October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I never worry about suppression with a -NAO(aka block). If I were in NE, maybe. I will take my chances every time with NA ridging in place. We had a textbook west based -NAO as I recall in 2016, and our big storm still tracked close enough to the coast to dry slot many areas along and east of I-95. Leading up to the 3 big storms in 2009-10 we had great blocking, and storm tracks were ideal for this region. Of course ENSO has a lot to do with that as well- we will almost always get screwed in the MA in a Nina winter, regardless of the NAO phase lol.

If I am remembering correctly I looked into this a few years back and strong/very strong western based -Nao were quite often suppressive in nature. But I could be misremembering and wrong.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

If I am remembering correctly I looked into this a few years back and strong/very strong western based -Nao were quite often suppressive in nature. But I could be misremembering and wrong.

Kinda depends if we are talking advertised or verified. There is often a significant difference between what is modeled and the ground truth when it comes to the NAO. I never fear the true block though- I often fear the lack thereof, lol. This can depend on one's location of course.

eta- IIRC the Jan 2016 storm featured a strong Baffin Island/Davis Strait centered block, which I would consider a west-based -NAO.

[showmethesnow]

9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Kinda depends if we are talking advertised or verified. There is often a significant difference between what is modeled and the ground truth when it comes to the NAO. I never fear the true block though- I often fear the lack thereof, lol. This can depend on one's location of course.

eta- IIRC the Jan 2016 storm featured a strong Baffin Island/Davis Strait centered block, which I would consider a west-based -NAO.

I could definitely be wrong. It has been a few years since I looked into the -NAO and its strength/placement somewhat and I no longer remember the details. All I remember is the impression that east based -NAO's weren't typically great and that our region did better with central and west based -NAOs. And west based strong (several deviations strong) -NAOs quite often had issues as well. I was thinking it was due to suppression but maybe there is another reason. But weather is so convoluted that I no longer get hung up on indices and whether particular features are in their proper place and concentrate more so on how all the players on the field are interacting with each other.

Looked back at that storm. Fun to look at. Classic Archambault event. Very strong (4-5 deviations?) -NAO which encompassed almost all of the NAO domain a week before the storm which transitioned over to a strong +Nao 7-10 days later. Also saw the PNA pop concurrently with the transitioning NAO to get that system to dig down to the Gulf. And lets not forget the 50/50. Like I said, fun to look at.

[aldie 22]

What....no pivot!?!?! 

[Rtd208]

40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What....no pivot!?!?! 

 

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

I could definitely be wrong. It has been a few years since I looked into the -NAO and its strength/placement somewhat and I no longer remember the details. All I remember is the impression that east based -NAO's weren't typically great and that our region did better with central and west based -NAOs. And west based strong (several deviations strong) -NAOs quite often had issues as well. I was thinking it was due to suppression but maybe there is another reason. But weather is so convoluted that I no longer get hung up on indices and whether particular features are in their proper place and concentrate more so on how all the players on the field are interacting with each other.

Looked back at that storm. Fun to look at. Classic Archambault event. Very strong (4-5 deviations?) -NAO which encompassed almost all of the NAO domain a week before the storm which transitioned over to a strong +Nao 7-10 days later. Also saw the PNA pop concurrently with the transitioning NAO to get that system to dig down to the Gulf. And lets not forget the 50/50. Like I said, fun to look at.

That is a memorable panel. I looked for a panel of 500 mb heights (and couldn't find it) for the week leading up to the storm, when the block was an absolute beast from Baffin to GL. That basically locked in the trough underneath, and as you pointed out the storm occurred as the -NAO was weakening, and was in fact transitioning to the positive phase, which is often the case with the big snow events.

[poolz1]

47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a memorable panel. I looked for a panel of 500 mb heights (and couldn't find it) for the week leading up to the storm, when the block was an absolute beast from Baffin to GL. That basically locked in the trough underneath, and as you pointed out the storm occurred as the -NAO was weakening, and was in fact transitioning to the positive phase, which is often the case with the big snow events.

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

Thats the one. Awesome.

Where did you find that? I used to have a link to NOAA or CPC for historical maps, but lost it.

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats the one. Awesome.

Where did you find that? I used to have a link to NOAA or CPC for historical maps, but lost it.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

[CAPE]

Just now, poolz1 said:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

Yeah I just found it lol.

Thanks!

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

It was not my fave, simply because of the nasty dryslot that robbed almost half the storm here lol.

 

Its hard to choose a number one, but I really loved this one. Probably because of how early it occurred. Just a super h5 look and what a storm for mid-late December.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It was not my fave, simply because of the nasty dryslot that robbed almost half the storm here lol.

 

Its hard to choose a number one, but I really loved this one. Probably because of how early it occurred. Just a super h5 look and what a storm for mid-late December.

