SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? What model does that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What model does that ? Euro moves the cold in and out for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Gfs does too though it lingers a bit more. Just going off the OP runs here. It makes sense given the more unfavorable teleconnections for 2nd half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? Chill out, cutters are more then normal during fall . I can see the panick already it’s November 6th R-E-L-A-X.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro moves the cold in and out for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Gfs does too though it lingers a bit more. It makes sense given the more unfavorable teleconnections for 2nd half of November. The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days I agree that surface temps will still average BN for that period given averages are in the 50s. Regardless, I'm not worried because November is not a winter month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said: Chill out, cutters are more then normal during fall . I can see the panick already it’s November 6th R-E-L-A-X.... we want storms-that's what's important right now-some of our snowiest winters had a parade of November cutters.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Picked up 0.75" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: we want storms-that's what's important right now-some of our snowiest winters had a parade of November cutters.... Exactly, that’s why we have had how many big November snow storms in most of our life times? The Thanksgiving storm in the late 80s and the post sandy storm. Maybe above 1k NW of the city there have been a couple more. The fact that we have some cold air in play is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Models look quite wet for Friday afternoon and evening. Seems like we're getting rain every 3 or 4 days with nice weather in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly, that’s why we have had how many big November snow storms in most of our life times? The Thanksgiving storm in the late 80s and the post sandy storm. Maybe above 1k NW of the city there have been a couple more. The fact that we have some cold air in play is a good sign. Don't forget the day before T-giving 2014. I had a foot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Don't forget the day before T-giving 2014. I had a foot here. Hence my NW of the city. Late season storms are much more common then early for the coast. It’s really simple, the offshore waters are still warm in November. Just look at October 11 with SE queens getting more snow then the north shore hills of Nassau which average close to 10” more a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Cold storm on the cmc and Gfs for next week Big hit for the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cold storm on the cmc and Gfs for next week Big hit for the interior Something to track now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Models look quite wet for Friday afternoon and evening. Seems like we're getting rain every 3 or 4 days with nice weather in between The wet theme continues for Friday on the 00z runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cold storm on the cmc and Gfs for next week Big hit for the interior Like I mentioned elsewhere, it wouldn't surprise me if the NYC metro/coast gets a couple of inches or so of snow out of the storm next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Picked up 0.77" of rain for the day yesterday. 2 day total of 1.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Euro op completely loses the cold and cuts even more inland with next week's system. OP runs have been all over the place lately with tremendous variations and inconsistencies from run to run. Guess that's the Nino/Nina influences still battling each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 2/3degs. BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Like I mentioned elsewhere, it wouldn't surprise me if the NYC metro/coast gets a couple of inches or so of snow out of the storm next week. Para gfs is nice for everyone even on the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1.31" rain mon-tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 November is keeping it's reputation during the 2010's as a month where cold starts to battle with with the fall warmth. Only 1 September since 2010 in a NYC with a slightly colder than average temperature. All the Octobers have been warmer than normal. But in recent years, we have seen how the -EPO has introduced more fall cold than has been the case for September and October. So after a warm start to November, it looks like the middle portion of the month will average out colder than normal. Cool down #1 Cool down #2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Anyone seen the FV3-GFS? If that becomes true, a real slammer for next week in New England. But I think that's very bullish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 another stormy friday night. nam has mucape near 1k for us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 00z is holding a lot more energy back for 11/14 than 18z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 00z is holding a lot more energy back for 11/14 than 18z was. Another win for the Euro and a lot more rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 4/5 degs. BN. Month to date is +5.6[56.9]. Should be just +0.20[50.1] by the time we head into the second half of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 Shouldn't be looking at too much wind, correct? That storm back on the 27th and 28th of October really took a toll on the beach. All our tax dollars to replenish it went out to sea (literally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 For the second month in a row, the first week was exceptionally warm in the New York City area. During the November 1-7 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 56.9°, which ranked 16th warmest on record for that period. This was also the warmest November 1-7 period following an October 16-31 period when NYC had a mean temperature below 50°. Just as had been the case in October, a period of colder than normal weather appears likely to follow. Such warmth during the first week of November does not necessarily mean that the winter will experience below normal snowfall. Since 1869, New York City has had 20 prior cases where the temperature averaged 56.0° or above during the first week in November. Mean snowfall for the winter ahead was 25.0" and median snowfall was 23.4". However, if one broke those cases into subsets, December snowfall provided a powerful clue as to the overall seasonal snowfall. In cases where December saw 1.0" or more snow, the respective mean and median seasonal snowfall figures were 31.1" and 31.9". 54% of such cases saw 30" or more snow while 23% saw less than 20". The mean and median figures were even higher from that subset following Novembers with 4.00" or more precipitation as appears likely to be the case this year. However, when it comes to the wet November cases within this subset, a lot of caution is required due to potential sample size issues. In contrast, in the cases where less than 1.0" snow fell in December, the respective mean and median figures were 15.8" and 15.5". In that subset, 13% of winters saw 30" or more snow while 75% saw less than 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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