November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro and eps look great heading into December

Yeah but they said that a few days ago and now early December looks quite warm. 

I have a hard time trusting any guidance beyond 5 days. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but they said that a few days ago and now early December looks quite warm. 

I have a hard time trusting any guidance beyond 5 days. 

This is going to be the type of winter with great periods and breaks. Wall to wall is almost impossible now. The good news is there is a ton of snow cover to our north and that should help with localized cold generation in southern Canada. I was just in Vermont this weekend and there was a serious snow pack for November 

 

[North and West]

This is going to be the type of winter with great periods and breaks. Wall to wall is almost impossible now. The good news is there is a ton of snow cover to our north and that should help with localized cold generation in southern Canada. I was just in Vermont this weekend and there was a serious snow pack for November 
 

Is wall to wall impossible due to the climate?

Have we ever had one? There was mild weather in 1994 and 1996. Maybe other examples are from before my time. ‍


.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Is wall to wall impossible due to the climate?

Have we ever had one? There was mild weather in 1994 and 1996. Maybe other examples are from before my time. ‍


.

93-94 was pretty damn close. From late December thru early March we only had one brief period of moderation.

95-96 had a long break in mid to late January before cold and snow returned.

We could see a month to 6 weeks of wall to wall but unlikely for a 3 month period

[Cfa]

I’ve always wondered how our winters would look if they were as stable as summer.

[Zelocita Weather]

93/94, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14, 14/15 all pretty close to (if not) wall to wall good winter weather

[dWave]

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Coastal flood warning for southern Queens and Brooklyn for tomorrow morning’s high tide. Minor to some moderate coastal flooding expected. 

There was some flooding and beach erosion in the Rockaways. A little more significant than most ppl expected. 

[NycStormChaser]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

There was some flooding and beach erosion in the Rockaways. A little more significant than most ppl expected. 

Yeah tomorrow morning should be moderate for south queens again similar to the noreaster a few weeks ago. 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC closing in on the most days in any year with measurable precipitation. 

#1...152 days....1996

#2...145 days....1972

#3...142 days....2018...2003

Surprised 1983 isn't on this list, it's the only year with over 80" of precip!

[CIK62]

Remainder of Nov. averaging 45degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -3.8[44.8].     Should end month at  -3.0[44.7].

All 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Kiss the BN goodbye for a while or more.    

[TJW014]

Anyone living between Erie, PA and Niagara Falls, NY is going to get crushed with lake-effect. 

[SnoSki14]

Ugly pattern coming up with an array of cutters that will continue to generate plenty of rainfall and mostly mild temps. 

Guidance is all over the place with some looking worse than others and many swapping places. However it's looking more and more likely that any snows will hold off until the 2nd half of December.

[Toekneeweather]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern coming up with an array of cutters that will continue to generate plenty of rainfall and mostly mild temps. 

Guidance is all over the place with some looking worse than others and many swapping places. However it's looking more and more likely that any snows will hold off until the 2nd half of December.

Give it some time once the pattern reloads we will get our shot. You’ve gotta remember November and early December gets a lot of cutters. Besides I wouldn’t trust the models past 5 days. But the pattern is not terrible around December 4th and on!

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern coming up with an array of cutters that will continue to generate plenty of rainfall and mostly mild temps. 

Guidance is all over the place with some looking worse than others and many swapping places. However it's looking more and more likely that any snows will hold off until the 2nd half of December.

Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.

[North and West]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.

Isn't this an annual rite of passage each winter?

[Gravity Wave]

14 hours ago, Zelocita Weather said:

93/94, 02/03, 10/11, 13/14, 14/15 all pretty close to (if not) wall to wall good winter weather

13/14 and 14/15 had very impressive cold from January on, but December was unremarkable, at least in Ithaca.

[uncle W]

December in NYC averages 60 degrees for the monthly max...usually when it comes early in the month it's better than coming Christmas day like in 1964...Dec. 1960 had two straight days over 60 the first week of the month...the second week there was a 15-20" blizzard...Dec. 1966 had four straight days 60 or higher from the 8th-11th...There was snow in the air on the 13th...1968 was 60 degrees on the 13th...there was 5" of snow on the 15th...it was 66 on Dec. 3rd 2009...two weeks later there was 11" of snow...analog 1963 was 58 degrees on the 8th...there was 2.3" of snow on the 12th...

