NJwx85 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, MeteorologicalFan said: This is cutting that means rain for everyone and rain up from Friday after midnight until Saturday afternoon. Drizzle Saturday night, Sunday sprinkles a bit windy with a shower or two turning colder Sunday night. This tracks overhead or just to the SW, not a true cutter that would put us into the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This tracks overhead or just to the SW, not a true cutter that would put us into the warm sector. You’re right it’s not cutting yet, but the trend is for this to cut and go over philly and the poconos. That would be a cutter. Regardless if this was a true bm track we would have snow in burbs like the gfs was showing yesterday at 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 minute ago, MeteorologicalFan said: You’re right it’s not cutting yet, but the trend is for this to cut and go over philly and the poconos. That would be a cutter. Regardless if this was a true bm track we would have snow in burbs like the gfs was showing yesterday at 6z run Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it. This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it. This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England. I think you’re wrong if this was a perfect track and low in the 980 range people north of Yorktown heights would have gotten wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, MeteorologicalFan said: I think you’re wrong if this was a perfect track and low in the 980 range people north of Yorktown heights would have gotten wet snow. Stop... 'perfect' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 7 hours ago, Rtd208 said: On a side note, never let "bluewave" start a storm specific thread again lol. Lol - this was funny joke (and know you are joking here) . But for uninitiated, Bluewave is one of our Crown Jewels - on the whole board, or Eastern, or WWBB. Anytime the dude has reflected/conjectured/observed on something it is undoubtedly a sign to take it with keen attention and gravitas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 We have to watch for the timing of the peak winds and surge this weekend. The late Saturday morning and early afternoon high tide cycle is one of the highest for October with the full moon.The nighttime high tide cycle is about a foot lower. Wind gusts over 50 mph along the coast will also have the potential to down branches and trees with the wet soil and fully leafed out trees. The early peak surge estimates are around 2-3 feet. So the exact timing is important. All that is needed for low end major coastal flooding is a 3 foot surge with the morning into early afternoon high tide. Astronomical tide heights with the full moon. Sandy Hook is shown below with back bays and LI Sound a bit later. Wed 24 2:06 AM EDT / -0.1 ft 8:09 AM EDT / 5.5 ft 2:39 PM EDT / -0.1 ft 8:30 PM EDT / 5.2 ft Full Moon 7:16 AM EDT 6:02 PM EDT Thu 25 2:45 AM EDT / -0.2 ft 8:44 AM EDT / 5.7 ft 3:22 PM EDT / -0.2 ft 9:09 PM EDT / 5.1 ft 7:17 AM EDT 6:01 PM EDT Fri 26 3:25 AM EDT / -0.2 ft 9:22 AM EDT / 5.8 ft 4:05 PM EDT / -0.2 ft 9:52 PM EDT / 5.0 ft 7:19 AM EDT 6:00 PM EDT Sat 27 4:06 AM EDT / -0.1 ft 10:03 AM EDT / 5.7 ft 4:49 PM EDT / -0.1 ft 10:40 PM EDT / 4.8 ft 7:20 AM EDT 5:58 PM EDT Sun 28 4:48 AM EDT / 0.0 ft 10:51 AM EDT / 5.6 ft 5:37 PM EDT / 0.0 ft 11:36 PM EDT / 4.6 ft 7:21 AM EDT 5:57 PM EDT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Jamaica Bay: Sat Oct 27 10:37am 6.23 ft High Tide Sat Oct 27 5:11pm -0.06 ft Low Tide Sat Oct 27 11:14pm 5.21 ft High Tide Sun Oct 28 5:08am 0.04 ft Low Tide Sun Oct 28 11:26am 6.12 ft High Tide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Blue- where did you get that surge map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Models have a tuff time with events that include tropical moisture. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this develope into a warm core low. So pressure estimates that everyone seems to be obesssd with may be low at this time. Bump that into the strong high to our north and you end up with an over pro forming wind event. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high wind warning verifying event on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Sandy Hook should expect 3FT. AN Storm Surge late Sat. This is the Steven's Instit. estimate now. Seas of 20' near Buoy 44065. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 39 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Sandy Hook should expect 3FT. AN Storm Surge late Sat. This is the Steven's Instit. estimate now. Seas of 20' near Buoy 44065. Saturday evening high tide looks most impacted but like bluewave stated it's about a foot lower than Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Models have a tuff time with events that include tropical moisture. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this develope into a warm core low. So pressure estimates that everyone seems to be obesssd with may be low at this time. Bump that into the strong high to our north and you end up with an over pro forming wind event. