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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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MOS numbers hinting at the potential first NYC drop below 20 degrees in November since 1987. 

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   11/19/2018  1200 UTC                      
 DT /NOV  19/NOV  20                /NOV  21                /NOV  22 
 HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 
 N/X                    40          47          33          38    17 
 TMP  46 46 45 45 44 43 42 41 45 44 42 39 37 36 35 35 36 34 31 25 19 
 DPT  40 40 40 39 39 38 37 35 34 31 29 25 24 23 23 21 19 17 14  5 -2 

IMG_0339.thumb.PNG.6529e3d3c6a9bf5446af000e2995fb2b.PNG

 

 

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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 = real question for us uninformed,,,,,,what are Tellies ? Weeklies ? Are they the same thing ? Where can one find them ? thanks in advance

Let’s just ban that awul word. 

Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies  

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Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). 

Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility.

However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. 

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after this November the decade average temperature will drop and snowfall will go up...since the 1950's November is averaging 47.8 in NYC...2018 will be well below that...it is possible we could see the coldest Thanksgiving on record...the coldest was 19 in 1876 and another year...the 2010's will be the first decade to average at least an inch of snow since the 1930's...the average minimum should drop a degree to the 1960's average...

decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall...

1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0.............................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9"

1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8"

1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3"

1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3"

1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2"

1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1"

1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2"

1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6"

1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5"

1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3"

1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3"

1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6"

1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3"

2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace

2010's.....47.9.....51.9.....43.9.....70.1.....29.5.....74.....22.....2.96".....0.7".....2010-2017

1870-

2009........46.2...........................69.7.....25.6........................3.55".....0.8"

1980-

2009........48.0...........................71.5.....27.5........................4.05".....0.3"

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25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Let’s just ban that awul word. 

Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies  

That would be great, tellies sounds very weird and I don’t like it... maybe we can say Tconns if really short on time or just say teleconnections.

It looks like it will become warmer and then it will become cool again around 11/27 or 11/28. I don’t think we’ll see any more snow this month but I think that 12/3 to 12/10 is a time to watch.

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). 

Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility.

However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. 

Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO?

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Earliest 0 on record for Caribou, Maine.

New record low temperature set at Caribou for Nov 19...0 degrees breaks the old record of 1 set in 1992 and marks the earliest zero or lower reading on record. Houlton also set a daily minimum record with a -8 reading breaking the old record of 1 set in 1992. #mewx

Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above.

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51 minutes ago, doncat said:

Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above.

Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations can be an indicator of further near to record cold at some point from December to March.

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