Maestrobjwa Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: From what I know it is a fairly regular periodic cycle- so once the wind changes direction it tends stay there for a while, growing in magnitude then decreasing again.. It roughly resembles a sine wave, although it tends to shift more abruptly and is not necessarily symmetrical(positive and negative alternations). So we shouldn't count on it to help us this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So we shouldn't count on it to help us this winter? QBO Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 This is the trend for Aug-Sept-Oct I am definitely not an expert, but my guess is no it won't help. Probably depends on how rapidly it moves into positive territory. It is only one index, but it does (apparently) impact the strat PV. When the QBO is negative, headed more negative, or positive but close to neutral, this seems to favor a weaker PV. At least that is the general theory I think. Like a lot of this stuff, it doesn't seem to be well understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: QBO Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 This is the trend for Aug-Sept-Oct I am definitely not an expert, but my guess is no it won't help. Probably depends on how rapidly it moves into positive territory. It is only one index, but it does (apparently) impact the strat PV. When the QBO is negative, headed more negative, or positive but close to neutral, this seems to favor a weaker PV. At least that is the general theory I think. Like a lot of this stuff, it doesn't seem to be well understood. Isotherm has a decent handle on the NAO, but le is MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: QBO Calculated at NOAA/ESRL PSD 30mb zonal wind at the equator, zonal average -20.41 -9.91 -2.79 This is the trend for Aug-Sept-Oct I am definitely not an expert, but my guess is no it won't help. Probably depends on how rapidly it moves into positive territory. It is only one index, but it does (apparently) impact the strat PV. When the QBO is negative, headed more negative, or positive but close to neutral, this seems to favor a weaker PV. At least that is the general theory I think. Like a lot of this stuff, it doesn't seem to be well understood. The very thing that may hinder a -NAO early in the season might be a positive for a SSW event at some point via this theory: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, frd said: The very thing that may hinder a -NAO early in the season might be a positive for a SSW event at some point via this theory: If what he says is valid- that a QBO transitioning from negative to positive increases the chances of SSWE, then that might bode will for NA blocking down the line. Get a -AO with some persistence, and often times a -NAO will follow. The chances of an early season -NAO(other than something transient) are probably pretty low anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: If what he says is valid- that a QBO transitioning from negative to positive increases the chances of SSWE, then that might bode will for NA blocking down the line. Get a -AO with some persistence, and often times a -NAO will follow. The chances of an early season -NAO(other than something transient) are probably pretty low anyway. Wow...The more I learn about what makes it snow here, the more I am amazed at how much of a chessboard it can be when it comes to how pieces have to setup and/or interact with each other to give us average to above average snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Gotta love the Canadian! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Wrap around always works out well for us...lol GFS! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Starting to see the end of the mild pattern already showing up on lr ens. Both 00z gefs and eps with signs of the Aleutian low getting started. Gefs with a decent look out in time with higher heights into GL... Still some work to do but good timing, imo, for things to evolve nicely for early Dec. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 hah, some support for some first flakes coming out of that day 6 system from the GEFS one member skews the mean but a couple show at least some flakes. Of course, higher chance NW of the city as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Starting to see the end of the mild pattern already showing up on lr ens. Both 00z gefs and eps with signs of the Aleutian low getting started. Gefs with a decent look out in time with higher heights into GL... Still some work to do but good timing, imo, for things to evolve nicely for early Dec. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Don't look now but the 06Z GEFS has no warm up to be found in the east. We see cold anomalies through the full 16 days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 06Z is showing a potentially favorable setup for the day 9-10 period. Right now we are seeing the -NAO breaking down a little too quickly allowing our Tues/Wed storm to rotate north of the preferred 50/50 region. This in turn is not allowing good ridging to develop in front of the trough that we see dropping down in the central part of the country. The trough now is going negative tilt as it enters the east which is good but due to lack of good ridging in front all we are seeing is a shallow drop southward thus those to our north are the ones that may benefit. Pretty simple solution to get the deeper drop so that it would benefit us though. See a stronger -NAO or a slower retreat of it and the results upstream would be a shifting southward of the low closer to the 50/50, better ridging in front of the trough and a deeper drop of the trough due to this ridging. Easy peasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 16 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Because it will be 90 the following week Ah yes...never let today's joy distract you from tomorrow's potential misery! