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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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This time of year I look at the Feb SOI / Feb heat waves in the SW as signs of what will March will do. The hot/dry Marches in CO and the SW tend to see temperatures hit 75F in Albuquerque by 3/15 or so, and/or SOI values over +10 in February.

SOI is near 0 so far in February, with some hints of big crashes coming in the next week to ten days. No 70s in the forecast yet. 

Almost every February in Albuquerque sees at least a few days in the 60s, so that's not a big deal for March, but in some years it doesn't hit 75F until April.

One of the major stormy periods that showed up for our region in my winter forecast was 2/11-2/17 - and that period does look like it has some potential. The SOI does look primarily negative or neutral for a while now. The "SOI Calvary" should arrive later in the month into March.

2zxNB74.png

 

 

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This time of year I look at the Feb SOI / Feb heat waves in the SW as signs of what will March will do. The hot/dry Marches in CO and the SW tend to see temperatures hit 75F in Albuquerque by 3/15 or so, and/or SOI values over +10 in February.

SOI is near 0 so far in February, with some hints of big crashes coming in the next week to ten days. No 70s in the forecast yet. 

Almost every February in Albuquerque sees at least a few days in the 60s, so that's not a big deal for March, but in some years it doesn't hit 75F until April.

One of the major stormy periods that showed up for our region in my winter forecast was 2/11-2/17 - and that period does look like it has some potential. The SOI does look primarily negative or neutral for a while now. The "SOI Calvary" should arrive later in the month into March.

2zxNB74.png

 

 

Are you thinking CO, including the Front Range, and NM have a decent shot at a stormy pattern from the ~second half of February through March?

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There is still a small chance I'll modify this if the models are completely wrong on the MJO progression over the next few days, but this is what I like for March nationally for my Spring Outlook. My hand drawn map is adjusted much warmer in the East because low solar, high NAO Octobers, high SOI Decembers, and the prior year ENSO (a 25.7C La Nina in 2017-18) all favor warmth in the East and are relatively independent of one another. A blend of March 1958, 1983, 2010 is pretty close to what I expect - its worth noting there aren't many January El Nino readings when the anomaly in Nino 1.2 is higher than 3.4 like it was this year, but 1983 did have that, and is probably the closest individual year to my March map even though I didn't use it as an analog. A blend of 1983, 1990 (x3), 2004, 2010 (x4) for the subsurface 100-180W, 300m down kind of looks like the map below if February is to finish around +0.9 as it is early in the month. The MJO progression should tank the SOI if the models are right, so I went with a pretty wet month nationally.

2YaigFP.png

uaubDed.png

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It looks like the Denver area got up to 5-7" with the second surge of snow this evening. As for my area, I had 1.5" as of mid-day, and I think the second surge of snow didn't really add too much. I will check in the morning.

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Update: 

Fort Collins had a low of -2 degrees

CoCoRAHS observers showed about 2.5-2.7" on average for Fort Collins and Loveland, and around 5" for Denver and 5.5" for Boulder

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Another disappointing snow up here.  I had high hopes for 4-5", but we ended up with a tad more than 1".  It is good to see Denver rack up another decent total. 

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Low temperatures this morning were in the range of -2 to -10

On the West Coast, NWS Seattle is expecting 6-8" for Seattle, with the cold upper level trough creating snow at or near sea level in Washington and Oregon.

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yeah the Wed "storm" (I don't really think it rose to that level) was kind of weird... the foothills themselves did well, but typically we either have good amounts south, or good amounts north. This time the good amounts were right in Denver. We got just under 3 inches at my place south of town.

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17 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Low temperatures this morning were in the range of -2 to -10

On the West Coast, NWS Seattle is expecting 6-8" for Seattle, with the cold upper level trough creating snow at or near sea level in Washington and Oregon.

That's an enormous amount for Seattle. The hills there will make it really tough to get around- good thing it's on a weekend!

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NAM/GFS have roughly 40" for the Oregon Cascades (2.8" of QPF) . I am not sure why the NWS doesn't say this in the Winter Storm Warning. Maybe Portland will see some snow, i.e. their entire annual snowfall of 4" might happen.

