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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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On 2/14/2019 at 9:20 AM, jwilson said:

48 hours later and I'm a lot less optimistic about the next week.  The -PNA is killing us, and the MJO appears to be dying in Phase 8 as it did last time.  It honestly wouldn't surprise me if it looped around the COD and re-emerged into the warm phases again.  Maybe that's unlikely to happen given other conditions, but this winter has been a real test of patience.

We're back to tracking cutter solutions in the mid-range.  Maybe March has a freak out of sorts, which is still possible, though unlikely.  The only way I could see us salvaging something is with a -NAO block.  The problem is we haven't been able to establish one, or anything close to it this year.  The big +AO is just another negative factor.  Not quite ready to cancel the rest of winter, but I'm pretty darn close.

"I want to get off Mr. Bones' Wild Ride."

I'm with you on this. I do this for fun, and part of that is is trying to figure out what may happen weeks down the line to setup a favorable pattern so I can track short / medium range snow storms. Well this year pretty much kicked everyone's ass in the LR forecasting department, from highly skilled folks to the models themselves, it seemed we did more punting waiting for something to happen, then it would but not have the effect it was presumed to have. I found that frustrating but interesting especially if some explanations on causality of it all come to light.

That being said, I don't think we can declare winter dead at this point, despite the monster SE ridge that looks to really get going by hour 96 of the GEFS, there is a small chance at something before that. Around hour 200 the GEFS show the western trough bleeding eastward and squashing heights from the SE ridge.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh210-240.thumb.gif.dea364815fd32f6475918e83b7cacc7b.gif

Then by 384 we have this look:

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

The EPS seem to be heading in this direction to albeit much slower. In either case, this should provide at least a temporary window again in late Feb / early Mar. I'm not saying this is what I think will happen, just discussing what the models show, at this point I have no idea what to trust lol

My preference is for deep winter, highs below freezing after a big storm with snow on snow little events to follow with days on end of snow cover. At this point that is off the table.This is the viewpoint I come from which can skew my perception of how things are headed. By mid March, if its going to snow it better be epic, by then I'm done with 1-2 2-4 type deals. I'd be all in for the SE ridge to setup shop from mid March - April and have a nice warm Spring for once.

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro shows a hit blah blah. It wont play out that way. Warm tongue will win out. No reason it wouldn't just going on our season trend this winter. 

The only thing that might save this storm is the timing of it with a transient -NAO.  If we can close a block in at the right time, we may be able to keep the confluence locked in rather than escaping and the low tracks underneath us.  Right now, though, I agree that this storm is heavily favored to cut like the rest of them.  The Euro keeps the low in Tennessee, which is about as far north as we can let it go.

There is another wave behind it (Friday/Saturday) which could be a better shot, or perhaps more likely suppressed.  I give us about a 2% chance to get the timing right.

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5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I'm with you on this. I do this for fun, and part of that is is trying to figure out what may happen weeks down the line to setup a favorable pattern so I can track short / medium range snow storms. Well this year pretty much kicked everyone's ass in the LR forecasting department, from highly skilled folks to the models themselves, it seemed we did more punting waiting for something to happen, then it would but not have the effect it was presumed to have. I found that frustrating but interesting especially if some explanations on causality of it all come to light.

- snip -

Agreed with you and then Mike (about the screaming southern jet).  I don't really trust the guidance beyond Day 4 this year, so I guess it would be unfair of me to say with certainty what will happen.  All we have is how the preceding days of winter have gone.  The tropical forcing might be changing a tad, though we're still dealing with Phase 7 MJO effects, so that's where the hesitance comes in.

If we can get the MJO to actually move towards Phase 1 at a decent amplitude and stop meandering, there's our chance.  The western trough will hurt us in the meantime.  Hopefully, as you've shown, it does flatten and limit that SE ridge influence in the coming days.

I don't know enough to say which is cause vs. effect, as we've also been dealing with a pretty strong high over the Azores most of the winter.  Maybe we luck into something eventually.

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5 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I refuse to even entertain the snow maps. 

Good idea at this juncture. It's at least gotten a bit better though, went from basically all rain to a couple inches on the front side. If those looks continue I may start to raise an eyebrow. Hopefully the confluence holds stronger and we can push the storm east instead of it driving north. 

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4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

The ridge / trough alignment this year has just been awful for our geographic location. Wish we could get CAD like east of the mountains... 

I will say though if the trough out west does shift east there should be a brief window at least where there is enough ridging to keep the storm track west ie maybe an inland track. Would have to time right with a storm but another way we could score before the game is over. 

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Everything just trends worse and worse. It just doesnt want to snow here this winter. I'm really getting tired of the rain. It wouldn't be so bad if it didnt rain everytine we get any sort of moderate amount of moisture. At this point I'd love an outright torch but even with the south east ridge and Pacific trough trying to warm us up we still ride the boundary. Unfortunately I know how this is gonna play out. MJO is going into phase 8-1-2 in March and we get a late snow storm and a delayed spring. 

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I just got back from Erie. Left at 2:00 overcast. Hit some light dusting snow from Meadville down to Grove City. Had 5 miles or so of heavy snow....big silver dollar snowflakes covered the road from 422 to Zelionople. Rain sleet snow mix thru cranberry and then straight rain from Wexford exit to home. 

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Might be the shortest advisory ever.

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
506 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

PAZ021-029-073-WVZ002-003-180000-
/O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190218T0000Z/
Allegheny-Washington-Westmoreland-Brooke-Ohio-
Including the cities of Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington,
Canonsburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Follansbee,
Wellsburg, and Wheeling
506 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Allegheny, Washington and
  Westmoreland Counties. In West Virginia, Brooke and Ohio
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the
NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh
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Everything is coated in an 1/8" layer of ice around here, shrubs, driveway, deck.  We had ice pellets, sleet, a few flakes of snow then ending as freezing rain. Temp hovered around freezing and slightly below freezing with the rain at the end.  There was enough slush and ice on our street that they used the plow when the twp truck came around.

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Well I know we are getting sick of these slop storms.. but just for something interesting I decided to look at the sounding on the NAM, it does depict a pretty decent band in the front end snow portion of the storm. This would be brief but pretty heavy I would think Wednesday morning as it pushes North.
image.thumb.png.7dcb0056e4b6795a0eed0139ec63a233.png


Not a super deep DGZ but the omega is good. Should be coming down pretty good at that point. A nice front end thump


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10 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:


Not a super deep DGZ but the omega is good. Should be coming down pretty good at that point. A nice front end thump


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At this point I just want to see some decent heavy snow even if the accumulations dont amount to a lot. I missed out on the death squall line a few weeks ago. 

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Am I wrong to think we may be looking at a nice 2-4 surprise quick thump Wednesday morning before we go to freezing slop? I know these front end deals fail us almost every time but models looking better. Thoughts?

I was kind of thinking the same thing. It will all depend on how amplified the system is aloft. If the 850mb temps are coming in crazy, then we will get mostly sleet. But if they hold off like they did for yesterday’s system, then we might be in for that 2-4 in surprise


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6 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Am I wrong to think we may be looking at a nice 2-4 surprise quick thump Wednesday morning before we go to freezing slop? I know these front end deals fail us almost every time but models looking better. Thoughts?

I wouldn’t even call it a surprise...I can see that being the forecast. Seems to be enough precip before the warm air really takes over

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