Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Rjay pinned this topic
13 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The first three weeks of Nov. look AN at a record pace.   Curtain of cold descends for good after that.   This from the  RRWT.

It looks accurate though I don't know about record pace with the trough in the central US. 

There's also been a notable decrease in ssts off the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast, so I don't believe the WAR will over perform like in past months. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last 3 days of Oct. averaging 54degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.0[58.4].    Should end month at +1.1[57.9].

All 8 days are averaging 56degs., or about 5/6degs. AN.

RRWT really screwy for first time since I have been  monitoring it.   Now calls next 30 Days Normal, instead of the +5 of yesterday and before.   Will have to chuck it as just another refractory child.   I still have my lucky dice anyway. lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. 

October 18th run

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768

 

 

At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon!  Perfect weather actually.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon!  Perfect weather actually.

It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. 

Strong November cutter pattern

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_us_4.thumb.png.6d325670a52ba156072aa7ce32e3827e.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. 

Strong November cutter pattern

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_us_4.thumb.png.6d325670a52ba156072aa7ce32e3827e.png

 

I would rather have the cutters now then in December or the rest of winter.The thing that I like seeing is the stormy pattern.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall.  They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location.  That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima.  Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb.  It has always been thus.  Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Isnt there a statistic...

If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter?

That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now.

 

There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. 

October 18th run

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768

 

 

It's not like the CFS has been great either. I'm not particularly inclined to trust any temperature predictions beyond 10 days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time.

Actually there is a correlation.

That El Nino winter with the record blizzard was the one time with any significant snow.

 

If you didn’t have that blizzard, Central Park would’ve recorded 2 inches of snow that winter.

 

Go back and look at the records of every time it has snowed before the final week in November. The winter that followed was bad if you liked snow.

 

I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 

I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City

There is plenty of variety in the snowfall seasons following NYC snowfall before the last week of November. I don't think anyone would call March 1956 a bad outcome following the record November 19-20th snow in NYC. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...