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Annual end of Oct blockbuster


Ginx snewx
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49 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Do Nor'Easters want to develop and pass near to the benchmark based on physics? It seems as though the benchmark would be the top of the bell curve, or in other words do lows have a propensity to gravitate towards the benchmark? It seems that way to me and often get model shifts towards that direction.

No. I'm pretty sure the "BM" was used as a general lat/long where storms passing near or at that location most greatly affected SNE.

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Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains.

Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now...

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains.

Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now...

Keep any eye on that high pressing the cold south, Its probably not done trending colder at the surface, Lows are in the single digits over Northern Maine saturday morning so there is a cold airmass.

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There's a lot of wave interference with this in recent model runs... In fact, there's a discerned trend to really have the deeper whole-scale amplitude take place a day and half later beyond Sunday.

These features are coming off the Pacific Basin at a low trajectory - i.e., not as much in the physical soundings.  It's not entirely clear to me the models have a firm handle on what material they really want to use in conjunction with the L/W amplification.  They could start backing off the lead - they could come back with it.

 

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Odd to see the 12z EPS with more or less same intensity SLP as the Euro op and GFS op at 96 hr. Imo that’s a red flag the ops are too weak given the overall set up. AO and NAO quite favorable heading into the event for a highly anomalous storm system. I think we’ll see some trends back towards the solutions we saw a few days back. Expecting some sort of middle ground solution to verify—slower track along the east coast to allow better phase interaction with PV dropping in through the Plains.

Also worth noting the HP over New Brunswick has been trending stronger for many runs now...

Asptesantus, welcome back jb

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6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Although it's still clown range for the 3-km NAM, the distinct possibility is there for an isothermal wind driven blue bomb here on Saturday morning before the warmth comes in and flips it to cold rain Saturday afternoon. Maybe I can test out the new snow blower???

I hope so I’ll be just north of you Skiing at Mt Snow. Maybe we can stay mostly Snow until afternoon !!!

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1 minute ago, LaxSki said:

I hope so I’ll be just north of you Skiing at Mt Snow. Maybe we can stay mostly Snow until afternoon !!!

Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites.

6 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Although it's still clown range for the 3-km NAM, the distinct possibility is there for an isothermal wind driven blue bomb here on Saturday morning before the warmth comes in and flips it to cold rain Saturday afternoon. Maybe I can test out the new snow blower???

Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation.

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4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites.

Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation.

 

4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Hopefully the wind doesn't turn the bubbles into kites.

Can definitely see it starting as snow at that elevation.

At the very least it will be an interesting weather day for the opening day of the Ski Season in October no less!!

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