uncle W Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 for now these are my weighted analogs...1957-58 came during a high Sun spot period...QBO was slightly positive around January all three years after a very negative previous year...the ao and nao are predicted to go negative to set the stage for the up coming winter...like last year I expect to see the heaviest snows when the AO goes negative... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Question, because I just got back into the weather follow-up as I've turned my furnace over and the heat has come on at night and in the early morning... why is this year forecast to have a mild December? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 There won't be many events, but there will be 2 massive storms one in the January 20-30th period and the second February 10-15th. The 2'+ from the second will melt in 4 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 hours ago, North and West said: Question, because I just got back into the weather follow-up as I've turned my furnace over and the heat has come on at night and in the early morning... why is this year forecast to have a mild December? Thanks. Nino's traditionally have a later start in the east. The exceptions are usually some of our best winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Nino's traditionally have a later start in the east. The exceptions are usually some of our best winters.Thank you! Glad to be getting back into it. I’ll be over it by January 5th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 NYC will beat 95/96, SSTs + Weak/Moderate Nino + Near solar minimum + well AN precip this year + recent record breaking weather will fuel at least 2 massive storms. 60-75"+ for the metro December: AN Temps, AN Precip with 5-10" January: BN Temps, AN Precip with 20-25" February: Well BN Temps, Well AN Precip with 30-35" March: BN Temps, Near normal Precip with 5-10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: There won't be many events, but there will be 2 massive storms one in the January 20-30th period and the second February 10-15th. The 2'+ from the second will melt in 4 days. I thimk that's a good guess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 the ao and nao better be negative in December or the odds for a cold snowy December will be slim... the chart below is ave temp and above ave snowfall in blue...black is near ave...negative ao and nao in blue...positive ao/nao in red...the nao and ao were negative for the coldest nine Decembers...six of the nine had above average snowfall...the bottom twelve were all above average in temps and below average in snowfall...only 1987 had a neg ao but positive nao...1957 had above average snowfall despite having a positive ao nao...the snow came early in Dec. 1957 after a negative ao November... year.....ave temp...snowfall.....ao.....nao 1958.......29.4.........3.8".......-1.687.......-0.70 1976.......29.9.........5.1".......-2.074.......-1.60 1963.......31.2.......11.3".......-1.178.......-1.92 1969.......33.4.........6.8".......-1.856.......-0.28 1968.......34.3.........7.0".......-0.783.......-1.40 1977.......35.7.........0.4".......-0.240.......-1.00 2009.......35.9.......12.4".......-3.413.......-1.93 2002.......36.0.......11.0".......-1.592.......-0.94 1997.......38.3..........T..........-0.071.......-0.96 2004.......38.4........3.0"......+1.230.......+1.21 1972.......38.5..........T........+1.238.......+0.19 1986.......39.0........0.6"......+0.060.......+0.99 1987.......39.5........2.6".......-0.534.......+0.32 1991.......39.6........0.7"......+1.613.......+0.46 1957.......40.2........8.7"......+0.828.......+0.12 2014.......40.5........1.0"......+0.413.......+1.86 1965.......40.5..........T........+0.163.......+1.37 1979.......41.1........3.5"......+1.295.......+1.00 1994.......42.2..........T........+0.894.......+2.02 1982.......42.8........3.0"......+0.967.......+1.78 2006.......43.6..........0........+2.282.......+1.34 2015.......50.8..........T........+1.444........+2.24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I put together the Islip El Nino stats since 2000 for the posters on Long Island. December generally had the warmest temperature departure of DJF. Even on the years with a cold December temperature departure, it was still a warmer departure than the coldest winter month. The only 2 -NAO/-AO Decembers were 2002 and 2009. They were colder than normal and had 10" or more of snow for the month. 2002-2003.....ISP snowfall missing so BNL was used as a substitute Seasonal snow.....62.1" Dec....-2.2.....11.5".....-NAO/-AO Jan...-4.4 Feb...-4.5 Mar...-2.4 2004-2005 58.8" Dec....-0.4 JAN....-2.3 Feb....-0.5 Mar....-4.7 2006-2007 9.0" Dec....+5.5 Jan....+5.3 Feb....-5.7 Mar...-1.0 2009-2010 53.8" Dec....-1.1.....25.3" .....-NAO/-AO Jan.....-0.2 Feb....-1.4 Mar....+5.8 2014-2015 63.7" Dec...+4.0 Jan....-1.9 Feb....-11.2 Mar...-4.1 2015-2016 41.4" Dec....+12.8 Jan....+2.7 Feb....+2.9 Mar...+6.2 How about Central Park? sorry to bother you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 To me it looks like a 75% chance of us getting above average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 I am going with what Dr. Judah Cohen said, cold in the Northeast, with a suppressed jet, with the mid-atlantic getting the jackpot snows. So for NYC Dec -2 ....2" Jan -2 ..... 