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NorthArlington101

October/November Mid/Long Range Disco

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20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thanksgiving looking warm in the last few runs of GFS.  That is my unofficial totally unscientific benchmark.  Christmas will be warm.  I can feel it in my bones.  

Even in 2009...wasn't Christmas rainy and kinda mild? (I remember how quickly all that snow disappeared!)

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I can remember many mild to warm Turkey Days. Hardly any snowy Christmas. But I also remember the week  after Christmas being the transition time to real winter in southern  NJ.

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I grew up in WV and recall many a white Christmas, but that's been tempered living in Charlottesville, VA. It's been a hard lesson realizing that the mountains take any and all clipper moisture and wrench it clean out of the atmosphere. Im sure Turkey day will be fine.....it's Christmas that matters most.

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3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Thanksgiving looking warm in the last few runs of GFS.  That is my unofficial totally unscientific benchmark.  Christmas will be warm.  I can feel it in my bones.  

Always trust the GFS 12 days out. :rolleyes:

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22 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Last few runs of the gefs predicting some warming at 10mb developing in the 10-15....Here is the 00z run.  Quite a difference between D10 and D16...wait and see if it has legs..

 

 

GEFS is definitely hinting at some PV perturbation over the next 10 days or so. The 0z GFS/GEFS is showing signs of change at h5. Looks like there may be a trend of increasing heights up top towards day 15.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.thumb.png.6af55f959fa95459dac5784483048bbc.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.5587ea283f609878a67cd0f1f5fa18b7.png

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GEFS is definitely hinting at some PV perturbation over the next 10 days or so. The 0z GFS/GEFS is showing signs of change at h5. Looks like there may be a trend of increasing heights up top towards day 15.



That does definitely look to be how things are trending. The blue ball doesn’t look like it want to set up shop for an extended period.

Man...it’s frustrating watching that Aleutian low stop its progression eastward. So close to setting up a great pattern as we enter Dec....as it stands now it looks like the idea of a western trough may have legs.

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12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 


That does definitely look to be how things are trending. The blue ball doesn’t look like it want to set up shop for an extended period.

Man...it’s frustrating watching that Aleutian low stop its progression eastward. So close to setting up a great pattern as we enter Dec....as it stands now it looks like the idea of a western trough may have legs.

 

I am thinking, or maybe hoping is the better word, that what looks to be a western trough is actually hinting at a cutoff low off the coast. If that is the case the ridging we see moving eastward into Alaska will probably extend farther south over-top that low giving us a +PNA. +PNA should help to give us troughing in the east especially if we have a semblance of a -NAO which might be questionable at this point.

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

 


That does definitely look to be how things are trending. The blue ball doesn’t look like it want to set up shop for an extended period.

Man...it’s frustrating watching that Aleutian low stop its progression eastward. So close to setting up a great pattern as we enter Dec....as it stands now it looks like the idea of a western trough may have legs.

 

Pacific is a little out of whack but I am not too worried about that. I want to see a -AO get established early this winter. When the AO is persistently negative, chances of above average snowfall for the DC area increases significantly.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Pacific is a little out of whack but I am not too worried about that. I want to see a -AO get established early this winter. When the AO is persistently negative, chances of above average snowfall for the DC area increases significantly.

Not worried whatsoever at this point. We are realistically a half month, if not a full month,  away from reasonable snow chances for our region and everything is moving along nicely for setting us up for around that time period. Models have been hinting at moving into a good, if not great pattern for a week now and I just think it is a matter of time before it pulls the trigger.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Not worried whatsoever at this point. We are realistically a half month, if not a full month,  away from reasonable snow chances for our region and everything is moving along nicely for setting us up for around that time period. Models have been hinting at moving into a good, if not great pattern for a week now and I just think it is a matter of time before it pulls the trigger.

Agreed. At this point I have it in my head that the Pacific will take care of itself lol. After all, a Nino all but guarantees us a +PNA, right? :P 

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I don't hate the long range GEFS 500mb look, that's for sure.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

Scand/Kara Sea ridge builds westward into Greenland as a -ENAO and we start to get some troughing near us.  AO goes negative.  Only thing that's annoying is that -EPO/-WPO ridge doesn't want to budge much eastward of the Barents Sea.  

 

Last night's Canadian ensemble does start to do that, but I haven't seen any suggestion of that in the varsity models yet.  Hopefully the Canadian is just rushing it and it will eventually move towards the West Coast.  Around the post-Thanksgiving weekend/early following week, the MJO should be rounding the bend back into the favorable phases, which should encourage an eastern trough around 1 December.  How persistent that feature will be in early-mid December, assuming it eventually develops, is the big question.  

 

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I don't hate the long range GEFS 500mb look, that's for sure.  

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

Scand/Kara Sea ridge builds westward into Greenland as a -ENAO and we start to get some troughing near us.  AO goes negative.  Only thing that's annoying is that -EPO/-WPO ridge doesn't want to budge much eastward of the Barents Sea.  

