purduewx80 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 13 hours ago, winterwx21 said: A lot of models have the rain coming in well before midnight now. Looks to me as if rain starts around 9 to 10pm friday night and tapers off late morning saturday. agree on the start time and think any heavy rain threat is primarily in the morning, ending by ~10AM. light rain and/or drizzle should continue throughout the day, however. lapse rates with the incoming dry slot during the morning hours are nothing to sneeze at. forecast soundings show up to 500 j/kg of CAPE at JFK based around 800mb, so some embedded heavy showers appear likely. thunder risk is much higher in the low-level warm sector offshore but believe chances are non-zero around here given the advection of instability on a 50-60KT low level jet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 12Z NAM-confirms a fast mover and out by mid day as far as the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12Z NAM-confirms a fast mover and out by mid day as far as the heaviest precip. Not much of a storm regarding total precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 54 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: agree on the start time and think any heavy rain threat is primarily in the morning, ending by ~10AM. light rain and/or drizzle should continue throughout the day, however. lapse rates with the incoming dry slot during the morning hours are nothing to sneeze at. forecast soundings show up to 500 j/kg of CAPE at JFK based around 800mb, so some embedded heavy showers appear likely. thunder risk is much higher in the low-level warm sector offshore but believe chances are non-zero around here given the advection of instability on a 50-60KT low level jet. Yeah, another fall event with these anomalously steep mid level lapse rates. Looks like there will be a window Saturday morning where the elevated cape and LLJ max overlap. That will probably be the time of the greatest wind and heaviest rainfall rates. Has more of a convective appearance than the typical fall nor'easter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 51 minutes ago, Animal said: Not much of a storm regarding total precipitation. Precip is rarely robust in these setups because we will be in the cold sector. As you can see the QPF is greater East of the track where things will be more convective in nature. If this was Winter the potential would have been there for a quick 6-12” thump before the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skarkster Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 How do you think NYC airports will be effected on Saturday. Have a flight from LGA at 10 AM to Chicago... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, skarkster said: How do you think NYC airports will be effected on Saturday. Have a flight from LGA at 10 AM to Chicago... there will definitely be arrival delays and probably some cancellations due to the excessive wind gusts limiting the amount of runways they can use. your departure depends on when that plane initially gets into LGA. most NYC to ORD flights would not be canceled since these are hubs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skarkster Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: there will definitely be arrival delays and probably some cancellations due to the excessive wind gusts limiting the amount of runways they can use. your departure depends on when that plane initially gets into LGA. most NYC to ORD flights would not be canceled since these are hubs. Looks like the inbound flight gets in the night before...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 On 10/24/2018 at 11:29 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I tend to agree in a steady state climate that was a 200-500 year event. But with things being in uncaharted waters anything is possible. I still think the storm is stronger then currently modeled. Yes this really is unprecedented in terms of the wild swings in weather we have now. What I find absolutely amazing is with how frigid the 1870-1920 period was, we had zero measurable October snow in that period at Central Park (or at least none that was 1 inch or higher.) So it's pretty mindblowing that in 2011 in October you could get something that you never got during the frigid 1870-1920 period! A period during which NYC consistently averaged over 30 inches of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: 12Z NAM-confirms a fast mover and out by mid day as far as the heaviest precip. Sounds like a positive NAO storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: agree on the start time and think any heavy rain threat is primarily in the morning, ending by ~10AM. light rain and/or drizzle should continue throughout the day, however. lapse rates with the incoming dry slot during the morning hours are nothing to sneeze at. forecast soundings show up to 500 j/kg of CAPE at JFK based around 800mb, so some embedded heavy showers appear likely. thunder risk is much higher in the low-level warm sector offshore but believe chances are non-zero around here given the advection of instability on a 50-60KT low level jet. A lot of our local forecasters are calling for widespread thunderstorms on Saturday. Ch 12 Long Island is going with heavy rain between 9 AM and 3 PM locally up to 3" with 60 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 On 10/24/2018 at 10:34 AM, gravitylover said: You keep forgetting October 2012. That was equally as bad here although I don't think the power was out for as long, maybe 3 days instead of 5+ but that was because we had lost so many big trees just a year before. October 2012, Sandy. I was referring to a big snow event in October they're really rare for the coast. Up where you are, it's like a 1 in 10 year event to get a snow event in October I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Sounds like a positive NAO storm. It's not. The storm is a quick mover and not completely organized due to multiple pieces of energy interfering with each other instead of a single consolidated phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 CMC and Euro are quite