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Annual end of Oct blockbuster


Ginx snewx
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... I've read some post in here re the October statistics as bearing some correlation with ensuing DJF ...  or maybe NDJFM ... whatever.   I'll just add this quick opine fwiw -

My experience is that there is a 'tendency' for storm frequency/active weather pattern establishment during the cool transition season.  In fact, I might be inclined to say pattern tendency ...

However, that does not say much about temperature anomaly distribution ( an equally important distinction).  But, perhaps most importantly, "tendency" is far from "certainty."   

In dealing with any public domain, one needs to be careful though... Because even in making that caveat emptor, suppose an active October then happens to not precede an unusually stormy active winter. Any such audacious Meteorologist will then be summarily bent over a ceremonial reputation ram-rod.  The qualifiers are missed ... I dunno, in lieu of what filtering wanted to hear: 

October .... storm ... = DJF, Kleenex and lotion.

I just don't have as much of a problem in seeing a stormy year parlay off of an active autumn. I'll leave it at that.  

As far as this thing ... the problem I am seeing with the GFS operational runs (and I'm not sure upon using the free products, if the Euro is doing the same thing..,) is that there is a leading convective feed-back issue near the latitudes of the Va Capes...  The spatial separation (as in distance...) between that early spin up, and the main trough amplitude is shrinking on average across successive runs ... as that gap closes, the model "might" be opting to wait for better forcing to detonate a coastal low.  But, if you look at the vorticity products, you really can see small shrapnel seem to spontaneously spawn in the flow there and sort of closes off from the inside out over 18 or so hours once that initiates ...  This then feeds back (I believe) on an erroneous early low that even bombs quite a bit... i suspect as we get closer that will continue to correct smoother and any more meaningful coastal cyclogen waits for the main trough amplitude.

So...that's long -winded (pun intended...) for describing a look more guided by convective feedback.  A storm will likely evolve in the period in question but those details are highly suspect to me.

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55 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

October snow means crappy winter... let's hope for rain

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

PTSD over 1 storm is real. 

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47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends on where.  Accumulating an inch in Boston in October correlates to a poor winter but if Boston gets a smaller amount that correlation doesn’t apply.  And it’s only Boston.  Worcester has no such correlation.   But beware-sample size renders these correlations relatively useless.    

 Amen brother. Good post about sample size. 

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