 

Last night's Canadian ensemble does start to do that, but I haven't seen any suggestion of that in the varsity models yet.  Hopefully the Canadian is just rushing it and it will eventually move towards the West Coast.  Around the post-Thanksgiving weekend/early following week, the MJO should be rounding the bend back into the favorable phases, which should encourage an eastern trough around 1 December.  How persistent that feature will be in early-mid December, assuming it eventually develops, is the big question.  

 

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

 

Ens are a bit ambiguous with how things evolve late in the month and early Dec. Aleutian ridge and -pna is anti-nino so if it develops I'd guess that it will be temporary. Early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo. Especially in the corridor. 

My wag is the pac will cooperate in Dec at some point. Second half of the month would be optimal. We'll know more in 2 weeks. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ens are a bit ambiguous with how things evolve late in the month and early Dec. Aleutian ridge and -pna is anti-nino so if it develops I'd guess that it will be temporary. Early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo. Especially in the corridor. 

My wag is the pac will cooperate in Dec at some point. Second half of the month would be optimal. We'll know more in 2 weeks. 

Yeah, no way we have a ridge long-term over the Aleutians/Barents Sea given the Pac SSTAs.  So it's just a matter of time.  You're right of course that our snow climo isn't great the first half of December, but if the pattern keeps evolving in that way, I'd WAG that we'll have chances (insofar as a supportive long wave pattern) during those 1st 2 weeks and then probably some sort of reshuffle after.  Who knows though.  I still don't see anything I don't like for the winter as a whole, so even if December doesn't work out, let's all remember that's to be expected in a Nino winter.  

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ens are a bit ambiguous with how things evolve late in the month and early Dec. Aleutian ridge and -pna is anti-nino so if it develops I'd guess that it will be temporary. Early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo. Especially in the corridor. 

My wag is the pac will cooperate in Dec at some point. Second half of the month would be optimal. We'll know more in 2 weeks. 

Yeah I made a post earlier based on the 0z run. Looks like the 12z GEFS has continued the trend towards developing a -AO, and with generally higher h5 heights building up top. And I agree wrt to the PAC. Not concerned about the current look. It wont hurt us over the coming weeks- other than maybe we miss out on 33 and rain lol. Nino forcing should eventually take care of it. 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I made a post earlier based on the 0z run. Looks like the 12z GEFS has continued the trend towards developing a -AO, and with generally higher h5 heights building up top. And I agree wrt to the PAC. Not concerned about the current look. It wont hurt us over the coming weeks- other than maybe we miss out on 33 and rain lol. Nino forcing should eventually take care of it. 

Yea man, getting close to go time if the AO is going to be a dominant feature during met winter.  To get a -1.25 or lower AO on the means for Dec we can't waste a bunch of time with a +AO during the first half of the month. I'm really hoping the -AO signal is strong as we close out this month. Plenty of lead time to not worry one way or the other but as the weeks go by that's certainly something to watch closely. 

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I made a post earlier based on the 0z run. Looks like the 12z GEFS has continued the trend towards developing a -AO, and with generally higher h5 heights building up top. And I agree wrt to the PAC. Not concerned about the current look. It wont hurt us over the coming weeks- other than maybe we miss out on 33 and rain lol. Nino forcing should eventually take care of it. 

I'm pretty optimistic that this winter will produce. Our region lives and dies by enso most years to get warning level events. If the long wave pattern sets up like a nino then we'll need less luck than usual. That's really all we can ask for. A lot can happen in 3 weeks so I'm not getting hung up on anything models are showing now. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can work with this spread. Hopefully the neg cluster prevails. 

 

It's been nice to see every -PNA event break more positive in verification. This has been a problem for the last 5 years, and really for the last 20 years honestly. 

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, getting close to go time if the AO is going to be a dominant feature during met winter.  To get a -1.25 or lower AO on the means for Dec we can't waste a bunch of time with a +AO during the first half of the month. I'm really hoping the -AO signal is strong as we close out this month. Plenty of lead time to not worry one way or the other but as the weeks go by that's certainly something to watch closely. 

I hate to even bring this up, but I will :-)  I read some update from Judah and basically it implies that the nature of the SAI ad the timing aspect at the VERY end of the month of October, ( very important to him/his research  ), plus other various factors such as drivers and preconditioners  of the upcoming pattern that he looks to to drive a winter -AO are in his favor and according to him look good if you like winter and cold and snow. 

So, we better have a averaged -AO this winter.  I still feel that despite him taking credit for past winters that were cold but that did not feature a -AO he still has some insights worth considering. I like to look at 20 + things and then try to get a consensus feeling, I am with you Bob, I think this winter will deliver compared to thr past few.       

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For those who want/need a reminder of the most important drivers for cold and snow in our region, here is a link to a CWG article from a few years back by the great Wes Junker.

Bottom line: We want a -AO.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/?utm_term=.da3ced404805

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Euro Control cuts off under us at day 8 at h5. Gives northern sections some snow.That whole day 7-9 maybe worth keeping 1 eye on . Eps at h5 actually looks semi intriguing thru this period.  

 

Screenshot_20181110-150733_Chrome_crop_540x841.jpg

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Euro Control cuts off under us at day 8 at h5. That whole day 7-9 maybe worth keeping 1 eye on .

How does turkey day look?  Afraid to look. Just want it below 55. 

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