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924
NOUS46 KSEW 090224
PNSSEW
WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-091424-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
624 PM PST Fri Feb 8 2019

...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM KING COUNTY...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider            

...Washington...

...King County...
2 NE Renton                  8.0 in    0511 PM 02/08   Public              
Burien                       6.0 in    0526 PM 02/08   Public              
1 WSW Snoqualmie             5.5 in    0504 PM 02/08   Public              
Normandy Park                4.5 in    0530 PM 02/08   Public              
3 NNE Fairwood               4.5 in    0537 PM 02/08   Trained Spotter     
Covington                    4.5 in    0609 PM 02/08   Public             
Issaquah                     4.0 in    0420 PM 02/08   Public              
Maple Valley                 4.0 in    0533 PM 02/08   Public              
Federal Way                  4.0 in    0618 PM 02/08   Public              
North Bend                   3.5 in    0458 PM 02/08   Public              
Burien                       3.5 in    0506 PM 02/08   Trained Spotter     
2 S Covington-Sawyer-W       3.0 in    0429 PM 02/08   Public              
Seatac                       3.0 in    0500 PM 02/08   Official NWS Obs    
Vashon Island                3.0 in    0528 PM 02/08   Public              
3 WSW Seattle                2.0 in    0403 PM 02/08   Public              

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

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As of 5 pm PST, Seattle had picked up 3.0" snow. That brought total snowfall for winter 2018-19 to 5.7". That last winter Seattle had at least as much snow was 2016-17 when 11.2" snow fell. Since 5 pm PST, an additional 0.6"-0.8" snow had fallen.

The last time Seattle received a larger snowfall was February 5-6, 2017 when 7.1" snow fell. There is a chance the current storm could challenge that figure.

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Yesterday, 6.4" snow fell in Seattle. That broke the daily record of 2.9", which was set in 2014, and brought total snowfall for winter 2018-19 to 9.1". That last winter Seattle had at least as much snow was 2016-17 when 11.2" snow fell. Since midnight PST, additional snow has fallen. Seattle's storm total snowfall could now be near 8.0".

The last time Seattle received a larger snowfall than the reported 6.4" was February 5-6, 2017 when 7.1" snow fell. The last time Seattle received more than 8.0" snow was February 16-17, 1990 when 9.8" accumulated.

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773
NOUS46 KSEW 091247
PNSSEW
WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-100047-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
447 AM PST Sat Feb 9 2019

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date                           

...Washington...

...King County...
2 E Renton                   8.0 in    1110 PM 02/08                       
Seatac                       7.2 in    0400 AM 02/09                       
Vashon Island                6.5 in    1005 PM 02/08                       
Normandy Park                5.5 in    0415 AM 02/09                       
Seatac                       5.5 in    0330 AM 02/09                       
Kirkland                     5.0 in    1110 PM 02/08                       
Bellevue                     4.5 in    1047 PM 02/08                       
1 N Seattle                  3.9 in    0130 AM 02/09                       
4 NNE Seattle                2.5 in    0400 AM 02/09                       
Seattle                      2.5 in    0229 AM 02/09                       

...Pierce County...
Puyallup                     8.0 in    0906 PM 02/08                       
Bonney Lake                  7.3 in    1025 PM 02/08                       
University Place             6.0 in    1130 PM 02/08                       
Tacoma                       5.0 in    1002 PM 02/08                       

...Snohomish County...
Everett                      6.5 in    1115 PM 02/08                       
Smokey Point                 5.0 in    0836 PM 02/08                       
Mountlake Terrace            4.0 in    0100 AM 02/09                       

...Thurston County...
Olympia                      5.5 in    0839 PM 02/08                       

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
 

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As of 10 am PST, 7.9" snow fell in Seattle. That brought total snowfall for winter 2018-19 to 10.6". The last winter Seattle had at least as much snow was 2016-17 when 11.2" snow fell. Since midnight PST, additional snow has fallen.