This Dec 2009 storm was awesome in my area , measured 24 inches in several differant locations......the 2016 Blizzard that killed Baltimore and nearby areas here only dropped I think 14 to 16 inches - I believe dry slot was the cause as you stated 

[frd]

51 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

What caused that block to form ? Do you recall ?

Lately they have been very, very rare. 

I know sometimes SSWE related, wave breaking , retrograde from the East . I can not remember 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

This Dec 2009 storm was awesome in my area , measured 24 inches in several differant locations......the 2016 Blizzard that killed Baltimore and nearby areas here only dropped I think 14 to 16 inches - I believe dry slot was the cause as you stated 

Yup you were in the dry slot as well. Ended up with 15 here. The Dec 2009 storm was 20-21 here. 

All the discussion of QBO and AO/NAO has me reminiscing with these composites...man we had such legit, epic blocking that winter. Sad how its seems to be nearly extinct since then lol.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a memorable panel. I looked for a panel of 500 mb heights (and couldn't find it) for the week leading up to the storm, when the block was an absolute beast from Baffin to GL. That basically locked in the trough underneath, and as you pointed out the storm occurred as the -NAO was weakening, and was in fact transitioning to the positive phase, which is often the case with the big snow events.

That blocking started setting up 3 weeks prior to the storm with a good 2 weeks or so of it being a monster. Hard to pick a panel because of the duration but here is a random panel from a little over a week out. If you have weather Bell just click on Climate Atlas which is on the left hand side of the models page.

 

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

That blocking started setting up 3 weeks prior to the storm with a good 2 weeks or so of it being a monster. Hard to pick a panel because of the duration but here is a random panel from a little over a week out.

If you have weather Bell just click on Climate Atlas which is on the left hand side of the models page.

 

Thanks. I have never used that feature on there.

And yeah that block was long duration and strong. Despite how warm it had been, when that started to show up in the guidance, and knowing we were in a strong Nino, it was pretty clear we were going to have a shot at something memorable.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup you were in the dry slot as well. Ended up with 15 here. The Dec 2009 storm was 20-21 here. 

All the discussion of QBO and AO/NAO has me reminiscing with these composites...man we had such legit, epic blocking that winter. Sad how its seems to be nearly extinct since then lol.

Had some issues with the 2016 storm as well.  Think we ended up with 15/16 inches? It was nice but if I recall correctly PSU got hammered just down the road a touch.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks. I have never used that feature on there.

And yeah that block was long duration and strong. Despite how warm it had been, when that started to show up in the guidance, and knowing we were in a strong Nino, it was pretty clear we were going to have a shot at something memorable.

Only problem with that feature is that it only goes back a few years. Would love to see some historic storms in the past.

I remember the week or two before the storm everybody was woofing. Hard not to score when the blocking was basically CONUS wide to our north.

[frd]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup you were in the dry slot as well. Ended up with 15 here. The Dec 2009 storm was 20-21 here. 

All the discussion of QBO and AO/NAO has me reminiscing with these composites...man we had such legit, epic blocking that winter. Sad how its seems to be nearly extinct since then lol.

This is why some folks in the weather community are saying it is not wise to use 2009 as a analog to this year, because certain factors are missing in the area of blocking and the El Nino is not as strong.

HM alluded to this as well , as he mentioned you could back to late October 2009 and see that big time blocking was going to be likely in December 09.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, frd said:

This is why some folks in the weather community are saying it is not wise to use 2009 as a analog to this year, because certain factors are missing in the area of blocking and the El Nino is not as strong.

HM alluded to this as well , as he mentioned you could back to late October 2009 and see that big time blocking was going to be likely in December 09.  

HM is way over my level on this stuff, but absent the intricate mechanisms that apparently must come together to produce a sustained NA block, it makes sense to go with persistence and count on the NAO being mostly positive. If the QBO stays negative that could contribute to PV weakening, and if some of the other stuff (strat warming) works out, maybe we get a solid -AO period. Often times that correlates to NA blocking.

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, frd said:

What caused that block to form ? Do you recall ?

Lately they have been very, very rare. 

I know sometimes SSWE related, wave breaking , retrograde from the East . I can not remember 

I wish I had that kind of memory....Sometimes I'm surprised at the setups to these memorable events when I look back at them.  Boy that block in Dec '09 was insane!  If I remember correctly there was a SSWE in mid/late Nov that year?

@C.A.P.E. Yeah, I remember that dry slot over your area in '16.  I measured 32" on the patio after the storm but my snowboard measurements added up to 35+.  Not much wind out here with the storm.  So hard to get blizzard conditions this far west except for the rare snow squall coming from the west.

The second storm in 2010 did have blizzard conditions imby....one of the big reasons it ranks so high for me.

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

I wish I had that kind of memory....Sometimes I'm surprised at the setups to these memorable events when I look back at them.  Boy that block in Dec '09 was insane!  If I remember correctly there was a SSWE in mid/late Nov that year?

