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October/November Mid/Long Range Disco


NorthArlington101
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nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive

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More good news for December. Seems the PV will continue to be disrupted and displaced. This fits the theme of @Isotherm and his outlook. 

Maybe in December we get the Holy Grail pattern, if the NAO does retrograde into Davis Straits block without interference and the PAC improves further. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

Another encouraging point is that the bias between the forecast and observed NAO has been near zero since the beginning of November.  Last winter the forecast NAO had a low bias of 0.5 to 1.0 units at the 10-14 day time frame. 

It would be weird to see that happen without Stratospheric warming, the evolution looks abnormal. If it verifies it's probably because the Pacific is different as a driver. 

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Different beginnings, similiar outcomes is my opinion possibly. I am wondering whether we get snow and cold in December but for reasons not similiar to 2009. 

As HM states no real sense comparing to 2009, he states looking at 10 mb how unique that year, well,  I mean that November was. 

 

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5 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

nao.sprd2.gif

ao.sprd2.gif

Both the AO and the NAO forecast to go negative almost in time for the beginning of snow season. I take and run. Some members have it diving to record low levels and is big news for a cold December. The only thing missing is the PNA, which is currently negative and looks to slowly move towards neutral or maybe slightly positive

Edit: Click to refresh 

 

 

Calling @Bob Chill re: the AO forecast above. We’re looking at an average forecast of a bit below -2SD as we head into December...

235-15-Pitching-Tents-Gif.gif

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6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Know it is hard to bet against the Euro but in this case I wonder. It seems to me that the GEFS has generally had a better handle on the Scandinavian ridging as well as the PNA/EPO on both strength in placement in the longer range when it comes to verification at shorter ranges. Though I did look back a touch to verify this belief this is mostly going off memory so I could be wrong. Truth be told, what we will probably end up with is a compromise of the quicker GFS solution and the delayed Euro. All I know is that I think it isn't a matter of 'If" but 'When" for us to see what I think will be a great pattern.

Looks like the 12z EPS wants to crash the -NAO party. Much more emphatic than recent runs.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now.  GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things.  

I really seem to think at times the GEFS does better at the higher latts (ie blocking ) I swear I recall @Bob Chill saying that, If wrong apologies to Bob :-)

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And you..our favorite play by play guy.  Seriously you are the best at calling the frames

Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102" :lol:

They provide the detail and nitty gritty

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2 hours ago, frd said:

I really seem to think at times the GEFS does better at the higher latts (ie blocking ) I swear I recall @Bob Chill saying that, If wrong apologies to Bob :-)

GEFS will usually be the first to show a change in the LR. Meaning, if all ensembles are showing a +AO (or NAO/EPO etc) in the d10-15 range the GEFS will normally be first to show it breaking down. It's happening right now right? GEFS started showing the shift towards a *potential* -NAO 3 days ago and finally today the EPS made a noticeable move towards it. That happens more often than GEFS bashers want to admit (cough cough DT cough cough)

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Whatever happens this winter, we need a real poster to star the storm threads.  I nominate that we only let @Bob ChiII or @WxUSAF start them.  

EDIT: adding @stormtracker, @Ian, and @mappy

Ian? Someone who makes 3 posts a year now? Might as well have stormtrackerRandy start them.

:lol:

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS will usually be the first to show a change in the LR. Meaning, if all ensembles are showing a +AO (or NAO/EPO etc) in the d10-15 range the GEFS will normally be first to show it breaking down. It's happening right now right? GEFS started showing the shift towards a *potential* -NAO 3 days ago and finally today the EPS made a noticeable move towards it. That happens more often than GEFS bashers want to admit (cough cough DT cough cough)

Thanks Bob, I hope we see the GEFS lead the way again all winter with this kind of stuff, KUDOS to the GEFS !  

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

Well I dunno about that lol... there are some better posters mentioned above that do better justice than I do... I just like to quick post and say "998 mb SE NC at 102" :lol:

They provide the detail and nitty gritty

Or DC CRUSHED at 102...personal favorite

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