CAPE Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Not suggesting this winter will end up anything like 2009-10, but this was the h5 look in mid November of 2009. And roughly a month later, well, you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Ask me in a week Hmmm. Sounds like I won’t need that firewood. As expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 10, 2018 Author Share Posted November 10, 2018 18z GFS has the follow-up storm now Day 5... cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 10, 2018 Share Posted November 10, 2018 It's probably snow fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 8 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Is a little tropical system trying to develop in the SW Atlantic after the Tuesday storm leaves? Yup.. wouldnt it be interesting to see something like Sandy.. Remember the mountains got a foot plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 It'll probably turn out to be just cold rain but models seemingly starting to converge on that follow up coastal storm happening. GEFS show a shot at mixy precip, as does 18z GFS proper. 12z EURO today was also a icy/sleety mess for SW Virginia and some western parts of the state. ICON hopped on board with the follow up too. We'll see if 0z GFS does anything fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 That sure would have been a fun run 3 or 4 weeks from now. As it is...it was close to a frozen event for far NW areasSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: That sure would have been a fun run 3 or 4 weeks from now. As it is...it was close to a frozen event for far NW areas Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Definitely interesting. Climo is s b$%ch this time of year. Temps are close for Thursday morning for the nw areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 GFS is an ice/sleet storm in Charlottesville... would be odd at this time of year. Note this is obviously NOT A REALISTIC SNOW MAP (includes sleet to say the least) but shows the "extent" and "amount" of wintry precip. Massive grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Definitely interesting. Climo is s b$%ch this time of year. Temps are close for Thursday morning for the nw areas.Yep...who knows how the strength/position of that high will trend tho. Looks like most areas would at least start off as a brief period of frozen. Just a slight trend colder and it could be first flakes for many of us. Nice looking storm nonetheless... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 According to the F3 we are now rooting for a north trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: According to the F3 we are now rooting for a north trend I am trying to have some nightmares of deja vu from last year with storms or south. I'm sure this is going to change quite a bit over the next week but it's a little bit interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I am trying to have some nightmares of deja vu from last year with storms or south. I'm sure this is going to change quite a bit over the next week but it's a little bit interesting This time of year we need it to be uber cold in the mid range because it's almost guaranteed to verify warmer. -15-20 airmass required to overcome climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 GEFS have been getting more and more interested in this event over the past couple of runs. Might be hiveminding like last year but has moved from 1 GEFS member interested in the follow up wave to now all but 4. By hour 108, 11 GEFS members have some sort of mix in the area. Many are FRZA. 850s must go more favorable at hour 120 or so because a couple of members flip Western areas to snow, other spots flip to rain. ignore that, TTT doesn't support. What everyone wants to see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 EURO is rolling in. Amazing how different it is from its previous run looking into TN, AR, and MO at 108. Nothing here is set other than this being a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2018 Author Share Posted November 11, 2018 EURO is faster which is better for temps. Wintry mix for western and northern burbs at 120. Step in the right direction overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/namer/snodpth_chng/gfs_namer_120_snodpth_chng.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 06z gfsFaster onset of precipitationColder initial conditions Better high placement over upstate NYStronger system Let’s baby step into our first legit event of season! Maybe a long shot but positive signs so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 06z gfsFaster onset of precipitationColder initial conditions Better high placement over upstate NYStronger system Let’s baby step into our first legit event of season! Maybe a long shot but positive signs so far...@ 06z....just before precipitation arrives, column is plenty cool area wide. Boundary temps an issue in and around the metros but most areas 30-34 with dews 20-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Kind of a slow mover too. 24 hours or so of precipitation. Better placement just off the coast would help too. Regardless, I like the active east coast storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 GEFS is really hammering on the -NAO now. day 2-6 day 6-11 day 11-16 nao graph 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love where we are headed. I agree. Please let the gefs be right with high latitudes... starting Dec with a strong -ao rarely fails our region... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. Please let the gefs be right with high latitudes... starting Dec with a strong -ao rarely fails our region... EPS looks like its headed in the same direction, just not quite in as much of a rush as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS looks like its headed in the same direction, just not quite in as much of a rush as the GEFS. Typical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS looks like its headed in the same direction, just not quite in as much of a rush as the GEFS. Has to break right eventually. It's been 8 years since our last decent -ao pattern in Dec. 3-4 weeks to get things right... or fall apart. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Has to break right eventually. It's been 8 years since our last decent -ao pattern in Dec. 3-4 weeks to get things right... or fall apart. One or the other. Yeah its time for the streak to end with that feature. I even went all December 2009 with my profile pic for some good vibes. Might bring some luck. Or not. Probably the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. Please let the gefs be right with high latitudes... starting Dec with a strong -ao rarely fails our region... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Know there is a strong correlation between a -AO in December progressing throughout the winter but do you know offhand how strong a correlation that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Know there is a strong correlation between a -AO in December progressing throughout the winter but do you know offhand how strong a correlation that is? If it's -1.25 or lower it's near perfect. I have the data spread saved somewhere. I'll see if I can find it later and post it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 11, 2018 Share Posted November 11, 2018 Andrew makes some wild 3 D animations regarding the strat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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