October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

Between the forecast 500mb progression and signs that the strat vortex may get disrupted around the 1st, I think it’s fair to say that we’ll start December with a -AO and perhaps a strong -AO. Question now is how long it lasts. But another good sign that a blue ball of death can’t form over the pole so far to start the winter. 

[frd]

Wow,  seems the upcoming forecasted NAO block might be the strongest in November since 1995 per bluewave.  And that many times has implications for the coming winter. 

[midatlanticweather]

This is really looking good!

[WxUSAF]

12z GEFS is notably less bullish with ridging over the pole after Tday, but the pattern still looks spectacular. Builds the AO late in the run. But rocking -NAO and +PNA and clear signs of a busy STJ.  First week of December should have chances.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

No news? New GFS ensembles are pretty insane with cold, new +PNA. Yesterdays Canadian ensembles predicted it. 

[poolz1]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS is notably less bullish with ridging over the pole after Tday, but the pattern still looks spectacular. Builds the AO late in the run. But rocking -NAO and +PNA and clear signs of a busy STJ.  First week of December should have chances.

I normally dont pay close (daily) attention to the geps but it almost seems like things are taking step toward the look they have been advertising.  More of a  +PNA with the Aleutian low in a more classic position.   

ETA: Ninja'd by Chuck!

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS is notably less bullish with ridging over the pole after Tday, but the pattern still looks spectacular. Builds the AO late in the run. But rocking -NAO and +PNA and clear signs of a busy STJ.  First week of December should have chances.

heh... you know what I see right here? I see a miller A crusher moving through AZ/NM. LOL

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

heh... you know what I see right here? I see a miller A crusher moving through AZ/NM. LOL

we will more snow by Dec 7 than weve had the past 2 years lol

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

we will more snow by Dec 7 than weve had the past 2 years lol

That panel is the best ens mean I've seen since 09. Jan 16 was a great setup but the block was bootleg. GEFS is spitting out classic panels right now

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That panel is the best ens mean I've seen since 09. Jan 16 was a great setup but the block was bootleg. GEFS is spitting out classic panels right now

yea...take a Nino type STJ and a Western NAO block and funny things can happen

[poolz1]

Thought this was interesting....Click tweet to see what the 20 lowest produced...

 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Thought this was interesting....Click tweet to see what the 20 lowest produced...

 

Now if only I could translate all of that...lol 

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now if only I could translate all of that...lol 

He is showing the years in which the Scan ridge was present in Nov and what the rest of the winter months looked like.  This Nov....the scan ridge is robust to say the least.  His next tweet showed the 20 lowest scan ridge years and what those winters produced.  Basically, having that Scandinavian ridge in Nov is another check mark in pos column....

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I distinctly remember that Boxing Day bust. After an amazing 09-10 winter, SC and GA got snow that day and we got the dreaded snow hole. I'm thrilled about this winter, but I heard someone say that we will be in for a drought next winter. Not sure how anyone can predict that, but I hope it's not true. 

We are in a drought most every winter.  Not exactly going out on a limb.

[JakkelWx]

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I knew the -NAO wouldn't' develop without something different in the Pacific

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I have to wonder if this Day 7-15 +PNA is going to prelude a longer non-PNA time in Dec-Feb. 

[Bob Chill]

Man, GEFS & EPS are showing a straight up MA snowstorm pattern setting up at the end of the month. If that's a look into the Dec base state of the NH pattern then it's going to get pretty busy here. 

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I distinctly remember that Boxing Day bust. After an amazing 09-10 winter, SC and GA got snow that day and we got the dreaded snow hole. I'm thrilled about this winter, but I heard someone say that we will be in for a drought next winter. Not sure how anyone can predict that, but I hope it's not true. 

Close the blinds. Next winter is going to be a shutout.

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I have to wonder if this Day 7-15 +PNA is going to prelude a longer non-PNA time in Dec-Feb. 

Not without SSW

[frd]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, GEFS & EPS are showing a straight up MA snowstorm pattern setting up at the end of the month. If that's a look into the Dec base state of the NH pattern then it's going to get pretty busy here. 

I would even venture to say, with so good a look no mixing issues to worry about. 

Plus,  any warm up after this week is looking shorter and shorter, looks like we go right into a duration of deep winter possibly, as many factors point to it.   

On a related note, I really feel the snow cover in NA and the SAI in the NH and Siberia are driving the cold and combined with the favorable PAC , well it is like a perfect storm for snow and cold late month and in December here on the East Coast .   

I believe Eric just posted something along those lines, regarding the warm-up I mean.  

  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, GEFS & EPS are showing a straight up MA snowstorm pattern setting up at the end of the month. If that's a look into the Dec base state of the NH pattern then it's going to get pretty busy here. 

