Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha that Canadian map is basically a weenies dream. Textbook. yea, that's a 5 day mean too. Prominent longwave features in all the sweet spots. Evidence is building for a pretty sweet setup leading into December. I'm 1 week away from disrobing and going all in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: yea, that's a 5 day mean too. Prominent longwave features in all the sweet spots. Evidence is building for a pretty sweet setup leading into December. I'm 1 week away from disrobing and going all in. Just go all in. We don't need the rest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I have a question...Is there anyway to tell from this point (or perhaps in a week or two) if something like this will be sustained feature (aside from relaxations in between, of course) this winter? (Like can we tell what sir NAO and AO have in mind for the winter? Lol) We're still a month away from being able to assess the state of the AO and whether or not it's a good long lead predictor. The data shows that mean AO of -1.25 or lower for the month of December is a pretty good predictor. Can't really get a handle on that until mid-late Dec. Dec could start off on the right foot tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don’t know about that. But I’m in Colombia (South America, not Maryland or South Carolina. It’s spelled differently, but people still get it confused). Anyway, it’s 91 and disgustingly humid attm. I’m here until sunday, so I’m not vested at all in this. Good luck to y’all tho. That is just U G L Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely a -NAO. But not crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're still a month away from being able to assess the state of the AO and whether or not it's a good long lead predictor. The data shows that mean AO of -1.25 or lower for the month of December is a pretty good predictor. Can't really get a handle on that until mid-late Dec. Dec could start off on the right foot tho Darn...so we still gotta wait in suspense for another month, eh? (Although, as you said...starting off in a negative phase is certainly a start...I mean, do we have any instances where December starts off right in that department and it still didn't work out? I guess I'm just trying to see how much a possibility there is of this NOT working out and going positive or something. Looks so good right now, but I'm trying to temper my outlook for now (but gosh that's hard to do!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Darn...so we still gotta wait in suspense for another month, eh? (Although, as you said...starting off in a negative phase is certainly a start...I mean, do we have any instances where December starts off right in that department and it still didn't work out? I guess I'm just trying to see how much a possibility there is of this NOT working out and going positive or something. Looks so good right now, but I'm trying to temper my outlook for now (but gosh that's hard to do!) In reality we'll probably be waiting in suspense during all 3 met winter months. Door to door winter and the MA are rarely used in the same sentence. Always tempering your outlook is good practice. I'm already mentally prepared for whiffing during the first half of Dec and then suffering through the warm relaxation heading to the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In reality we'll probably be waiting in suspense during all 3 met winter months. Door to door winter and the MA are rarely used in the same sentence. Always tempering your outlook is good practice. I'm already mentally prepared for whiffing during the first half of Dec and then suffering through the warm relaxation heading to the holidays. Me too. But then I also think about the prospects of waiting for the inevitable advertised pattern relaxation for the holidays, following the early month "great period" fail, only to see it continue to be muted/pushed back, run after run. So you heard it here first- there will be snow on the ground for Xmas! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In reality we'll probably be waiting in suspense during all 3 met winter months. Door to door winter and the MA are rarely used in the same sentence. Always tempering your outlook is good practice. I'm already mentally prepared for whiffing during the first half of Dec and then suffering through the warm relaxation heading to the holidays. Yeah I mean...I'm not looking for door-to-door, per se...I'm just in suspense about the pattern for the winter as a whole. If we gotta whiff in December, it'll feel a lot better knowing that at least the other elements (sir AO and company) will give us ample shot sometime during winter and not go to crap. Don't want all 3 months to suck again like the last two years! So that's why I'm eyeing those elements closely...anything in December is gravy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I mean...I'm not looking for door-to-door, per se...I'm just in suspense about the pattern for the winter as a whole. If we gotta whiff in December, it'll feel a lot better knowing that at least the other elements (sir AO and company) will give us ample shot sometime during winter and not go to crap. Don't want all 3 months to suck again like the last two years! So that's why I'm eyeing those elements closely...anything in December is gravy! we've been on quite a run of +AO winters. The late 80s/early 90s was worse so it's not unprecedented but it's still quite a run. 13-14/14-15 were thefts in a way. They shouldn't have produced like they did so we scored bigly in a general NH pattern that usually doesn't work here. A lot of signs pointing towards starting off met winter on the right foot. That in itself would be "novel". I try not to look too far down the road anymore. Sometimes (too many times) we're forced to look that far because we're screwed. Not the case as of now. Another week of consistent runs showing a -AO into Dec and we'll start getting lots of fantasy storms. The good thing about fantasy storms during a -AO period is they are believable and supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: we've been on quite a run of +AO winters. The late 80s/early 90s was worse so it's not unprecedented but it's still quite a run. 13-14/14-15 were thefts in a way. They shouldn't have produced like they did so we scored bigly in a general NH pattern that usually doesn't work here. A lot of signs pointing towards starting off met winter on the right foot. That in itself would be "novel". I try not to look too far down the road anymore. Sometimes (too many times) we're forced to look that far because we're screwed. Not the case as of now. Another week of consistent runs showing a -AO into Dec and we'll start getting lots of fantasy storms. The good thing about fantasy storms during a -AO period is they are believable and supported. were going to pay for all these crappy winters. Already Tracking storms and its November. Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,march,April...6 months of this to go. You should move your lake house soon 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: were going to pay for all these crappy winters. Already Tracking storms and its November. Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,march,April...6 months of this to go. You should move your lake house soon Don't you mean that we may be REpaid for the other crappy winters? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 no i think he means there'll be enough snow that he'll actually regret wishing for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 I'll wait until after thursday before starting a thread Has ensemble support too. Damn that's a sweet look right there... 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll wait until after thursday before starting a thread Has ensemble support too. Damn that's a sweet look right there... We're really doing this already, aren't we? Lol (then again, if these looks keep popping up in LR...I don't think we'll have much choice!!) Gonna be really interesting to see where all of this goes! (and again, increasingly difficult to temper excitement if things like this keep showing up!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We're really doing this already, aren't we? Lol (then again, if these looks keep popping up in LR...I don't think we'll have much choice!!) Gonna be really interesting to see where all of this goes! (and again, increasingly difficult to temper excitement if things like this keep showing up!) We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle Dec. 2010. Absolute gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: We're really doing this already, aren't we? Lol (then again, if these looks keep popping up in LR...I don't think we'll have much choice!!) Gonna be really interesting to see where all of this goes! (and again, increasingly difficult to temper excitement if things like this keep showing up!) This time the Greenland block is working with record high NA snow cover and a continued decline in solar output , plus its cold in Canada . The feedback is working great so far. All systems GO ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle You know what? I hadn't yet discovered this site yet...and this hadn't really gotten into tracking snow in Dec 2010...And looking at how big of a miss that was...I'm kinda glad I didn't! (Because I'm sure the models were looking great until the last couple days, right? Lol I just remember seeing news reports afterward showing huge mounds of snow in New York and was a bit green with snow envy!) That was just another hard example: never, EVER trust a nina! Glad we have Niño back this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle Phew. Impressive GEFS mean continues to spit out amazing looks, use for your snowmageddon..lol. In all seriousness, it's very hard not to like this look. EPS not as gung ho with a -NAO but it's still there, correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Phew. Impressive GEFS mean continues to spit out amazing looks, use for your snowmageddon..lol. In all seriousness, it's very hard not to like this look. You ain't lyin'....00z Eps not quite as aggressive with the NAO like the gefs and geps but wants to really get the -EPO/+PNA cranking as it pushes the Aleutian low further east. All showing a -AO tho... No matter how you slice it, things are really shaping up for a Dec 5th shellacking! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 53 minutes ago, poolz1 said: You ain't lyin'....00z Eps not quite as aggressive with the NAO like the gefs and geps but wants to really get the -EPO/+PNA cranking as it pushes the Aleutian low further east. All showing a -AO tho... No matter how you slice it, things are really shaping up for a Dec 5th shellacking! With a look like this we may have to keep an eye on the day 10-12 time frame. This period is where the EPS has the most impressive NA blocking, then the PAC really improves beyond that, and it appears to weaken the -NAO a bit towards day 15. Might just be getting washed out in the means though. But yeah, how about that textbook 50-50 low sitting under the GL ridge in this panel.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Wow. HM digs up great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: You ain't lyin'....00z Eps not quite as aggressive with the NAO like the gefs and geps but wants to really get the -EPO/+PNA cranking as it pushes the Aleutian low further east. All showing a -AO tho... No matter how you slice it, things are really shaping up for a Dec 5th shellacking! I think as Webb alludes to the EPS, it does retrograde it and future projections for the -NAO might improve out in time from the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 @C.A.P.E. Yep...seeing that neg in the Ten valley with a 50/50 in position gets the juices flowing... Believe me, I know the perils of LR ops and I dont kid myself that this will change but take a look at the FV3 out in time. I post because it fits nicely with the gefs in that timeframe and gives an "idea" of what an h5 could look like. Some wild looks should start to appear in the LR... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: @C.A.P.E. Yep...seeing that neg in the Ten valley with a 50/50 in position gets the juices flowing... Believe me, I know the perils of LR ops and I dont kid myself that this will change but take a look at the FV3 out in time. I post because it fits nicely with the gefs in that timeframe and gives an "idea" of what an h5 could look like. Some wild looks should start to appear in the LR... Yeah both the GFS and the FV in recent runs have a low moving well south off the SE coast. 0z Euro op has a northern low that would appear to be too warm around day 10, but looking at the EPS there are several members hinting at a coastal low off the SE-MA coast. Something to keep an eye on in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah both the GFS and the FV in recent runs have a low moving well south off the SE coast. 0z Euro op has a northern low that would appear to be too warm around day 10, but looking at the EPS there are several members hinting at a coastal low off the SE-MA coast. Something to keep an eye on in future runs. With that advertised longwave pattern, I’d expect the op runs to start teasing us in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: Wow. HM digs up great stuff Now uh...would you anybody else care to translate that into what it could mean for the winter here? Lol I've seen him mention something this cell or something, but have had no idea what he meant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 12 hours ago, Bob Chill said: We're starting Dec with the best pattern since 09 if the models have it right. It's been forever. Dec 2010 had an incredible block but it was a nina and we had one of the worst busts I've ever experienced. Boxing day storm literally ruined Christmas day for me. Lol. Weather is serious shizzle I distinctly remember that Boxing Day bust. After an amazing 09-10 winter, SC and GA got snow that day and we got the dreaded snow hole. I'm thrilled about this winter, but I heard someone say that we will be in for a drought next winter. Not sure how anyone can predict that, but I hope it's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 lol next winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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