The last time Seattle received a larger snowfall was February 16-17, 1990 when 9.8" accumulated.

The latest PNS is below:

886
NOUS46 KSEW 091819
PNSSEW
WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-100619-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1019 AM PST Sat Feb 9 2019

...SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider            

...Washington...

...Clallam County...
6 SW Agnew                   23.5 in   0900 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
3 SW Port Angeles            21.6 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 E Agnew                    18.0 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
4 ESE Port Angeles           16.8 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 ESE Sequim                 16.5 in   0805 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 SE Sequim                  16.0 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
5 WSW Port Angeles           15.0 in   0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 SSE Port Angeles           14.3 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Port Angeles                 10.7 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Forks 1e                     1.5 in    1100 PM 02/08   COOP

...Grays Harbor County...
Central Park                 2.5 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 NE Quinault                2.4 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Ocean Shores                 1.5 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS   

...Island County...
2 W Freeland                 8.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
3 SSE Langley                7.0 in    0900 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
4 WNW Langley                6.3 in    0630 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 ENE Freeland               6.3 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Freeland                     5.0 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 NE Oak Harbor              4.8 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Coupeville 0.5 WNW           3.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
6 ESE Oak Harbor             2.8 in    0900 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 WNW Coupeville             2.8 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS   

...Jefferson County...
4 WSW Chimacum               15.6 in   0830 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
4 W Port Ludlow              11.0 in   0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 ESE Chimacum               10.5 in   0936 AM 02/09   Public
2 ENE Gardiner               9.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 WSW Port Townsend          7.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Port Townsend                6.0 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 WNW Port Townsend          4.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 W Port Townsend            4.2 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Mt. Craig Snotel             4.0 in    0100 AM 02/09   MESOWEST            
              
...King County...
2 E Woodinville              10.5 in   0843 AM 02/09   Public              
Auburn                       10.0 in   0530 AM 02/09   Public              
2 NW White Center            9.0 in    0931 AM 02/09   Public              
Auburn                       8.0 in    0525 AM 02/09   Public              
1 ESE Seatac                 7.9 in    0953 AM 02/09   Official NWS Obs    
4 SSW Sheridan Beach         7.5 in    0854 AM 02/09   Public              
3 NNW White Center           7.5 in    0839 AM 02/09   Public              
2 E Renton                   7.5 in    0836 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
1 NNW Seattle                7.3 in    0901 AM 02/09   Public              
1 NW Redmond                 7.0 in    0947 AM 02/09   Public              
3 S Sheridan Beach           7.0 in    0811 AM 02/09   Public              
4 N Seattle                  7.0 in    0800 AM 02/09   Public              
2 NNW Burien                 7.0 in    0504 AM 02/09   Public              
1 SW Kirkland                6.8 in    0932 AM 02/09   Public              
3 NNE Seattle                6.7 in    0930 AM 02/09   Public              
1 SE Federal Way             6.3 in    0838 AM 02/09   Public              
2 SSE Sahalee                6.0 in    0901 AM 02/09   Public              
1 SW Renton                  6.0 in    0846 AM 02/09   Public              
3 SSW Shoreline              5.8 in    0844 AM 02/09   Public              
2 S Sheridan Beach           5.5 in    0855 AM 02/09   Public              
3 SSW Shoreline              5.5 in    0845 AM 02/09   Public              
Seattle                      5.3 in    0917 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
3 S Shoreline                4.0 in    0847 AM 02/09   Public              
3 SW Sheridan Beach          4.0 in    0845 AM 02/09   Public              
4 NW Seattle                 4.0 in    0843 AM 02/09   Public              
Seattle                      3.5 in    0737 AM 02/09   NWS Employee        

...Kitsap County...
Port Orchard                 11.0 in   0932 AM 02/09   Public              
Parkwood                     8.5 in    0837 AM 02/09   Public              
1 ENE Navy Yard City         8.5 in    0810 AM 02/09   Public     
Winslow                      8.0 in    0856 AM 02/09   Public              
Port Orchard                 8.0 in    0853 AM 02/09   Public              
1 S Kingston                 8.0 in    0808 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
5 N Poulsbo                  8.0 in    0613 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
1 SE Tracyton                6.5 in    0809 AM 02/09   Public              