Nothing to add. All the guidance looks like someone let JB have the magic crayons.  Both for the winter and for the immediate look heading towards the start of winter we couldn't ask for anything more. I kind of keep waiting for "the other shoe to drop" but everything keeps coming up aces in how things are evolving. If things still look like this in a week and it becomes apparent we will head into December looking like this it might be time to just accept this is likely going to be a big year!  I'm right on the ledge about ready to dive in. 

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, GEFS & EPS are showing a straight up MA snowstorm pattern setting up at the end of the month. If that's a look into the Dec base state of the NH pattern then it's going to get pretty busy here. 

not too excited about 2020-21 winter though

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing to add. All the guidance looks like someone let JB have the magic crayons.  Both for the winter and for the immediate look heading towards the start of winter we couldn't ask for anything more. I kind of keep waiting for "the other shoe to drop" but everything keeps coming up aces in how things are evolving. If things still look like this in a week and it becomes apparent we will head into December looking like this it might be time to just accept this is likely going to be a big year!  I'm right on the ledge about ready to dive in. 

these are the winter where JB does really well and toots his horn like crazy. JB always does well in snowy winters lol

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

these are the winter where JB does really well and toots his horn like crazy. JB always does well in snowy winters lol

Yea and a broke clock is right twice a day. Actually back when he used to do actual storm predictions from like 72 hours he would manage the still be too high often even in years like 2003 and 2010 but no one cares when he calls for 20" in DC and they get 17. 

[mattie g]

On 11/6/2018 at 6:30 PM, showmethesnow said:

Seeing comments about a warm T-Day incoming. Just a flyer on my part but I am not so sure that is a given quite yet. Besides the obvious, that the models can and will change especially at longer ranges (2+ weeks), I think there may be some hope shown within the model itself that this may not be the case. Below is day 15 on the EPS. Notice the higher heights (these strong anomalies begin building day 8) in Europe but the muted ridging? With the very strong anomalies I question whether the ridging is getting smoothed out by some other members in the longer range. One thing that leads me to believe that the ridging may be stronger then shown (-NAO) is that we see strong negative anomalies that move into and off shore of southern Greenland and something is locking it there from day 9 through the duration of the run. Now if this is in fact the case (ridging into Greenland with low pressures trapped underneath) then the flat flow we see running through the CONUS should look very different. Instead with that setup around Greenland we would typically see pronounced troughing in the east with ridging in the west. This would mean a warm west and a cold east. Of course this is all just guess work on my part and I could very well be wrong. So don't be putting your swim suits away just yet. 

 

 

 

I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but this is looking like it could turn out to be a hell of a call.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

42 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not without SSW

Or the Pacific driving being completely different in verification. When ensemble means shows +3 SD event, it's probably going to happen. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

not too excited about 2020-21 winter though

It's going to be completely different. 

[Bob Chill]

56 minutes ago, Ji said:

these are the winter where JB does really well and toots his horn like crazy. JB always does well in snowy winters lol

Ive been really quiet this fall until recently. Winters here are so fickle that I've backed off caring about long range anything (except enso) until we get into Nov. This is the time of year where winter starts to show its hand when there are strong anomalies in the NH pattern. Unfortunately they haven't been breaking the right way for quite a few years now. We all got sucked into the unreliable SAI stuff a few years back where there was "supposed" to be a -AO. By this time the last 4-5 years it was pretty obvious that the winter was going to start with a fairly strong +AO but we held out hope because SAI said otherwise. I'm not falling for that S anymore. Especially the SSW crap when things are breaking the wrong way. Lol. 

This year is wanting to put together the 2 most important things by a mile for the MA (nino & -AO). We'll see how things look after turkey day. My guess is the -AO is legit but too early to go all in. If ensembles and monthly guidance is still showing the look were seeing now through Dec then I'm officially all in. Even bad luck probably won't derail a decent winter this year...

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ive been really quiet this fall until recently. Winters here are so fickle that I've backed off caring about long range anything (except enso) until we get into Nov. This is the time of year where winter starts to show its hand when there are strong anomalies in the NH pattern. Unfortunately they haven't been breaking the right way for quite a few years now. We all got sucked into the unreliable SAI stuff a few years back where there was "supposed" to be a -AO. By this time the last 4-5 years it was pretty obvious that the winter was going to start with a fairly strong +AO but we held out hope because SAI said otherwise. I'm not falling for that S anymore. Especially the SSW crap when things are breaking the wrong way. Lol. 

This year is wanting to put together the 2 most important things by a mile for the MA (nino & -AO). We'll see how things look after turkey day. My guess is the -AO is legit but too early to go all in. If ensembles and monthly guidance is still showing the look were seeing now through Dec then I'm officially all in. Even bad luck probably won't derail a decent winter this year...

 

What I love about the look now is that if the advertised pattern comes to fruition heading into December we can probably eliminate the bust analog years.  The few duds all had a craptastic look early season. Some years recovered after New Years. Some didn't. But all the years that had even a somewhat favorable period early in the season went on to be blockbuster winters.