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

13/14 and 14/15 had very impressive cold from January on, but December was unremarkable, at least in Ithaca.

Dec 2013 had a mid month snow event here, but that was about it,  Dec 2014 was nada.   took really til Jan 20, 2015 for that winter to kick in, but boy when it did....WOW

[NycStormChaser]

My footage from High tide this morning in Howard Beach, Queens. 

 

[North and West]

42 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

My footage from High tide this morning in Howard Beach, Queens. 

 

Yikes - be safe!

[donsutherland1]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1023
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

Areas affected...NYC Metro Area, New Jersey, SE Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261810Z - 270000Z

Summary...A period of moderate, to occasionally heavy, rain is
likely across the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to New York City
this afternoon and early this evening. Over 1 inch of rain is
possible in under 6 hours, which could lead to new or worsening
flooding across the area. Most of the rivers in the area are
running higher than average with some places of ongoing flooding
already.

Discussion...Surface observations suggest a weak surface wave or
surface low is trying to form near the Lower Chesapeake Bay. This
low should continue developing in the next few hours and lift into
New Jersey by late afternoon, per the 12Z HREF. Enhanced low-level
convergence is likely near and just ahead of the low, where strong
south-southeast winds (advecting moisture northward) will begin to
meet a cooler, continental air mass and weaker northeasterly flow
just inland from the coast. The expected configuration of the
developing low and associated coastal front should focus an area
of heavier rainfall in the I-95 corridor this afternoon and early
this evening. The surface low will be lifting north steadily, so
the rain should not linger for a very long time. However, a 3-6
hour period of moderate to heavy rain appears likely.

12Z HREF 40km neighborhood probabilities of over 1 inch of rain
are as high as 70-80 percent in this area, indicating relatively
high confidence that some location(s) in this relatively confined
region will receive that amount of rainfall. However,
probabilities using a variable radius method (that accounts for
ensemble agreement on the precise placement of those amounts) are
much lower. This suggests that 1 inch amounts are unlikely to be
widespread, and there is not great model agreement on where they
will occur.

6-hour flash flood guidance in portions of the area is around 1
inch, so localized 1 inch amounts would be likely to at least
approach FFG and perhaps exceed it. Observed streamflow across the
region is generally above the 95th percentile, and some rivers are
already above flood stage. The elevated soil moisture and high
river levels should reduce infiltration and could lead to general
runoff issues across the area, as will the large amount of
impervious surfaces in the urban corridor. In summary, despite a
lack of exceptional rain rates, antecedent conditions would favor
some localized new flooding issues, or worsening of existing
flooding, this afternoon and evening.

Lamers

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41247436 41217374 40847336 40467349 40037392
            39797471 39737532 40007578 40377574 40717534
            41107483

---

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

My footage from High tide this morning in Howard Beach, Queens. 

 

 You would think that by now residents in the area would follow the coastal flood forecasts and move their cars to higher ground

[NycStormChaser]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

 You would think that by now residents in the area would follow the coastal flood forecasts and move their cars to higher ground

Agreed. Although I do think a lot of people park on the street who take the train to work or the air train to the airport at JFK. Why people in small cars think they can drive through it though is beyond me. 

[TJW014]

1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

My footage from High tide this morning in Howard Beach, Queens. 

 

That whoever was driving that white van needed to slow down. I remember at work there was someone who went 40 into a foot of water and floated about 20 cars on the street. Not to mention that he flooded his car as well. Way too fast driving into that water, even if he was going only 15 mph. Turn around, don't drown.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Agreed. Although I do think a lot of people park on the street who take the train to work or the air train to the airport at JFK. Why people in small cars think they can drive through it though is beyond me. 

That’s a lot higher then I would have expected with no coastal flood warning. That’s solid moderate flooding. 

[Dan76]

NYZ179-271100-
Southern Nassau-
449 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

NYZ179-271100-
Southern Nassau-
449 AM EST Mon Nov 26 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

Must have been issued last minute. My mistake.

 

the incoming slug of moisture is super impressive 

[Rtd208]

Pouring here at the moment.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I don't really see an end to the cold pattern. 

[MJO812]

Storm threat 6-10?