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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.8[47.6].      Should be -2.7[45.1] by the 29th.

Meanwhile it is 38 here at 6am.     Should be 20 this same time tomorrow.

Looks like all the wet periods the next 15 days have AN temps. and rain for us.    So the beautiful cold goes to waste.

You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward.  I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter 

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1 hour ago, tim said:

...ideal radiational cooling conditions for thurs. nite/friday morning..according to NWS

latest forecast discussion..they have a low of 5* for KFOK friday morning..i'm thinking i should achieve

a single digit low also..

What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at?  I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead?

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season.

 

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season.

 

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15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

Most of those were in non El Niño years. I think that stat is heavily skewed by La Niña years which tend to be cold early like 1989 or 1996.  Though 87-88 wasn’t a snowy winter here I do believe it was fairly cold or at least near normal.   

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19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for this information. I did see the PNS and was surprised to see how little snow had been reported at Logan Airport.

 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought I saw a report of 2.6" at Logan? The 0.1" must be a typo or error

 

15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Logan is surrounded by water east of downtown Boston.  That measurement is believable, assuming it's not a typo.  I noted a trace on the beach vs an inch and a half on the ground a quarter mile inland on the north shore of LI during the first part of the snowfall.  "Load of crap" is a tad harsh.

:)

 

 

12 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

There was a measurement in the NE thread from someone who lives less than a mile from the airport and they received 1.7”

 I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm

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years with at least 4" of snow in November and what followed...the only el nino winter was 1896-97 and Dec. got 13" from two storms...one just before Christmas...it had the only white Christmas I think...

1882-83...14.0" in November...30" more fell that season but only a trace in Dec...

1892-93.....6.3" in November...43" more fell that season but Dec. had only 3"...3" fell in Dec...

1898-99...19.0" in November...37" more fell that winter including a Ludlum storm in February...only 1.5" in dec...

1896-97.....5.0" in November...39" more fell that winter including a major storm in Jan...13" fell in Dec...

1938-39...12.8" in November...24" more fell that winter including another 9" storm in January...1.7" fell in Dec...

1989-90.....4.7" in November.....9" more fell that winter...Dec had 1.4"...8

2012-13.....4.7" in November...21" more fell that winter including an 11" storm in Feb...Dec. had 0.4"...

2018-19.....6.4" in November...

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30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s.   Snow was so rare then

The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck.  We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could 

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18 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

 

 

 

 

 I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm

Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago.  It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there.  I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago.  It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there.  I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN 

From what I was told by a Met in the NE thread, the NWS rules for measurement location of an ASOS site can be within a certain radius of said ASOS. For KBOS, Winthrop falls under that radius so some guy just measures from his house, Taunton/Norton accepts it and it goes down as the official measurement for Boston. Not sure what the situation is like down in Philly but I know that people in this regional forum (which would include myself before I moved there a couple of years ago) will like the fact that Boston will often measure low and that gives KNYC a chance to "beat" Boston during nor'easters. 

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7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

From what I was told by a Met in the NE thread, the NWS rules for measurement location of an ASOS site can be within a certain radius of said ASOS. For KBOS, Winthrop falls under that radius so some guy just measures from his house, Taunton/Norton accepts it and it goes down as the official measurement for Boston. Not sure what the situation is like down in Philly but I know that people in this regional forum (which would include myself before I moved there a couple of years ago) will like the fact that Boston will often measure low and that gives KNYC a chance to "beat" Boston during nor'easters. 

Which is rare and always fun when it happens lol

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26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck.  We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could 

As a kid growing up in mid Nassau county, countless times the storms would affect “north and west” of the Tappen Zee Bridge in a much different manner than on Long Island.  

Cold rain here was the norm.   I have to change my thinking on upcoming storms.   The last storm was a perfect example of the type of storm that would change to a cold rain on LI-maybe a few flakes mixed in

 

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10 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

As a kid growing up in mid Nassau county, countless times the storms would affect “north and west” of the Tappen Zee Bridge in a much different manner than on Long Island.  