@C.A.P.E. Yeah, I remember that dry slot over your area in '16.  I measured 32" on the patio after the storm but my snowboard measurements added up to 35+.  Not much wind out here with the storm.  So hard to get blizzard conditions this far west except for the rare snow squall coming from the west.

The second storm in 2010 did have blizzard conditions imby....one of the big reasons it ranks so high for me.

 

Yes the second storm was an all out blizzard here. Sideways snow and low visibility the whole storm. Almost impossible to measure, especially since there was already a bunch of snow left on the ground from the previous storm. Also one of my favorites.

 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a memorable panel. I looked for a panel of 500 mb heights (and couldn't find it) for the week leading up to the storm, when the block was an absolute beast from Baffin to GL. That basically locked in the trough underneath, and as you pointed out the storm occurred as the -NAO was weakening, and was in fact transitioning to the positive phase, which is often the case with the big snow events.

You are both right. It's all nuance. Where you are a gradient pattern is way less likely to work then west of 95 so blocking is even more important. But blocking isn't all or nothing. And other things like stj and pna factor in. Too much blocking and things get suppressed.  But that's kind of rare. Even if we have too much blocking it will break down and create a window as it does. 

 

As for the old PAC vs ATL debate...I think it's a draw. I've seen good threats screwed up by both. And I've seen us cash in with either a good Pacific and Atlantic when the other was crappy.  But the one thing that clear, if you want a blockbuster storm then nao blocking is the way to go. It's very rare to get a hecs level event without blocking. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks. I have never used that feature on there.

And yeah that block was long duration and strong. Despite how warm it had been, when that started to show up in the guidance, and knowing we were in a strong Nino, it was pretty clear we were going to have a shot at something memorable.

About a week before we had a nor'easter that took a perfect track but was cold rain. I had some wet snow mixed in here. But it had been so warm it took a while to create enough cold over the Conus to allow a snowstorm. And from 10 days out it was iffy on guidance if it would be cold enough. But I do remember there were a couple runs from range that cut inland and I was telling people "look at the h5" that's not going to be the problem.  Maybe lack of cold air but not a cutter. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Had some issues with the 2016 storm as well.  Think we ended up with 15/16 inches? It was nice but if I recall correctly PSU got hammered just down the road a touch.

You talking about the January 16 storm?  Only 16"?  I had about 30" but the coop in north Hanover reported 32" and the other 30".  How did you get 16?  If you mean the December 2009 storm yea I "only" had 17" here from that one. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You talking about the January 16 storm?  Only 16"?  I had about 30" but the coop in north Hanover reported 32" and the other 30".  How did you get 16?  If you mean the December 2009 storm yea I "only" had 17" here from that one. 

I think he must have been referring to a different storm. The only thing that messed up the 2016 storm was the dry slot from hell, and that affected areas somewhat along I-95, but mostly east. West and NW it was hours and hours of CCB moderate to heavy snow.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at this stuff man

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think he must have been referring to a different storm. The only thing that messed up the 2016 storm was the dry slot from hell, and that affected areas somewhat along I-95, but mostly east. West and NW it was hours and hours of CCB moderate to heavy snow.

I was required to be at work that Saturday Morning in Hagerstown and it was snowing 2 to 4 inches per hour in the  CCB. On the way home in the early afternoon I have never driven in that much snow . Easily 18 to 24 inches on the back roads. I drove my wife's big suburban and still had trouble getting home. Definitely a while nuckle drive. Hagerstown area ended up with 40+ inches.  Plow drivers had given up for a while that Saturday Morning. Definitely an eerie feeling driving 15 miles home and not passing another vehicle the entire way.

[poolz1]

53 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I was required to be at work that Saturday Morning in Hagerstown and it was snowing 2 to 4 inches per hour in the  CCB. On the way home in the early afternoon I have never driven in that much snow . Easily 18 to 24 inches on the back roads. I drove my wife's big suburban and still had trouble getting home. Definitely a while nuckle drive. Hagerstown area ended up with 40+ inches.  Plow drivers had given up for a while that Saturday Morning. Definitely an eerie feeling driving 15 miles home and not passing another vehicle the entire way.

This is when the CCB started to set up over the area around 10am or so....4-6hrs of heavy snow that dropped 6-12" more than eastern areas.  We were in a rare lucky sweet spot.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hard to believe even  with a Suburban you plowed thru 24 inches dam*...I bet you were  smiling ear to ear . I would have . I also think Shepherdstown,WV  was the lollie pop winner with 41" ..I believe . I remember back in the summer of 95' I was there at that college  for an Orioles tryout and it was a record high of 105 that Saturday...wow what a difference..eh

 Yes It was pretty crazy driving through that. Probably a once in a lifetime around these parts lol. I am a Store manager at a grocery store and the company I worked for was amimant about opening the store that Saturday Morning. We were only open about 4 hours and did 60$ bucks in sales. Lol. How did the tryout go. Did you play any ball in the O's organization?