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a high wind warning verifying event on the coast. I too think winds will be stronger near the coast due to some tropical influences though it depends on the track. For bigger coastal impacts, you'd want the low to curve NW into the coast rather than offshore. If the high get as strong as models predict then storm will have to slow down as well and crawl north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it. This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England. People have got distorted views of October storms because of October 2011 lol. Thats like a one in multihundred year event. Just be glad we're getting to see a strong coastal right now- that bodes well for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: Saturday evening high tide looks most impacted but like bluewave stated it's about a foot lower than Saturday morning Saturday morning's is King Tide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it. This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England. My Holly afd mentions snow is possible above 1000 ft in nw nj & the Poconos in the afd this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Yesterday's 20ft. seas at Buoy 44065 are projected at 15ft. now. Surge at Sandy Hook down to 2.5ft. from 3ft. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: People have got distorted views of October storms because of October 2011 lol. Thats like a one in multihundred year event. Just be glad we're getting to see a strong coastal right now- that bodes well for winter. You keep forgetting October 2012. That was equally as bad here although I don't think the power was out for as long, maybe 3 days instead of 5+ but that was because we had lost so many big trees just a year before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: People have got distorted views of October storms because of October 2011 lol. Thats like a one in multihundred year event. Just be glad we're getting to see a strong coastal right now- that bodes well for winter. I tend to agree in a steady state climate that was a 200-500 year event. But with things being in uncaharted waters anything is possible. I still think the storm is stronger then currently modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 The 12z GFS has surface winds in the 40-50MPH range for most of the coastline Saturday morning with heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Still pretty significant timing differences between the models. NAM and CMC wrap up the steady precip by noon Saturday, GFS keeps it going through the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Storm still looking like a run of the mill Noreaster, its very weak I would not expect any winds over 50 mph anywhere even on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Euro looked quite potent, it does really well with these Miller A type tracks. AN SSTs and a tropical connection probably ensures some 50-60 mph gusts are probable. We'll have to see what the trends will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Storm still looking like a run of the mill Noreaster, its very weak I would not expect any winds over 50 mph anywhere even on the coast. Just because the surface low isn't that deep doesn't mean the potential isn't there for some nasty winds. As others have said, the wind threat will come from the tight pressure gradient between the high to the North and the surface low pressure. This is the 850mb level on the Euro which corresponds with the heavier precip so expect some of this to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Storm still looking like a run of the mill Noreaster, its very weak I would not expect any winds over 50 mph anywhere even on the coast. Thanks for the daily reminder. Why keep posting about it? 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: Storm still looking like a run of the mill Noreaster, its very weak I would not expect any winds over 50 mph anywhere even on the coast. 50 brings down big trees. When a couple hundred thousand people have no power you can tell them it was a run of the mill, weak storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Models continue to have most of the precip out by midday Saturday with only lingering showers after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: 50 brings down big trees. When a couple hundred thousand people have no power you can tell them it was a run of the mill, weak storm. Exactly. Especially at the coast we’re we are still 90% in full leaf. The guy is just trolling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 I’m going to predict this again... rain Friday night after midnight. Heavy rain up until 10am Saturday. Showers continuing until about 3-4pm drizzle for the evening. Cloudy Saturday night with some showers and sprinkles Sunday. no winds higher than 50mph gusts. This will be a flooding problem at most with some surge Saturday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 12 minutes ago, MeteorologicalFan said: I’m going to predict this again... rain Friday night after midnight. Heavy rain up until 10am Saturday. Showers continuing until about 3-4pm drizzle for the evening. Cloudy Saturday night with some showers and sprinkles Sunday. no winds higher than 50mph gusts. This will be a flooding problem at most with some surge Saturday morning! A lot of models have the rain coming in well before midnight now. Looks to me as if rain starts around 9 to 10pm friday night and tapers off late morning saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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