donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 With 0.04" rain in the past hour, Islip's 2018 precipitation total has now reached 50". So far, Islip has recorded 50.03" precipitation this year, which ranks 2018 as the 15th wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. From the analogs posted in response to this, I assume this is good news for those of us who want a snowy winter? In other news the ECM, CMC and GFS are in strong agreement through 240 hours about the cold outbreak. GFS is the coldest for the NE, which is a little surprising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 10:34 AM, bluewave said: There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time. that Feb 2013 snowstorm was really meh west of Suffolk County. Only a foot of snow and about an inch of rain to begin with lol. 2012-13 was more like an average season for us. March was cold but we whiffed on big snowfalls there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 7:39 AM, bluewave said: It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. Strong November cutter pattern Chris how long is the cold weather coming up next weekend supposed to last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 9:10 AM, Drz1111 said: You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall. They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location. That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima. Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb. It has always been thus. Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus. Sunday's weather was perfect. We've had more than enough rain for the whole year already. I want nice and dry and clear blue skies for October and November. Great for fall foliage and stargazing. Not rain and wall to wall SAD conditions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That freeze last year was nuts. My veggie garden went from thriving to gone in a couple hours. Still haven’t had an official freeze in southern Nassau. A couple of 34s with frost. No frost here in SW Nassau and the lowest we got to so far was 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, dWave said: Yeah, in the 5 boros it seems almost completely devoid of color then it's like a switch flipped overnight to peak color. Early Nov is normal peak for NYC but to me it was much less gradual than usual. It went from next to nothing to amazing colors in a few days. and yesterday's weather was PERFECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. Isn't the NAO/AO much harder to predict? this is from OSU: This is another paper about NAO prediction. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y Most important factors they found were fall Barents/Kara Sea Ice, fall wave 1 stratospheric disturbances and fall north Atlantic SST configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 rain shield really broke up-only about .05 here for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Euro is frigid towards the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is frigid towards the end of the run If only now the cold can lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On November 5, 2018 at 12:43 PM, LibertyBell said: Chris how long is the cold weather coming up next weekend supposed to last? Good question. It looks like the middle portion of November will be colder than average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 The Euro Day 10 is a snowstorm run forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Good question. It looks like the middle portion of November will be cold. These November -EPO cold shots since 2013 featured the first freeze and trace of snow for NYC. Yes I see talk of mid November snow in a few subforums lol. The question is will it just be a trace or might we see something more alone the lines of November 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: No frost here in SW Nassau and the lowest we got to so far was 38. I should have clarified that I was talking about SE Nassau. Although there isn’t too much of a diffence in density between the two your proximity to the city heat island definitely keeps you a few degrees warmer on radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I should have clarified that I was talking about SE Nassau. Although there isn’t too much of a diffence in density between the two your proximity to the city heat island definitely keeps you a few degrees warmer on radiational cooling nights. Yes you guys are lucky I look at Farmingdale temps and they are always around 5 degrees colder than us. Sometimes we have the rare radiational cooling night (usually with snowcover) where we are up to 10 degrees colder than JFK and more in line with Farmingdale temps. That kind of night (minus the snowcover) actually happened in late October 2016 when we were in the upper 20s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Cleaned up...back to your regularly scheduled viewing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Cleaned up...back to your regularly scheduled viewing. F-ing Pam 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Three great winters had heavy rains around this time of the month...1947, 1963, 1977...1977 had 9" in two days. ..one bad winter with a deluge during the same period is 1972... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Any severe threat looks like it has diminished for our area according to the SPC. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Another wet day yesterday with 0.35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or just about NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Eps and gefs show a snowy outcome for the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 At 8 am, a cold front was pressing eastward. Rain was again starting to fall in the Middle Atlantic region where 2018 has been among the wettest years on record. By year's end, Baltimore and Reading will likely have established new annual precipitation records. Other locations could have among their 10 wettest years on record. Select Annual Precipitation Totals (through 11/6 8 am): Allentown: 54.74” (9th wettest year on record) Baltimore: 59.14” (3rd wettest year on record) Bridgeport: 48.01” (11th wettest year on record) Harrisburg: 55.83” (4th wettest year on record) Islip: 50.20” (15th wettest year on record) New York City: 52.31” (29th wettest year on record) Newark: 45.22” (36th wettest year on record) Philadelphia: 47.30” (31st wettest year on record) Poughkeepsie: 47.57” (13th wettest year on record) Reading: 58.10” (2nd wettest year on record) Richmond: 56.03” (9th wettest year on record) Scranton: 52.87” (3rd wettest year on record) Washington, DC: 55.15” (6th wettest year on record) Wilmington, NC: 90.21” (wettest year on record; old record: 83.65”, 1877) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 6, 2018 Author Share Posted November 6, 2018 Picked up 0.26" of rain yesterday with more on the way today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Boy, I can't wait for summer. I'd rather stick to the ridiculously humid summer than freeze six month out of the year! 10-15 degrees below average next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Boy, I can't wait for summer. I'd rather stick to the ridiculously humid summer than freeze six month out of the year! 10-15 degrees below average next week. I hear Florida's nice this time of year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 48degs., or just about NORMAL. Will have to see if the back 5 erase the front 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: I hear Florida's nice this time of year.... When isn't it nice down there, other than the occasional tropical system? Which reminds me, family is coming up from there this weekend. Let the complaining begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Why you should never ever use the CFS for anything. Here is it`s miss from 1 week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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