5" Feb 0 ..... 11" Mar + 2.... 2" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Suppressed with his positive nao? Thatll be impressive. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Mojave1946 said: Snowfall Predictions 2018-19 Winter: Black Hills of S.D.: 100" - 200" White Plains, NY: 5" Islip, NY: 4" LGA: 2" Central Park: 1" JFK: Trace These are historically low numbers for the NYC area. Can you please expand on the elements of your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Mojave1946 said: Snowfall Predictions 2018-19 Winter: Black Hills of S.D.: 100" - 200" White Plains, NY: 5" Islip, NY: 4" LGA: 2" Central Park: 1" JFK: Trace Troll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Don’t we know someone who lives in the black hills of SD? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Don’t we know someone who lives in the black hills of SD? Hmm yes we do lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Duh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, doncat said: Hmm yes we do lol. 46 minutes ago, Rjay said: Duh I know who it is, I just wanted to start something lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 48 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I know who it is, I just wanted to start something lol Pam how’s your rain tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Earthlight's winter forecast https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/11/02/winter-forecast-2018-2019/ Snowfall well above normal for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight's winter forecast https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/11/02/winter-forecast-2018-2019/ Snowfall well above normal for NYC Thanks for posting 88, Im not going to lie some of it was hard for me to understand but I get the gist and heres to a Snowy Feb if not much more of the winter !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Earthlight's winter forecast https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/11/02/winter-forecast-2018-2019/ Snowfall well above normal for NYC That's nice and all though I do miss the front loaded stuff of a 10/11. As great as March was last year we missed out on a lot because of how late in the winter it was. Hopefully we see a repeat of that pattern a month earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 DT going with very snowy. 200% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 I’m always more bullish about a Nino winter than a Nina (although those have been good here too lately), and hopefully the west-based Nino and the NAO can help. I’m joining the North Shore crew in a couple weeks-moving to Huntington. Should be an improvement over LB-watch this winter be full of South Shore scrapers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 1) Maryland, WV, PA have their wettest years to date since 1895. 2) The PV has been displaced over Hudson Bay/Great Lakes since 2013 3) El Nino is weak-moderate and west-based. Ideal for snow. 4) NAO has been positive like 300 straight days. Now looks to go positive again mid-November. Law of averages says -NAO Winter with Stratospheric warming\ 5) Pacific looks great right now, +PNA El Nino driven, not allowing -PNA transitory waves. 6) etc. lots of snow. Global warming has stopped I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 On 11/2/2018 at 10:09 PM, Stormlover74 said: DT going with very snowy. 200% of normal Yeah that would equate to 60"+ for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 hours ago, doncat said: Yeah that would equate to 60"+ for the metro How funny would it be if we saw a 01/02 type winter after all these high end predictions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 4 hours ago, doncat said: Yeah that would equate to 60"+ for the metro Pretty bullish. That's not an easy number to reach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 11/3/2018 at 12:03 AM, jm1220 said: I’m always more bullish about a Nino winter than a Nina (although those have been good here too lately), and hopefully the west-based Nino and the NAO can help. I’m joining the North Shore crew in a couple weeks-moving to Huntington. Should be an improvement over LB-watch this winter be full of South Shore scrapers. Wow you went for it! From the least snowy place on Long Island to arguably the most. My thoughts, 01/02 as unlikely as 95/96 Several cold stormy/snowy periods and several warm periods. Overall the winter ends up 50% snowier then normal across the board for the region. I like the idea of a couple big nor’easters though they may not all be snow for the coast. That Atlantic Tripol of warmth screams tons of baroclynicity off the coast. overall while not our coldest or snowiest winter the good old days keep rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Above normal snowfall likely https://imgur.com/a/zy9C06R https://imgur.com/a/GDssXGQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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