AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 A brief burst of -PNA then the pattern goes back to favorable at Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's an amazing look. We will have threats in that pattern for sure. I wonder if some are rushing it though. The storms in the 8-14 day will likely get forced under us and you never know but it's also possible there won't be enough cold to work with yet as the pattern gets established. Not saying they can't work but I won't be upset if we have to wait. Climo gets less and less hostile every day also. But the best window might be after what were seeing now as such a pattern pulses and relaxes or ultimately breaks down. (Before the reload of course). Won't stop Ji from cancelling winter anyways. I checked out the ind member solutions. Vast majority of the d10+ storms are rain. Decent track on many but lack cold enough air. I'm not expecting much else this month either. We're still fighting climo pretty hard until we move into Dec. If the pattern holds through the first half of Dec I'd be surprised if we didn't book another event though. Unquestionably the best pattern leading into Dec since 2010. Thankfully it's not a Nina this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's an amazing look. We will have threats in that pattern for sure. I wonder if some are rushing it though. The storms in the 8-14 day will likely get forced under us and you never know but it's also possible there won't be enough cold to work with yet as the pattern gets established. Not saying they can't work but I won't be upset if we have to wait. Climo gets less and less hostile every day also. But the best window might be after what were seeing now as such a pattern pulses and relaxes or ultimately breaks down. (Before the reload of course). Won't stop Ji from cancelling winter anyways. I think you're right actually. I wouldn't expect a real legit chance until around the 1st and likely beyond. That said, here we are today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I think you're right actually. I wouldn't expect a real legit chance until around the 1st and likely beyond. That said, here we are today... Yep. Wasn’t it just about 10 days ago that the prevailing theory was that we would be in a Ridge/warm period by now? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yep. Wasn’t it just about 10 days ago that the prevailing theory was that we would be in a Ridge/warm period by now? Not now. This midweek looked cold from range. It was this upcoming weekend and beyond that looked warm. Naso much now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Still lookin good for some pretty significant discombobulation of the PV over the next 2 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 On 11/14/2018 at 4:34 PM, psuhoffman said: Nothing to add. All the guidance looks like someone let JB have the magic crayons. Both for the winter and for the immediate look heading towards the start of winter we couldn't ask for anything more. I kind of keep waiting for "the other shoe to drop" but everything keeps coming up aces in how things are evolving. If things still look like this in a week and it becomes apparent we will head into December looking like this it might be time to just accept this is likely going to be a big year! I'm right on the ledge about ready to dive in. Hahahaha! I think you just made the plot for a children's movie about the weather...lol This is going on my "quotes of the late fall/winter" list... Let's hope the magic crayons keep on colorin'!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample. Thats a good look especially considering its a 7 day mean. I wish I was drunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample. Yes sir...that's more like it! A very quick relax mid Dec but then right back into what is hopefully our default pattern.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Ventrice is hopeful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample. Freaking glorious 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Freaking glorious Yeah and how about this look for the beginning of December...and my birthday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Freaking glorious Now the waiting. Always the hardest part. Today was a very nice diversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Now the waiting. Always the hardest part. Today was a very nice diversion We usually wait until the 3rd week of Jan or even mid Feb sometimes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We usually wait until the 3rd week of Jan or even mid Feb sometimes. I know but now I am spoiled. I want more snow now. I’ll get over it because I have no say in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I know but now I am spoiled. I want more snow now. I’ll get over it because I have no say in it. U and me both. I absolutely can't stand having to extrapolate ensemble guidance D15+ hoping the shutout pattern will go away. Hoping we get at least 3 warning level events this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Pretty nice to have the EPS and GEFS looking very similar to each other in the mid range. I dont know if those temps are gonna do it in early to mid December. But we will definitely have some tracking to do over the next month. Sure beats the past couple of winters where we really had nothing to even talk about for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty nice to have the EPS and GEFS looking very similar to each other in the mid range. I dont know if those