tops to 40000'. May be some cloud-to-cloud lightning in the NY area (especially LI), but TS chances are much higher just to the S/SE.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow Don is the 50" you are predicting the highest you've ever predicted from this far out?

I'm looking back at past blockbuster (50") winters..... 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18.

Yes. So far, all looks good.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The first half of this November is a departure from the drier 2010's patterns. This will be the wettest first half of November for NYC during the 2010's. The record for NYC since 1980 is 5.15 in 1995.

November 1-15 NYC precipitation of the 2010's:

2018.....1.57.... so far with more to come

2017.....0.81

2016.....1.87

2015.....0.71

2014....0.98

2013...0.29

2012...1.27

2011...0.04

2010..1.18

You always has great insights and weather facts ! 

Question, do you feel in regards to what you posted above are there any possible correlations to the coming winter ? Or, simply a chance happening.     

 

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2 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Looking at the NAM, I don't think that there would be much thunder/lightning. Like usual, the timing is off a few hours. So I assume it will be a low height squall line. With some wind gusts to 40-50, especially closer to the ocean

quick mover-in and out in a few hours too...

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1 hour ago, frd said:

You always has great insights and weather facts ! 

Question, do you feel in regards to what you posted above are there any possible correlations to the coming winter ? Or, simply a chance happening.     

 

Thanks. It's a reflection of how wet it has been this year. Jan1- Nov 8th precipitation is the 9th highest for NYC and 4th for ISP.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro now has the heaviest rains for later today/tonight over Eastern LI-rest of area gets .75-1.25

Could be some more convective elements in place there but overall the radar looks juiced. 

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Sure does.  Quick hitter, but some areas will get clocked...

Lots of elevated CAPE currently extends from coastal NJ up through Western LI. Would not be surprised to see some reports of thunder there. 

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1 minute ago, SNOWisTHErealDEAL said:

Could the next storm somehow make it’s cold air? I think if it stays to our southeast and is strong enough like the next 2 images show. Look at where the dots are offshore where the low is supposed to be! Around the benchmark track 

DB433C3E-B9F5-4A2C-921D-31EA14B43C4B.png

The problem with next weeks system is that the energy is not far enough out of the main trough so you get a relatively weak surface low with most of the heavier precip in the warm sector. 

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