MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Today's 12z run of GFS shows it warm for the first few days of the 1st week of December, and then cools it off wednesday-thursday. No snow chances on this run. But obviously it's way too far out to take seriously. The new gfs is way different than the old gfs. Given the blocking , the new gfs is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Where do i find new gfs? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, ALEXA said: Where do i find new gfs? I believe 88 is talking about the FVG its on tropical tidbits and unless I am mistaken it had a decent handle on the last storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018112212&fh=6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Where do i find new gfs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Thanks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 28° will do it for today's high temp...looking for mid teens tonight...Happy Thanksgiving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Um...what cooling cycle? The temperatures for the past few years have been anything but cool. This summer alone set records for highest and most sustained dews with record warm minimums. We are heading into a decadal cooling cycle. The oceans lag behind as they cool much slower than the air but it is coming. Next year you will start to see a difference. The record warm minimums were a result of a consistent Southerly flow all summer off the warm water. Conversely, we didn't see many 90 degree days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: We are heading into a decadal cooling cycle. The oceans lag behind as they cool much slower than the air but it is coming. Next year you will start to see a difference. The record warm minimums were a result of a consistent Southerly flow all summer off the warm water. Conversely, we didn't see many 90 degree days Where are you located? Because I saw the most 90s in a long time here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 The 28 high in NYC today was the 2nd earliest high under 29 and 6th earliest high below 32. It was also the first -24 daily maximum temperature departure since January 6th, 2018. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 I have a feeling the CAA has peaked and the city doesn’t make forecast lows. I’m thinking 20ish in the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Currently 24 here, made it up to 30 this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Down to 20 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Down to 20 here 13.2f 6 inches of snow on the ground. very impressive cold snap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 10 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: I remember the April of 82 storm because of the bright sun and the melting occurring the next day-I don’t recall lots of cold beyond. The feb of 83 was incredible. I do recall some cold temps—-Reagan’s inauguration was bitter-a few blasts of arctic cold but mostly dry and cold as a whole during the decade. 2-4 inches seemed as like it was our range on LI-very rarely exceeeding it. Not at all like today where an 8+ inch event is normal Also when you compare 70s-80s to today it's helpful to notice the changes in NYC vs DC. DC was actually snowier back then than they are now. That shows that storm tracks have become more amped so the higher snowfall totals NYC is now seeing are from storms that would have been suppressed back then. DC is also useful in the sense that if you want to see the future of our climate, thats where it will be coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Central Park's temperature is now 19°. That's the coldest November reading there since November 22, 1987 when the mercury also fell to 19°. Frustrating that neither JFK and LGA dropped into the 20s, they will probably do so tonight. Ironic that this is the earliest Thanksgiving can ever be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have a feeling the CAA has peaked and the city doesn’t make forecast lows. I’m thinking 20ish in the park Already down to 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 hours ago, uncle W said: January 9th, 1978 to Feb. 7th, 1978 was probably the stormiest winter period on record for this area... dates............precip...snowfall 1/08-09/78....1.14".....1.0" 1/13-14/78....1.37".....3.0" 1/17-18/78....1.93".....1.7" 1/19-20/78....1.50"...13.6" 1/25-26/78....2.25"......0... 2/06-07/78....1.13"...17.7" What about winters 1993-94 and 2010-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 8 hours ago, bluewave said: While stations like Newark beat that snowfall total from late December to January 10-11, the Jan 78 ice storm was more impressive than any of the 2010's so far. Our snowstorms during the 2010's have been bigger than earlier eras. But none of the recent ice storms can rival Feb 78 or Jan 94. For sheer frequency of storms as well as our biggest ice storm, it's 1993-94 all the way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Frustrating that neither JFK and LGA dropped into the 20s, they will probably do so tonight. Ironic that this is the earliest Thanksgiving can ever be. I agree. JFK's November record low is 19° and LGA's is 17°. It will be interesting to see if JFK and perhaps LGA approach or reach their monthly records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 7 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I've basically been on the low end of most of the storms in recent years, with Jan 2016 being the exception. The Jan 82 storm was the infamous one that brought down the plane into the Potomac in DC. big el ninos are the best for us, Feb 83, PD2 and Jan 2016 are my three largest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: From this morning (22° and sunny): Happy Thanksgiving Day to all. Save the turkeys! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: Tbh, I think that most people (at least in this forum) believe that it’s just as equal to take a measurement from Logan compared to downtown. If most people here looked on a map and saw how relatively close Logan was to Downtown Boston they would think that difference would be minimal. There is quite the microclimate there from the shores of Winthrop to the Back Bay of Boston just like the difference from KLGA to KNYC Or JFK to LGA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have a feeling the CAA has peaked and the city doesn’t make forecast lows. I’m thinking 20ish in the park JFK will probably get into the teens since they do well with radiational cooling- better than the city anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The 28 high in NYC today was the 2nd earliest high under 29 and 6th earliest high below 32. It was also the first -24 daily maximum temperature departure since January 6th, 2018. when was the earliest? In 1987? or maybe 1976? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: big el ninos are the best for us, Feb 83, PD2 and Jan 2016 are my three largest. Indeed, for big storms yes. Not sure if 96 was in that camp. But I prefer years like 94 or 2014 with lots of smaller but decent events. Those two footers are hard to deal with for me. Not that I don't enjoy the hell out of them.....95-96 was a rare year with both lots of smaller events and one huge one, 2010-11 would have been but winter was over mid-Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Indeed, for big storms yes. Not sure if 96 was in that camp. But I prefer years like 94 or 2014 with lots of smaller but decent events. Those two footers are hard to deal with for me. Not that I don't enjoy the hell out of them.....95-96 was a rare year with both lots of smaller events and one huge one, 2010-11 would have been but winter was over mid-Feb. Yes 1995-96 was the crown jewel of winters and funny it was a weak la nina, but with blocking you can get big snows in any enso, as 2010-11 also showed with an even stronger la nina. The difference might have been that la ninas that come after el ninos are usually really good- and the summers between them are also usually really hot and dry (which I also love). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: when was the earliest? In 1987? or maybe 1976? The earliest high below 29 was 11-21-1879. With the earliest high below freezing occurring on 11-14-1873. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What about winters 1993-94 and 2010-11 they were stormy but not like 77-78... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The earliest high below 29 was 11-21-1879. With the earliest high below freezing occurring on 11-14-1873. wow I just transposed the middle two digits on the first one ;-) so in both cases we are talking about 1800s. I wonder if this winter will be as rare as 1995-96 or 2010-11 when we were pulling old analogs like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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