HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't sleep on this I’d put the odds of anything significant (more than 1”?) in the snow department at <25% for most of SNE. Should still be a fun storm. Wild looking on models at the moment We watch. We wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't sleep on this Describe thoughts here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 It's not like 2011 when we laid the carpet with a predecessor snowfall and some frigid weather. You probably want to be way in and way up for this one but it's worth monitoring, perhaps first flakes at the beginning or a bit of mixed junk for interior SNE at the start but way too early to iron out specifics until we get a better handle on storm track/intensity/high placement and strength and the air mass/temp profile we're looking at. No thanks on another Snowtober event, 14 inches of cement on almost fully leafed trees can make for a very, very long week with a young family. I'll take a nice coating or slushy inch of snowliage and be very content with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 Believe it or not this upcoming storm is similar to Dec 3rd 2007 , lots of similar upper air features. Dont sleep on it. Cat paws special ORH 2007-12-01 33 13 23.0 -11.7 42 0 T T 0 2007-12-02 23 13 18.0 -16.3 47 0 0.04 0.5 0 2007-12-03 33 22 27.5 -6.5 37 0 0.50 1.6 0 2007-12-04 24 15 19.5 -14.1 45 0 T T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 One thing interesting this October is the quick fall in SSTs in the Gulf of Maine, it's down to 13C just northeast of Cape Cod, this will be important when it comes to December and into the winter snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 2 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said: It's not like 2011 when we laid the carpet with a predecessor snowfall and some frigid weather. You probably want to be way in and way up for this one but it's worth monitoring, perhaps first flakes at the beginning or a bit of mixed junk for interior SNE at the start but way too early to iron out specifics until we get a better handle on storm track/intensity/high placement and strength and the air mass/temp profile we're looking at. No thanks on another Snowtober event, 14 inches of cement on almost fully leafed trees can make for a very, very long week with a young family. I'll take a nice coating or slushy inch of snowliage and be very content with that. I do not remember any predecessor snowfall, or cold weather before the bomb in October of 2011?? I remember it being quite mild the days before the storm...the day before(Friday) was over 60 if memory serves me right...no?? The days following the storm were very cold if that’s what you’re meaning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I do not remember any predecessor snowfall, or cold weather before the bomb in October of 2011?? I remember it being quite mild the days before the storm...the day before(Friday) was over 60 if memory serves me right...no?? The days following the storm were very cold if that’s what you’re meaning?? I’m with Wolf here....that 2011 thing just showed up on my doorstep and was like “hey care if I drop a few trees and power poles for ya?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I’ll dig up a pic......hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Gonna have to dig further for 2011 pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I do not remember any predecessor snowfall, or cold weather before the bomb in October of 2011?? I remember it being quite mild the days before the storm...the day before(Friday) was over 60 if memory serves me right...no?? The days following the storm were very cold if that’s what you’re meaning?? We had a small amount of snow 2 days prior to the October snowstorm. It was a high elevation snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Sleep on it. We rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I do not remember any predecessor snowfall, or cold weather before the bomb in October of 2011?? I remember it being quite mild the days before the storm...the day before(Friday) was over 60 if memory serves me right...no?? The days following the storm were very cold if that’s what you’re meaning?? There was a cold front 6 hours ago, WinterWolf said: I do not remember any predecessor snowfall, or cold weather before the bomb in October of 2011?? I remember it being quite mild the days before the storm...the day before(Friday) was over 60 if memory serves me right...no?? The days following the storm were very cold if that’s what you’re meaning?? There was a cold front passage with a swath of lighter snows in parts of CT but more importantly a deep cold air mass in place just prior to snowtober, it was not a marginal or retreating high pressure. we were locked in. You guys need to look stuff up. In general the event was highly unexpected but when we got closer it was very clear there was some impressive cold coming in just before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I had around 2-3” in the smaller event 3 days prior. I thought that was pretty cool Little did I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: There was a cold front There was a cold front passage with a swath of lighter snows in parts of CT but more importantly a deep cold air mass in place just prior to snowtober, it was not a marginal or retreating high pressure. we were locked in. You guys need to look stuff up. In general the event was highly unexpected but when we got closer it was very clear there was some impressive cold coming in just before the storm. Lol.. you just can’t make that stuff up . Good call .. It was a very chilly week leading up to the storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Man it was 7 years ago and these guys had it ass backwards. There was more cold before the storm than afterwards and it did not just drop on our doorstep if you were actually following the weather modeling or weather forums, blogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I'm just taking it as a good sign that we remain active at this juncture. If the winter is half as wet as summer was, we in bidness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 looks rainy on models currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Man it was 7 years ago and these guys had it ass backwards. There was more cold before the storm than afterwards and it did not just drop on our doorstep if you were actually following the weather modeling or weather forums, blogs. So angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: So angry. Just a bit annoyed. I tend to remember the most exciting weather events I'm my lifetime. We good. Let the wolf howl and ice, ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: looks rainy on models currently Always the safe bet in October. I think that other than wishcasting, anyone more in SNE is setting themselves up for disappointment this go 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Rains to Maines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Sleep on it. We rain. We never sleep even with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Need an anomalous cold airmass to get it done and we don’t have it, never have. NNE, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Could be a nasty start to this in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Track is juat too far west. Would have to slow down to catch the northern stream sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I recall it was raining that day and it gradually changed over to snow. By my house in Coventry at the time, it only accumulated on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Just a bit annoyed. I tend to remember the most exciting weather events I'm my lifetime. We good. Let the wolf howl and ice, ice baby. Whoa...take it easy. Nobody was howling or angry at all!! Geez. in my town there was no snow prior. And while I had the high temp the day before wrong(sorry my mistake), it was about 50 degrees on that Friday in my location...which hardly screams snow here. And with some sunshine it felt quite mild. Nothing that would make anybody think snow was on the way..not here anyway. Farther north and in higher elevated spots you had a precursor..but not here in central CT. So that’s where I was coming from. And then the temp dropped overnight and kept dropping. Was forecast to rain here for the whole day til late afternoon..then change to snow gradually toward evening. As we know that was very wrong...and it started as snow from the start. My girlfriend and family...and the general public believed we’d have no, or very little snow as late as that early morning...so it was a huge surprise for most in this area when it started out as snow...and went nuts. Didnt mean to anger you Valley...and I too remember what happened here in my area. Different areas..different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Whoa...take it easy. Nobody was howling or angry at all!! Geez. in my town there was no snow prior. And while I had the high temp the day before wrong(sorry my mistake), it was about 50 degrees on that Friday in my location...which hardly screams snow here. And with some sunshine it felt quite mild. Nothing that would make anybody think snow was on the way..not here anyway. Farther north and in higher elevated spots you had a precursor..but not here in central CT. So that’s where I was coming from. And then the temp dropped overnight and kept dropping. Was forecast to rain here for the whole day til late afternoon..then change to snow gradually toward evening. As we know that was very wrong...and it started as snow from the start. My girlfriend and family...and the general public believed we’d have no, or very little snow as late as that early morning...so it was a huge surprise for most in this area when it started out as snow...and went nuts. Didnt mean to anger you Valley...and I too remember what happened here in my area. Different areas..different things. No offense taken and I'm sorry if I offended you. Your view tends to represent what much of the public would have thought about the storm, and the storm did overperform but there were also some pretty clear meteorological signs if you were following the model data and people like Ryan Hanrahan closely. You were definitely in a bit more of a marginal area being further south but I'm pretty sure you were in a winter storm watch the day before and upgraded to a warning and projected to get 3 to 6 in from the National Weather Service, although I would have to look back at the data. It was pretty clear that the air mass was very anomalous for that time of year, even if the sun made it feel mild just prior to the storm the atmosphere temperatures were already very cold and there was a strong high-pressure anchored in place and the predecessor snowfall gave a clue as to how cold the atmosphere was in the region even if snow didn't fall in your backyard. The end results did surprise almost everyone with the amount of damage and destruction but the models and the atmospheric pattern were giving us clues in advance. Some forecasters were clearly too conservative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: No offense taken and I'm sorry if I offended you. Your view tends to represent what much of the public would have thought about the storm, and the storm did overperform but there were also some pretty clear meteorological signs if you were following the model data and people like Ryan Hanrahan closely. You were definitely in a bit more of a marginal area being further south but I'm pretty sure you were in a winter storm watch the day before and upgraded to a warning and projected to get 3 to 6 in from the National Weather Service, although I would have to look back at the data. It was pretty clear that the air mass was very anomalous for that time of year, even if the sun made it feel mild just prior to the storm the atmosphere temperatures were already very cold and there was a strong high-pressure anchored in place and the predecessor snowfall gave a clue as to how cold the atmosphere was in the region even if snow didn't fall in your backyard. The end results did surprise almost everyone with the amount of damage and destruction but the models and the atmospheric pattern were giving us clues in advance. Some forecasters were clearly too conservative as well. Completely and totally agree with everything you're saying. I was well aware of the potential, and warned alot of my family and friends that there could be more snow...much more than what was even being suggested. And yes, the ingredients were very anomalous...and yes the signals were there if you were following along on here. But even the local stations were not calling for a complete snow event here at all...not by a long shot..nobody was for this area. But for this area it way way overperformed from what was being advertised. All the stations were playing catch up as it set in. No worries though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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