potent. Both are stronger and a bit slower than the Gfs with a good chance at 2"+ rain amounts for someone and some really strong winds along the coasts (easily 40-60 mph). EPS nearly identical to Op run, could mean the low ends up a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's not. The storm is a quick mover and not completely organized due to multiple pieces of energy interfering with each other instead of a single consolidated phase. which is why we saw the 970 mb lows disappear from modeling a few days ago... - Euro has about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, most of it Friday night and Saturday before noon. Winds peak 2-5pm with gusts close to 50 for coastal spots, less inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's not. The storm is a quick mover and not completely organized due to multiple pieces of energy interfering with each other instead of a single consolidated phase. Oh that's probably why it's relatively weak (forecast to be around 999 mb). The high winds are going to be from a combo of the storm plus high pressure to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh that's probably why it's relatively weak (forecast to be around 999 mb). The high winds are going to be from a combo of the storm plus high pressure to the NE. A few days ago you had a slower timed system which would have allowed the high to the North to get into better position and drive some cold air in on the NW side. The faster timing along with the less phased solution led to a weaker storm evolution and overall less impactful system than first thought. With that being said, this should still be a pretty solid system with a heavy wind driven rain for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Coastal Flood Watch and a Wind Advisory up here from late Friday night thru Saturday morning. Winds could gust up to 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like a solid high end moderate coastal flooding event for the Saturday morning into early afternoon high tide. Wouldn't take much more of a surge to get to low end major levels. Freeport is low end major 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A few days ago you had a slower timed system which would have allowed the high to the North to get into better position and drive some cold air in on the NW side. The faster timing along with the less phased solution led to a weaker storm evolution and overall less impactful system than first thought. With that being said, this should still be a pretty solid system with a heavy wind driven rain for several hours. Yea, I'm still going to enjoy this storm, just not enthused by the idea of heavy rain occurring at night and drizzle during the day lol. Same goes with snow.... I like to see the heaviest precip timed with daylight hours and also with the highest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Freeport is low end major That's where I'm heading to cover flooding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 7 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: That's where I'm heading to cover flooding I'll be there too... as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 I know how Freeport floods and I know when to bail. It will come up all around you if you're not careful and it will be hard to escape. Don't ruin your vehicle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 The 12z RGEM had a more robust looking system with more influence from the high to the North. You can see here the sagging in the isobars over the Hudson Valley which is a CAD (cold air damming) signature. That basically means that the flow from the high to the North is helping to bring down cold, dry air on the Northern edge. It could also locally increase deformation banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: Freeport is low end major Yeah, it looks like it may come close to the low end major flooding event last March in the back bays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it looks like it may come close to the low end major flooding event last March in the back bays. That was a pretty solid event. The end of my street was completely submerged which is a 1 in 3-5 year type event. Those that raised their houses after sandy but not the property lost any replacement landscaping. If it were me I would spend some extra money on fill to raise the entire property. This is going to be a recurring issue in years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2018 Author Share Posted October 25, 2018 52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That was a pretty solid event. The end of my street was completely submerged which is a 1 in 3-5 year type event. Those that raised their houses after sandy but not the property lost any replacement landscaping. If it were me I would spend some extra money on fill to raise the entire property. This is going to be a recurring issue in years to come. We'll see how close to the March levels the 12z guidance comes in on Friday. It makes sense to elevate the entire property when raising the house if you have landscaping. The exception would be the West End of Long Beach where numerous raised homes have mostly concrete around them. Did you see the report about all the parking problems that the home raising is causing? Freeport NY MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.7 FT, MODERATE 6.2 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.2 FT, MODERATE 1.7 FT, MAJOR 2.4 FT FOR NGVD - SUBTRACT 1.2 FT FROM MLLW VALUES Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 27/11 AM 6.5/ 7.0 2.0/ 2.5 2.7/ 3.2 0-2 Mod-Maj 27/11 PM 5.7/ 6.2 1.3/ 1.8 2.7/ 3.2 0-1 Min-Mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 The 18z GFS looks a bit wetter to me then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, Rjay said: I know how Freeport floods and I know when to bail. It will come up all around you if you're not careful and it will be hard to escape. Don't ruin your vehicle. We'll see how the new drainage/flood preventing system they put in over the summer on guy Lombard ave works.Thats the worse spot in freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now