winterwx21 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: December still might be stormy and cold but not the first week. GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Just now, winterwx21 said: GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week. Gfs is much better than 6z The blocking is doing the work on this run. The op runs will change alot. The interior should watch tuesday. The models are starting to pop the coastal low earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is much better than 6z The blocking is doing the work on this run. The op runs will change alot. The interior should watch tuesday. The models are starting to pop the coastal low earlier. 88 ,,,,THIS is what I was thinking with my earlier post about Tuesday and the back end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 GEFS doesn't look too bad, it keeps heights mostly BN through the majority of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week. Probably rushing things a bit, although still good to see of course. At this point I'm about ready to close the shades and punt today-December 10th or so, but I think our chances improve mid-month on. Patience! It's only November 24th! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 3 hours ago, Stormman96 said: Starting to get that worry feeing. Last week I kept thinking this is a bad sign for winter lovers that we are getting an early season snowstorm. Usually in past more often then not leads to snowless winters. Even while at sametime everyone was saying how good pattern was looking to end November and start December. Kept hearing from multiple sources that we would have a high chance of 2 or more winter storm threats in first week of December. Now things are already changing and not looking so promising early December. Now im hearing perhaps mid to late December this reminds me of a winter in the past not sure what year. But kept hearing cold an snow was coming. It was always 2 more weeks. Next think I knew it was april. Just venting. But hopefully thats not the case this year I used to think this due to 1989 and 2011. However 2002, 1995 and 2012 had November snows and they were good to great winters. I think its random luck and the following winter determined by the background state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I started a new 2010's snowfall climatology thread for anyone who wants to guess the date of our next 12"+ snowstorm. I included the dates and amounts of all the storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 A lot of rain incoming, Nam spits out 2"+, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3" amounts with some flooding/run off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A lot of rain incoming, Nam spits out 2"+, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3" amounts with some flooding/run off. Yeah I am starting to think amounts tonight may wind up being more then expected. Some 2-3" rainfall amounts would not surprise me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 The rainfall amounts definitely seem to be over performing to our south from some of the reports that I am seeing in the Mid Atlantic forum and I would expect the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 Gfs is great Cold and stormy More closer to reality based off the teleconnections. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I like this look although it’s navgem it’s still a decent model. Looks like around 160hrs away or so we can have a low pressure that could overrun some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Better charge your phone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Getting windy here. 15 miles to my south, Beach Haven had a gust of 56 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 LOL at the models which are all, even HRRR trying to shift the heavy rain east too soon while the dry slot is still surging north and NJ/E PA is getting drenched. Coming down good here in Huntington but at this rate the dry slot will be on the South Shore soon. Radar looks like a pinpoint replica of the mid March storm that dumped 24" along I-287 and went dryslot crazy east of there against model predictions. I guess either the 700mb low is tracking west of where models have it again, or dry air is wrapping around it more than models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: LOL at the models which are all, even HRRR trying to shift the heavy rain east too soon while the dry slot is still surging north and NJ/E PA is getting drenched. Coming down good here in Huntington but at this rate the dry slot will be on the South Shore soon. Radar looks like a pinpoint replica of the mid March storm that dumped 24" along I-287 and went dryslot crazy east of there against model predictions. I guess either the 700mb low is tracking west of where models have it again, or dry air is wrapping around it more than models have. I'm in Melville and right now it is pouring. I hope we do dry slot soon---don't need all this rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I'm in Melville and right now it is pouring. I hope we do dry slot soon---don't need all this rain I guess we'll see. If the models are right, the dry slot should stop heading north very soon and the rain pivots east and weakens some as the forcing diminishes. The heaviest amounts should be from us down the NJ shore from here. I'd say it's moderate-heavy where I am. Quite a dynamic little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I guess we'll see. If the models are right, the dry slot should stop heading north very soon and the rain pivots east and weakens some as the forcing diminishes. The heaviest amounts should be from us down the NJ shore from here. I'd say it's moderate-heavy where I am. Quite a dynamic little system. yes--This has certainly been dynamic--I was expecting less rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 As of 10:25 pm, Newark had picked up 0.77" rain. That brings 2018's total to 50.02" precipitation. 2018 is Newark's 18th year on record with 50.00" or more annual precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Up to 0.94" of rain for the day and still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Definitely pouring now. Yikes. Glad I headed back here from LB before this started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Definitely pouring now. Yikes. Glad I headed back here from LB before this started. I left LB around 9 pm for this reason teeming now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Pressure down to 993.75 mb. I can literally watch it drop on my phone (my normal barometer is at 994) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Radar estimating around 2" near Plainfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Just now, CarLover014 said: Pressure down to 993.75 mb. I can literally watch it drop on my phone (my normal barometer is at 994) I don't have any saved radar images of the Mar 7th storm but this looks like its twin from my memory. The dry slot is already making its way onto the South Shore so the LI rain totals the models are showing will probably be a good bit high unless it does a hard right turn this second. Also obviously more heavy rain into N NJ than models had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Really coming down. Thinking this is a 2+ inch event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Approaching 2” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The 30th storm should be watched for the area. PB has been harping about this storm for a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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