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north pgh

✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019

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Looks like our first shot at some flakes Saturday night. :snowwindow:

This trough is progged to cross our region later Sat
afternoon/night with rain showers expected. The rain should mix
with and change to snow in cold advection after FROPA. Some lake
and terrain enhancement is expected in NW flow, and some minor
accumulation is possible N of I 80. A better chance of
accumulation is expected especially in the higher terrain of WV
and MD, though the best moisture is progged below the dendritic
growth layer. This should keep potential snowfall rates limited.

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Not really sure how this one works out like this. Nov 3-16 looks below average but the month overall looks to be warm. Must be a hell of a second-half heat wave coming in November :maphot:

Screen Shot 2018-10-22 at 10.41.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-10-22 at 10.41.09 AM.png

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18 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Snow Squall warnings just like Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This will be another thing for us to track this winter.

I like it and I think it is needed.

Thoughts?

https://www.facebook.com/NWSPittsburgh

 

I'm sure it will be a valuable inclusion to their warning suite.

I only wonder about effectiveness.  How long are the lead times?  Perhaps for truckers this will work - assuming they monitor weather conditions frequently - but how many motorists pay close attention to the weather when and while they are traveling?  Locals know the weather and what to expect.  Those out of familiar terrain may not and may not think to keep updated constantly.

Short-lived warnings like this need rapid and widespread dissemination.  I do hope it helps, though.

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I just went to the GFS to see about weather for next week. It still have Pittsburgh in the zone for some snow but greatly reduced, 3-5 with most of it melting because the ground is relatively warm. Regardless, it snow and I'm happy to just follow the signal of snow.

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On 11/5/2018 at 5:44 PM, Newman said:

Congrats Western PA on the 18z GFS. Storm signal is there for something in the 14th-15th time frame.

gfs_asnow_neus_41.png

Definitely our first shot at some accumulating snow this season Monday night into Tuesday, although 15 inches is probably a bit overdone lol

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I keep looking here to see if anyone is chattering about Tuesday and you guys are all quiet!   

I think everyone is trying to contain their excitement. All of the winter weather Wienies are trying to avoid early season disappointment. I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet. Any shift??


.

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4 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:


I think everyone is trying to contain their excitement. All of the winter weather Wienies are trying to avoid early season disappointment. I haven’t looked at the 12z Euro yet. Any shift??


.

Haven’t been following the Euro to close but still looked west and warmish to me. Seems the GFS and it’s FV3 are inching closer to the Euro but we’d probably still get some accumulations. Maybe the 2 camps meet in the middle. Temps are marginal and it’s still early Nov so I’m skeptical of more than an inch or so right now.

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2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Haven’t been following the Euro to close but still looked west and warmish to me. Seems the GFS and it’s FV3 are inching closer to the Euro but we’d probably still get some accumulations. Maybe the 2 camps meet in the middle. Temps are marginal and it’s still early Nov so I’m skeptical of more than an inch or so right now.

OZ NAM on board for 2-3 inches.

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I finally had a chance to look at the 12z Euro. It did come slightly southeast. However, 00z GFS went too far northwest. Windshield wiper in full effect. 

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32 minutes ago, north pgh said:

OZ NAM on board for 2-3 inches.

NAM has the HP in a better spot. Further southeast allowing for more suppression and cold air to keep our precip all snow.

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11 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

I finally had a chance to look at the 12z Euro. It did come slightly southeast. However, 00z GFS went too far northwest. Windshield wiper in full effect. 

GFS caves to Euro.. Shocker lol 12z GFS still to far NW, at least we know now rather than Sunday night. Still some wrap around and some LES on the backend. 

Had a pretty vigorous snow shower move through this morning,. Put down a quick dusting. 

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Made a quick trip to my camp in Potter county to winterize it, 2 to 3" of wet snow up there even on the roads...enough that they were plowing at the higher elevations.   My deck and shady areas still had snow when I got home.  Currently 19 this morning.

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Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months.

If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable.

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Nice to be back at it with everyone again. Seems like we’ve had a few great tracks already in November just not quite cold enough. Thursday looks interesting for a brief mix at the start and maybe a change back to snow at the end. 

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2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Irregardless of snow accumulations, with falling temperatures and periodic snow showers tomorrow should prove to look and feel pretty winter like. To bad this whole setup wasn't 3-4 weeks later when climo would be significantly more favorable although I think we will have several chances to roll the dice in the coming months.

If I can make an analogous comparison to sports, I think this winter we will have a very solid roster (various indices and El-nino should be favorable) so I foresee hitting average snowfall for the year as the floor of expectations, but with some luck, I think our odds at seeing a couple larger snowfalls this winter is also on the table more so than normal. Not saying expect 12+ every other week, but the ever elusive 6in or greater storm should be statistically more attainable.

Good points. This should be an interesting week because temperatures will be up and down and with precipitation falling off and on we may get some surprise changes in precip. I can remember a few storms in the early 80's where rain was mostly forecast and we had a couple of big wet snow events out here in the suburbs. Location and elevations will be key. Plus remember it is only November 12th!

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