...Lewis County...
4 WNW Cinebar                12.2 in   0720 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Mineral                      9.6 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 NE Onalaska                7.9 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 N Curtis                   3.7 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Chehalis                     3.7 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
13 E Packwood                3.6 in    0900 AM 02/09   MESOWEST            
Dryad                        0.4 in    1100 PM 02/08   COOP                

...Pierce County...
Gig Harbor                   12.0 in   0803 AM 02/09   Public              
2 WNW Elk Plain              10.0 in   0855 AM 02/09   Public              
Bonney Lake                  9.3 in    0621 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
2 NE Sumner                  8.3 in    0804 AM 02/09   Public
3 SSE Summit                 8.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Ruston                       7.0 in    0120 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Gig Harbor 7.0 WNW           6.8 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Huckleberry Snotel           6.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   MESOWEST            
Paradise                     4.2 in    0900 AM 02/09   MESOWEST            
              
...San Juan County...
3 SSE Roche Harbor           3.2 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
4 SSW Friday Harbor          3.0 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
3 SSW Roche Harbor           3.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
6 ESE Friday Harbor          2.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
9 ESE Friday Harbor          1.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
5 E Friday Harbor            1.1 in    0650 AM 02/09   COCORAHS

...Skagit County...
Concrete Ppl Fish Stn        4.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COOP                
2 W Snee Oosh                2.5 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
4 E Blanchard                2.5 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Anacortes                    2.5 in    0645 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Anacortes                    2.0 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 E Edison                   1.8 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
2 W Mount Vernon             1.6 in    0730 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Mount Vernon                 1.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 WNW Anacortes              1.5 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
5 N Sedro-woolley            1.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
            
...Snohomish County...
3 N Lake Stevens             7.0 in    0900 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Brier                        6.3 in    0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS
Edmonds                      6.0 in    0841 AM 02/09   Public              
1 SSW Alderwood Manor        6.0 in    0646 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
Mountlake Terrace            5.0 in    0900 AM 02/09   Public              
1 NNE Harbour Pointe         5.0 in    0755 AM 02/09   Public              
Esperance                    5.0 in    0600 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
3 S Lake Stevens             4.0 in    0727 AM 02/09   Public              

...Thurston County...
3 WSW Tumwater               13.1 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
1 WSW Lacey                  10.0 in   0600 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
Olympia                      10.0 in   0700 AM 02/09   COCORAHS
2 SW Lacey                   9.0 in    0642 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
2 SE Olympia                 8.5 in    0806 AM 02/09   Public              
Grand Mound                  6.3 in    0801 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
2 ENE Rainier                6.0 in    0716 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter     
4 WNW Olympia                5.5 in    0950 AM 02/09   Trained Spotter

...Whatcom County...
7 S Mount Baker              4.0 in    0600 AM 02/09   MESOWEST            
4 ESE Van Zandt              2.5 in    0800 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
8 NNE Concrete               2.0 in    0600 AM 02/09   NWS                 
Glacier                      1.6 in    0715 AM 02/09   COCORAHS            
     
...WIND REPORTS...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider            

...Washington...

...Whatcom County...
2 ENE Marietta               64 MPH    0742 AM 02/09   ASOS                

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

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The -PDO profile in January (at least on the NOAA PDO site) is consistent with things like snow in Seattle and the current US Temperature pattern for February.

Very strong positive correlations to temps in the NW, basically centered on Seattle with the -PDO for February.

TTHssa1.png

No positive PDO til that box is cold -

ntlTMjs.png

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Amazing stuff in the PNW, more meh around here. NWS 6-10 and 11-14 day forecasts have been pretty consistent on much better than average chances of cold and wet around here. Anything in the models? Even fantasy range would be OK, at least it's something to think about.