Cold rain here was the norm.   I have to change my thinking on upcoming storms.   The last storm was a perfect example of the type of storm that would change to a cold rain on LI-maybe a few flakes mixed in

 

same deal living just NW of Philly as a kid-Allentown and Reading where the places to be for the big snows-we were often snow to rain or just a cold rain

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same deal living just NW of Philly as a kid-Allentown and Reading where the places to be for the big snows-we were often snow to rain or just a cold rain

I now live in Suffolk and my kids think that snow days are a given, every year.   They have no idea how lucky they are to be in this type of pattern.   

Given how it has flipped I wonder if this is the new normal

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11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down.

A radical change from two days ago. 

The 11/21/2018 0z EPS shows the block over Canada poking into the East during hours 240-288 creating some ridging in the East. However, after hour 288, the trough is back in place and remains there through the remainder of the run.

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43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 11/21/2018 0z EPS shows the block over Canada poking into the East during hours 240-288 creating some ridging in the East. However, after hour 288, the trough is back in place and remains there through the remainder of the run.

The ridging should be enough that we see a big cutter in early December. 

Also very little cold to speak of in late November/early December. We'll probably be waiting a lot longer before things become more favorable for us. 

However the early blocking pattern is a really good sign for Jan/Feb as they tend to repeat. AO looks to tank to -4 or lower.

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All-time record low temperatures for the month of November are falling with the Arctic front moving south through Canada.

Overnight low of -33.6°C in Wabush, NL is the coldest temperature ever recorded in November. Previous was -33.1°C on Nov 20, 1986. Records kept since 1960. #NLwx #Labrador
 
Intense cold in the #Maritimes smashed record lows this morning in NB & PEI. With -15.2°C, #Charlottetown recorded its coldest November low on record (since 1943)! #NBwx #MeteoQC #PEwx pic.twitter.com/ueTQCkJfnm
 
 
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A little over reaction or "reaction" from last Thursday:

From NYC Dept of Sanitation Twitter account:

More

A snow squall is in the forecast for NYC Wed. afternoon, with a coating to less than an inch of snow possible. Our salt spreaders are ready across the five boroughs, and we will pre-salt elevated areas & overpasses ahead of potential snow.

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2 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

I now live in Suffolk and my kids think that snow days are a given, every year.   They have no idea how lucky they are to be in this type of pattern.   

Given how it has flipped I wonder if this is the new normal

Until the dreaded winter where everything goes wrong for us and it’s wall to wall 60s and no snow. It’s coming one day...

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36 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

A little over reaction or "reaction" from last Thursday:

From NYC Dept of Sanitation Twitter account:

More

A snow squall is in the forecast for NYC Wed. afternoon, with a coating to less than an inch of snow possible. Our salt spreaders are ready across the five boroughs, and we will pre-salt elevated areas & overpasses ahead of potential snow.

Jersey too. Per NJ.com, Murphy has over 100 trucks ready to go!

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The ridging should be enough that we see a big cutter in early December. 

Also very little cold to speak of in late November/early December. We'll probably be waiting a lot longer before things become more favorable for us. 

However the early blocking pattern is a really good sign for Jan/Feb as they tend to repeat. AO looks to tank to -4 or lower.

Blocking is already in place and will be for the foreseeable future.

Things will become favorable in early December.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All-time record low temperatures for the month of November are falling with the Arctic front moving south through Canada.

Overnight low of -33.6°C in Wabush, NL is the coldest temperature ever recorded in November. Previous was -33.1°C on Nov 20, 1986. Records kept since 1960. #NLwx #Labrador
 
Intense cold in the #Maritimes smashed record lows this morning in NB & PEI. With -15.2°C, #Charlottetown recorded its coldest November low on record (since 1943)! #NBwx #MeteoQC #PEwx pic.twitter.com/ueTQCkJfnm
 
 

the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada. 

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