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Annual end of Oct blockbuster


Ginx snewx
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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS may have warm biases (...or not) but so to does "October"    

Anyway, ... large scale structural components do have some text-book aspects about them.  Literally...the nearer term Maine exit cyclogenesis and backside CAA looks right out of the K.U. catalog derived check-list, because at that time, ...it could be providing subsequent E.C. cyclone with cold air arriving 36 hours.  There are multiple isobars crossing the sub-540 dm thicknesses with this lead system - i.e., deep layer CAA. 

The problem is then two folds... How much?  2nd, the models appear as though they are moderating that cold too soon - however, by what standards?   I'm not sure what the recovery rate on air masses of the -1 or -2 SD in the critical thickness levels ( < 700 mb ) really is in late October.   As 2011 demonstrated, sometimes we need to get in tighter to the event before the models "see" the extend/magnitude of that particular component.   

For that matter ... I'd love to share an email with the moder(s) at NCEP ..whether the global-based numerical guidance 'factors' in climatology prior to release and consumption for the public. I am wondering if that cold complexion recovery speed might be caused because if there is an anomaly the models "might" be working a bit hard to normalize - 

I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc.

Yeah, that could be it...  

And agreed - one would think that temps ...and thus, integrated thickness intervals, should be seen prior to adulteration by the artistry of the industry -heh. 

It just seems awful fast how quickly that's warming...   But, the high is also not retreating in the best location... A bit eastward ballast - should impart a pretty hefty long shore fetch and forget it - 

I dunno... a few things need to happen for cold enthusiasts -

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the only thing that might factor in, is solar. Perhaps the late Feb sun could cause it to warm a little too quickly, but unlike MOS guidance, models should only spit out temps based off of equations etc.

Mid-Feb angle by the weekend (nitpick alert), though the SSTs being 15° warmer than mid Feb will also be in play for any wind off the water.

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Just keep this in the back of your mind. 

Around Sunday ... Nor`Easter. Better model forecast agreement. High
pressure NE ahead of a surface low drawn back, stacking beneath the
mid-upper level low. Cyclonic conveyor belt motions, trowaling over
isallobaric, undercutting colder air, watching wet-bulbs. Potential
banding signatures with deformation zones. Still uncertainty, model
spread with both strength and timing. However anomalous ensemble
signals emerging. While some indication of NW high terrain wet snow
with leafed trees the bigger concern is 11 ft Boston high tides with
a 3-4 standard deviation E onshore flow. If low bombs, the greater
the concern. Patience for now, evaluate later forecasts.
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31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its kickoff season. Those expectations of snow should be kept in check. My bet is Pete Dendritic land and you see accumulated snow by the weekend. 

Mid-week has a shot too with NW flow and some cyclonic moisture.  I think we'll see more flakes flying.  Been a lot of days with flakes flying lately.

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