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Surprising, just as your posted that (11 hrs ago,) the GFS and Canadian runs since this morning have started to show a storm on next Sunday to Monday (day 7-8).

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The SOI a few days ago was consistent with a storm around 2/18, and the reading for 2/11 just came in at -19, which is the lowest it has been in ages, and another big drop.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89
10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13
9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22
8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37
7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58
6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73

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Yesterday, Seattle picked up 3.5" snow. That brings the 2018-19 total to 14.1". 2018-19 is now Seattle's snowiest winter since 2008-09 when 23.2" snow was recorded.

In addition, Seattle's low temperature of 21° set a new daily record minimum figure. The old record was 24°, which was set in 1982.

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22 hours ago, Chinook said:

Surprising, just as your posted that (11 hrs ago,) the GFS and Canadian runs since this morning have started to show a storm on next Sunday to Monday (day 7-8).

Yeah, I fed 'em a bunch of fake data yesterday. I'm sure it'll disappear soon. Mwahahahaha.....

 

Also, I'm flying into DEN next Monday AM, so the timing would be perfect.

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Models have been changing somewhat wildly on precipitation next Sunday-Monday. The 18z GFS changed back to having near zero precipitation for 10 days. the 18z GFS yesterday had 24.6" of snow for me in 10 days. The model ensembles show cold air in the western USA and northern Rockies for a longer period.  Maybe some snowfall will happen at some point, even if it isn't in exactly 168 hours or whatever.

 

I wonder if the Cascade Mountains basins will be at something like 90% or 95% snow water equivalent after the next few days.

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Seattle picked up another 5.1" snow today through 5:00 pm PST. That broke the daily record of 1.1", which was set in 1981. Snowfall for winter 2018-19 has now reached 19.2". That makes 2018-19 Seattle's snowiest winter since 2008-09 when 23.2" snow fell.

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Latest GFS has the beginnings of the "SOI Storm Cavalry". We'll see what it has tomorrow.  Changing its mind all the time. I find that storms over perform here when the SOI rapidly drops in a short period. The -19 reading for 2/11 is the type of thing that precedes big storms.

DzLXDmwVAAIYsug.jpg:large

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20 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Latest GFS has the beginnings of the "SOI Storm Cavalry". We'll see what it has tomorrow.  Changing its mind all the time. I find that storms over perform here when the SOI rapidly drops in a short period. The -19 reading for 2/11 is the type of thing that precedes big storms.

DzLXDmwVAAIYsug.jpg:large

???

I guess you’re talking about somewhere other than eastern CO and the CO Front Range. And eastern NM. And most of TX. That’s a terrible model run for all of those areas. The worst I’ve seen for the Front Range in a while actually. Sorry - don’t mean to be grumpy, but I cannot see what you’re talking about, given that the mountains have already generally been doing ok to well for a while now. 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Seattle picked up another 5.1" snow today through 5:00 pm PST. That broke the daily record of 1.1", which was set in 1981. Snowfall for winter 2018-19 has now reached 19.2". That makes 2018-19 Seattle's snowiest winter since 2008-09 when 23.2" snow fell.

Snowiest month since 1969. Impressive.

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50 minutes ago, snowfan789 said:

???

I guess you’re talking about somewhere other than eastern CO and the CO Front Range. And eastern NM. And most of TX. That’s a terrible model run for all of those areas. The worst I’ve seen for the Front Range in a while actually. Sorry - don’t mean to be grumpy, but I cannot see what you’re talking about, given that the mountains have already generally been doing ok to well for a while now. 

I don't really care about Eastern CO, this isn't the "Denver thread" - that's the least mountainous area of Colorado when you get east of the front range. Western Colorado and Western New Mexico could use the amounts of precipitation depicted. It's been pretty average to date. I don't think its unreasonable to root for snow in SW CO and NW NM given how the drought monitor has looked in the past couple years. It could be five years until another relatively cold / average-wet pattern shows up again. I'd like to see that red area on the second map destroyed.

M2omSTb.png

 m5AF7rS.png

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