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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Just now, CarLover014 said:

I was looking at the GFS from 10 November to 18 November. A little far out, and i hope i see more red than blue/purple

 

Here is it`s new week 2 forecast , this will bust worse than last weeks week 2.

 

DrUvZTBU0AUwiuB.jpg

 

It`s not just the weeklies 

 

DrUvQhUVYAE3ShY.jpg

 

Every model sees what`s coming before we moderate.

 

DrSBV04XQAIyCVc.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Surprised at the lack of any flood watches given the highly saturated ground and high local rivers and streams. 

Especially with what East Pennsylvania got the past few days. Hopefully this squall line will be moving at a good clip and we get less than an inch

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54 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

When isn't it nice down there, other than the occasional tropical system? Which reminds me, family is coming up from there this weekend. Let the complaining begin!

When it's just plain uncomfortably humid for weeks on end.

 

Ooh boy pea soup fog and rain :( It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood...

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Just now, bluewave said:

These November -EPO cold shots into the US have been impressive since 2013. They have been pretty reliable with the NPM going through the roof.

npm.png.b14ee36a679635d8f8de58eeb755ed3c.png

 

 

 

Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top.

I posted the  D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top.

I believe the values rival 02 at this point ?  So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15.  I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March.

 

Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. 

 

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

When it's just plain uncomfortably humid for weeks on end.

 

Ooh boy pea soup fog and rain :( It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood...

Just my opinion, but I would be chilling on a boat or the beach all year than sitting inside with the heater on for six months. Then when it's nice here, you cant even find a spot at the beach without being surrounded by tourists. I don't mind the cold TOO much, (every once in awhile is nice, and a little snow makes everything look amazing for pictures)

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21 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Just my opinion, but I would be chilling on a boat or the beach all year than sitting inside with the heater on for six months. Then when it's nice here, you cant even find a spot at the beach without being surrounded by tourists. I don't mind the cold TOO much, (every once in awhile is nice, and a little snow makes everything look amazing for pictures)

There are plenty of beaches in the region where you wont be surrounded by others you just have to work for it a little bit although NJ is tougher than LI or RI. Cold is good, it keeps you humble ;) and snow is necessary for a healthy psyche not to mention skiing and fat biking :)  Don't get me wrong, the Lower Keys are high on our list for a landing spot when we move away from the NY Metro in a few years but the NH or ME coast are more likely but I won't be surprised if we find ourselves somewhere around Marathon or Big Pine Key. There's no part of FL that I would consider further north of there though, not even sort of...

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2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top.

I posted the  D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top.

I believe the values rival 02 at this point ?  So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15.  I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March.

 

Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. 

 

Yeah, Ben Noll posted the whole Euro seasonal update for anyone that didn’t get a chance to see them. It’s a very strong +NPM look like some elements we saw 13-14 and 14-15.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1059526651762040833

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025116

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The CFS literally shows the opposite of what's going to happen, it's unbelievable how inaccurate it is. 

It's trash. I've stopped looking at it. It was calling for a major cooldown in September and completely missed the cold start to this month. The fantasy range GFS is considerably more accurate.

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3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top.

I posted the  D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top.

I believe the values rival 02 at this point ?  So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15.  I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March.

 

Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. 

 

I like how things are evolving.

Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea.

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20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I like how things are evolving.

Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea.

Good Afternoon Don it`s great to see you.  Coming from you a 50 inch forecast deserves a wow.  My range for NYC is  between 40 - 50 inches which really would qualify as a great winter.

I think the way things a progressing as well , Modoki / EP water temps / the cool water in the I/O and just the fact that the MJO has been really only coming out in 8 1 2 really since AUG it is my hope that it remains there.

 

 

MJO index GEFS and GFSOP forecast

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

It is my hope we just stay in here going forward 

combined_image.png

 

 

 

 

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