LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 53 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days. In other news, it looks like the NWS is sticking to its guns for a warmer-than-normal winter for a majority of the USA in its updated winter outlook, surprisingly: It's even more amazing since this is the earliest that Thanksgiving can ever be, since November 1 was on a Thursday. If you read between the lines about where the warmest anomalies are expected (the Pac NW), that usually means the coolest anomalies are on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: It all depends on the timing of the Arctic front. Thanksgiving may have one of those highs right after midnight. It could remain in the 20’s during the afternoon which would still be impressive. Friday may be a radiational cooling morning before temperatures rebound during the afternoon and evening. Most wintry Thanksgiving I can remember was Thanksgiving 1989- it would be really hard to match that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The CPC output's are like a child's finger painting exercise, except this child has just one color to work with. Every 3 month period for the next year is AN or just NORMAL, everywhere. Surely this can not be right, even with global warming. It could not even get this month right with a low lead time. It's always been that way, I wonder what kind of data they use on that model, nothing like the Euro that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Most wintry Thanksgiving I can remember was Thanksgiving 1989- it would be really hard to match that! I got 10" the day before Thanksgiving 2014 here in Mahopac. That's the most wintry Turkey day I remember, I was in Steamboat CO in '89 and we had a beautiful, warm one out there that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Nam shifting south for Tuesday's little system Nmm and arw shifted south from 18z for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 40degs. again or about 5degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7[48.2]. Should be -2.5[45.6] by the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Euro has temps around 20° for turkey morning and mainly teens Friday am. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, doncat said: Euro has temps around 20° for turkey morning and mainly teens Friday am. Very cold Wednesday through Friday next week. Lows in the teens...more appropriate for mid-January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 10 hours ago, Snow88 said: Nam shifting south for Tuesday's little system Nmm and arw shifted south from 18z for Tuesday Im not sure what the Nam looked like yesterday but the FV3 now has it colder for interior on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 53 minutes ago, doncat said: Euro has temps around 20° for turkey morning and mainly teens Friday am. Yeah, it has a top 5 coldest Thanksgiving for NYC. The Arctic front comes through around midnight with the daily high. Afternoon temperatures remain in the 20's. Northerly flow cold air drain down the Hudson Valley with no Great Lakes modification. Thanksgiving Euro temperatures for NYC....lower in the surrounding areas 12am..........30 6 am...........20 12pm..........26 3pm............27 6pm............23 9pm............20 12 am Fri.....19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Tuesday is a pretty good example of a setup that is snow 4 weeks from now easily but isn’t this week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 What are the winds like for the parade? That set up is concerning for gusty NW winds, which could ground balloons for first time since the Cat and the Hat debacle in the 90s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: What are the winds like for the parade? That set up is concerning for gusty NW winds, which could ground balloons for first time since the Cat and the Hat debacle in the 90s From the aviation portion of OKX AFD this morning: .Wednesday Night-Thursday...VFR. NW winds 15G25kt. From the marine portion of the same AFD: Winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. An arctic front move across the waters Wednesday night bringing SCA and low chance of gale conditions Wednesday night into Thursday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 The Thanksgiving Arctic outbreak will get a boost from the 2nd highest mid-November NA snow extent of the last 13 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 ^^Lowest my station has ever been in November is 17 degrees...could be challenging that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Coldest temperatures for November in NYC since 1950...2018 could make this list on Thanksgiving day... 16...11/29/1955 17...11/30/1976 18...11/21/1987 20...11/15/1967 21...11/21/1959 21...11/24/1970 21...11/23/1972 22...11/24/1956 22...11/14/1986 22...11/25/2005 22...11/19/2014 23...11/22/1989 23...11/28/1996 23...11/24/2000 23...11/22/2008 23...11/24/2013 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2013 & 2014 were quite the banner years for cold recently. That -EPO has been doing wonders for November cold. The snow cover to our north will aide with the Arctic shot too, I fully expect teens in the suburbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 hours ago, doncat said: ^^Lowest my station has ever been in November is 17 degrees...could be challenging that. 1976? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The Thanksgiving Arctic outbreak will get a boost from the 2nd highest mid-November NA snow extent of the last 13 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Biggest and quickest snow and sea ice recovery ever going from late September to late November? We had our latest sea ice minimum this year, around the first day of fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 3 hours ago, uncle W said: Coldest temperatures for November in NYC since 1950...2018 could make this list on Thanksgiving day... 16...11/29/1955 17...11/30/1976 18...11/21/1987 20...11/15/1967 21...11/21/1959 21...11/24/1970 21...11/23/1972 22...11/24/1956 22...11/14/1986 22...11/25/2005 22...11/19/2014 23...11/22/1989 23...11/28/1996 23...11/24/2000 23...11/22/2008 23...11/24/2013 Coldest maximums since 1960 for November in NYC... 11/22...32 in 1964 11/22...32 in 1972 11/22...32 in 2008 11/23...31 in 1989 11/24...30 in 2013 11/28...31 in 1996 11/29...28 in 1955 11/30...28 in 1958 11/30...27 in 1976 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 FV3-GFS is close to a One-Two-Punch scenario along mid-atlantic and northeast November 29th & Dec 2nd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dino said: FV3-GFS is close to a One-Two-Punch scenario along mid-atlantic and northeast November 29th & Dec 2nd. That’s so far why not pay attention to Tuesday’s system. It could trend 30-50 miles south and at least you’ll have white rain, possibly more if it develops stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: That’s so far why not pay attention to Tuesday’s system. It could trend 30-50 miles south and at least you’ll have white rain, possibly more if it develops stronger. Behave yourself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 1976? That's just before my records started lol....1987 is the record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: That's just before my records started lol....1987 is the record. Was that around the Vets Day snowstorm? I think that fringed us with a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Behave yourself Is that Tony? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. BN, despite some very low readings for two days. Month to date is -1.9[47.8]. Should be -2.2[45.7] by the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Was that around the Vets Day snowstorm? I think that fringed us with a couple inches. Yes I did record 2" of snow around vets day...the record cold was around a week later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 The Euro has us close to the lowest 850 mb temperatures during November since the 1950's. It has OKX 850 mb temperatures getting down to -18c to -19c early on Thanksgiving. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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