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: A brief cold(dry) shot with a hard freeze is kinda fun, but it is transient, and beyond that there is some work to be done to get to a decent h5 look as we head into December. That's ugly but...there are some features there like the scandanavian ridge that could quickly evolve that into a decent look. It's also a look similar to warm early periods in past ninos in the analog set so not unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's ugly but...there are some features there like the scandanavian ridge that could quickly evolve that into a decent look. It's also a look similar to warm early periods in past ninos in the analog set so not unusual. There were maps, such as this, EPS 360 that when rolled forward in previous analog years evolved into a pretty deep winter period over the East. The question of course is how long. one thing for sure seems to be a very cold period and then some moderation after Nov. 20th. Still not cold enough presently to kill all the bugs yet, that should happen soon though. I am happen to be hopeful for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ah yes...never let today's joy distract you from tomorrow's potential misery! Gosh you're always so negative and doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's ugly but...there are some features there like the scandanavian ridge that could quickly evolve that into a decent look. It's also a look similar to warm early periods in past ninos in the analog set so not unusual. Pop a decent -Nao into that look curtsy of the Euro ridging and you end up with a trough in the east and a +PNA. The EPO would probably still stay + but all in all it would be a very workable look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: There were maps, such as this, EPS 360 that when rolled forward in previous analog years evolved into a pretty deep winter period over the East. The question of course is how long. one thing for sure seems to be a very cold period and then some moderation after Nov. 20th. Still not cold enough presently to kill all the bugs yet, that should happen soon though. I am happen to be hopeful for once. I've seen stats that suggest the kind of ridge were seeing in Scandanavia this time of year often precedes a -nao. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've seen stats that suggest the kind of ridge were seeing in Scandanavia this time of year often precedes a -nao. Yes, thats true, plus some connections as well to wave 1 activity. On a unrelated note there may be additional PV displacements/weakenings in early December. Wonder too if the big storm(s) next week off the East Coast have any effects as well on the NW Atlantic and at the say time Finland experiencing all time record warm temps, maybe that is helping the Scandanavia ridge to generate and enhances it maybe. Would love to see at some point the PV take it from both sides , the Atlantic and the Pac. I think that is to a degree how it went down last Jan to Feb in a series of attempts that lead to the eventual SSWE . and the bitter cold March and cold April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z is showing a potentially favorable setup for the day 9-10 period. Right now we are seeing the -NAO breaking down a little too quickly allowing our Tues/Wed storm to rotate north of the preferred 50/50 region. This in turn is not allowing good ridging to develop in front of the trough that we see dropping down in the central part of the country. The trough now is going negative tilt as it enters the east which is good but due to lack of good ridging in front all we are seeing is a shallow drop southward thus those to our north are the ones that may benefit. Pretty simple solution to get the deeper drop so that it would benefit us though. See a stronger -NAO or a slower retreat of it and the results upstream would be a shifting southward of the low closer to the 50/50, better ridging in front of the trough and a deeper drop of the trough due to this ridging. Easy peasy. Too much gradient ... The N/stream is bulling in but we're lingering with 582 dm heights from new Mexico to the lower M/A in the bounce-back latitudes. What that means is that as the trough comes down ...the heights compress in spatial distance between the lines... and when you get a lot of them, that's a gradient saturation = high balance wind flow outside of the short waves in the flow. That in turn doesn't work out too well for the short waves. Just something to keep in mind - too much gradient can be a detriment to storm strength; you'll get them but they tend to be weaker and/or very fast movers. So "favorable set up" has some caveats in that look.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday? folk are still on DST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday? Unless I'm missing something, just looks like rain changing to some back-end snow, and that never works out here. Winds dry us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday? ok, I'll say it. That's two runs in a row that gives the MA wraparound snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday?Not uninterested but there have been better fantasy runs to discuss that we’ve ignored. 6z FV3 was pretty good. That said, never gonna complain about fantasy first flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 No mention of the 12z GFS for next Tuesday?Pretty consistent the last few runs with a lot of energy still left to pass thru while the slp is already up to mass. First mangled flakes of the season for western areas if it holds true?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Too much gradient ... The N/stream is bulling in but we're lingering with 582 dm heights from new Mexico to the lower M/A in the bounce-back latitudes. What that means is that as the trough comes down ...the heights compress in spatial distance between the lines... and when you get a lot of them, that's a gradient saturation = high balance wind flow outside of the short waves in the flow. That in turn doesn't work out too well for the short waves. Just something to keep in mind - too much gradient can be a detriment to storm strength; you'll get them but they tend to be weaker and/or very fast movers. So "favorable set up" has some caveats in that look.. I understand what you are saying but you lost me with the 582dm heights. The farthest north I see that come is southern Texas through central Florida. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I've seen stats that suggest the kind of ridge were seeing in Scandanavia this time of year often precedes a -nao. Oh PLEASE let that be true!! (where did you see said stat? Link?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Models models - maybe some changes coming up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Not sure I see the GFS as a wrap around snow deal. I see it as a wave of low pressure sliding south of us that barely has enough warm air push to get 850's above freezing out here. Once it is east of us temps fall and theres still enough energy to produce precip. Don't see this as an actual "snow" but I do think it might produce rain/snow or snow with enough precip still happening to at least be something to talk about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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