temps are gonna do it in early to mid December. But we will definitely have some tracking to do over the next month. Sure beats the past couple of winters where we really had nothing to even talk about for weeks on end. What, are they borderline like they were today? Lol (now I too am a bit spoiled by this event...I'm not sure I wanna see 3 r/s screw jobs in a row. I can give it pass for November. But of course, I know...December climo!). What do we need to punch past that climo if a storm opportunity(s) does arise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 06z FV3 looks like it goes for a Miller A at the end of the run hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 06z FV3 looks like it goes for a Miller A at the end of the run hehe And oh boy, that 0 run was frigid ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 DT was ALEETing already 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The first week of December is definitely becoming a possible threat window. If he h5 look being advertised by ALL guidance is even close then we have a legit shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The first week of December is definitely becoming a possible threat window. If he h5 look being advertised by ALL guidance is even close then we have a legit shot. That period looks legit. Just screaming MA winter storm. Of course that does not necessarily mean an all snow event. Despite less than ideal climo for the cities and east though, the chances increase if that NA look verifies because we can get a favorable storm track with a good enough cold air source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That period looks legit. Just screaming MA winter storm. Of course that does not necessarily mean an all snow event. Despite less than ideal climo for the cities and east though, the chances increase if that NA look verifies because we can get a favorable storm track with a good enough cold air source. I was just going to ask a question about what exactly we need to beat the climo in early December to get snow to work even in the corridor, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I was just going to ask a question about what exactly we need to beat the climo in early December to get snow to work even in the corridor, lol Literally a perfect h5 pattern, which is what is currently being advertised lol. For my yard, where a mostly/all snow event can only happen when a low tracks underneath and coastals form/track slightly offshore, the importance of -NAO cannot be overstated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The first week of December is definitely becoming a possible threat window. If he h5 look being advertised by ALL guidance is even close then we have a legit shot. No doubt. If I had to wag, I’d guess the 2nd storm in that week (if there are even 2) would be our better shot just for the fact of getting cold air in place. Normal highs in early December are still near 50 in DC and low 40s for you, so we still need a pretty anomalous airmass to get all or mostly snow. Need a fresh polar airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is looking pretty far out, so take it fwiw. The latest runs of the GEPS and CFS weeklies lose the -NAO by mid December. Both look like they trend to a neutral AO/NAO, but the PAC continues to look excellent. Not unexpected if this were to verify, and yesterday's run of the EPS weekies holds onto the HL blocking through December, although the previous run did not. It wouldn't surprise me if a relax happens. And of the AO wants to cycle between strongly negative and neutral that's a win. We aren't going to run the table with a -4 AO now to march anyways. Plus a great Pacific combined with a neutral AO/NAO can work just fine also. It's not a hecs pattern but it can produce snow. But...I'm also not that invested in what the day 20 guidance shows right now. The weeklies and CFS totally missed the November cold now. They totally missed what looks like a cold start to December. And in 2013/14 all winter we were worried about the awful long range looks that never came. And how many times in a crap year when things sucked we were waiting on some great look day 20 that never materialized. So while it's important to note the trends on guidance and discuss the possible relaxation of the pattern I'll worry more about day 20 when days 1-19 suck lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It wouldn't surprise me if a relax happens. And of the AO wants to cycle between strongly negative and neutral that's a win. We aren't going to run the table with a -4 AO now to march anyways. Plus a great Pacific combined with a neutral AO/NAO can work just fine also. It's not a hecs pattern but it can produce snow. But...I'm also not that invested in what the day 20 guidance shows right now. The weeklies and CFS totally missed the November cold now. They totally missed what looks like a cold start to December. And in 2013/14 all winter we were worried about the awful long range looks that never came. And how many times in a crap year when things sucked we were waiting on some great look day 20 that never materialized. So while it's important to note the trends on guidance and discuss the possible relaxation of the pattern I'll worry more about day 20 when days 1-19 suck lol. Can't disagree with any of this. And FYI, I moved that post to the winter thread, since it was in reference to the possible pattern heading into mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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