civanac85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM isn’t horrible especially for Pittsburgh north. Maybe we get some convective bands that surprise some folks south of Pgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, CoraopolisWx said: NAM isn’t horrible especially for Pittsburgh north. Maybe we get some convective bands that surprise some folks south of Pgh. Or maybe the WTOD is overdone on the models for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: Or maybe the WTOD is overdone on the models for a change. Possibly, but I still think the warm air wins out temporarily. However if we can get some good banding it might help salvage something for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS is worse too. I’m probably done with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Or maybe the WTOD is overdone on the models for a change. It's rarely "overdone" but I guess we can hope for a miracle at this point. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: GFS is worse too. I’m probably done with this one. You guys should have listened to me when I called a Youngstown special a week ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Rd9108 said: You guys should have listened to me when I called a Youngstown special a week ago. Yep. The gfs gets rain up well into butler county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You guys should have listened to me when I called a Youngstown special a week ago. Oh, I was right there with you basically saying the same things. This hobby just pulls you in when you think just maybe we'll get the prize at the end for once....then it rips the rug out from underneath you and takes you back to the reality that is living in this area. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'll be up listening to the radio so I'll post the euro when it comes out if its atleast decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: GFS is worse too. I’m probably done with this one. Yep.. If this is what verifies honestly I'd rather it just drive to Erie and dryslot us. I'd even take a sleet storm at this point. Plain rain is such a waste. Now cast time should be interesting, but I already have one hand on the blinds ready to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: NAM isn’t horrible especially for Pittsburgh north. Maybe we get some convective bands that surprise some folks south of Pgh. You'd think hires models would have a better handle on thermals than the GFS so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Maybe none of these models know what the **** is going on. Now cast is gonna be brutal watching that mix line surge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Yep.. If this is what verifies honestly I'd rather it just drive to Erie and dryslot us. I'd even take a sleet storm at this point. Plain rain is such a waste. Now cast time should be interesting, but I already have one hand on the blinds ready to close. Well put. The Canadian went a little bit north but still gives us our best chance of accumulating snow. It is nowcast time. Let’s wake up and hope it starts as snow and doesn’t change over too early. Are we in for a surprise? You never know but I would put our odds at about 30%. Good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 One last thing and I am done posting until tomorrow when the snow begins. I am disappointed in the trends like everyone else but I still think we will do okay. My guesses. Blending the models we can get the Southern part of the county 2-4. Central county 4-6 and north county 6-8. It will start as snow and if it holds on we could get some decent snow early and it will be daylight so I’m going outside to enjoy what falls. Let’s hope if it goes to rain it is light and changes after dark. I feel like I just watched a Steelers game and get all worked up for a last minute loss. But as I get older I get over it quicker and get on to the next game. Let’s get SOME snow tomorrow and the pattern is ripe for some cold and more snow in the coming weeks. Maybe some clippers and when we get them they seem to be more enjoyable because we don’t have the precipitation issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, north pgh said: One last thing and I am done posting until tomorrow when the snow begins. I am disappointed in the trends like everyone else but I still think we will do okay. My guesses. Blending the models we can get the Southern part of the county 2-4. Central county 4-6 and north county 6-8. It will start as snow and if it holds on we could get some decent snow early and it will be daylight so I’m going outside to enjoy what falls. Let’s hope if it goes to rain it is light and changes after dark. I feel like I just watched a Steelers game and get all worked up for a last minute loss. But as I get older I get over it quicker and get on to the next game. Let’s get SOME snow tomorrow and the pattern is ripe for some cold and more snow in the coming weeks. Maybe some clippers and when we get them they seem to be more enjoyable because we don’t have the precipitation issues. Ditto... Also, I found this probabilistic forecast from the NWS hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: One last thing and I am done posting until tomorrow when the snow begins. I am disappointed in the trends like everyone else but I still think we will do okay. My guesses. Blending the models we can get the Southern part of the county 2-4. Central county 4-6 and north county 6-8. It will start as snow and if it holds on we could get some decent snow early and it will be daylight so I’m going outside to enjoy what falls. Let’s hope if it goes to rain it is light and changes after dark. I feel like I just watched a Steelers game and get all worked up for a last minute loss. But as I get older I get over it quicker and get on to the next game. Let’s get SOME snow tomorrow and the pattern is ripe for some cold and more snow in the coming weeks. Maybe some clippers and when we get them they seem to be more enjoyable because we don’t have the precipitation issues. Speaking of the next "game" GFS says we maybe get to do it all over again next week! Still time for it to move south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My bar is set at 6 hours of snow and 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hrrr looks good. Not even a flake to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, north pgh said: I'd still take that of course, but this goes to show you how much the Euro has caved in to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Welp, the 3k NAM was worse yet, I believe. With any luck we'll be able to get 2-3". The tracking is so fun but boy is it a letdown when things fall apart!! It does make me feel better that the folks in the forum are right there with me though. Plus, I've learned so much from a bunch of you since joining. Thanks!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lead precip is halfway across Indiana and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Already 31 degrees. Not a good sign. looks like a high of 35 in pit. Might as well take down the WSW and issue a flood watch for all the rain were a about to get..... its funny we predicted this from the beginning - we know how things work around here. Cold air always loses the battle until you get to rt 422/I 80. just goes to show how rare it is to actually get a big snowfall (12+) in this area. Hopefully we can get 2-3” before it rains all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I know everyone knows that it is coming, but here is some nowcasting to prove it... the ridge is way more amplified than any of the models were showing. The h8 temps way warmer than thought This has resulted in places like Indy (who was right on the mixing line like us) to be all rain. It’s inevitable. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m honestly thinking we don’t get more than an inch, maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pre-temperature is what I'm worried about. It's 29 in my backyard this morning. Channel 11 showed rain getting up to Butler and staying rain past 11PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Even my conservative forecast might bust high, haha. Not surprising with no cold air locked into place. Unfortunately, we can't get that broad trough storm we need. These storms demonstrate how rare the right track is for this area. Things almost always align too far north or too far south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My point an click still says all snow...I’m starting to wonder if this is some sort of government shutdown protest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: My point an click still says all snow...I’m starting to wonder if this is some sort of government shutdown protest. I agree. Nobody is changing anything in our area not even WPC. Are they being cautious or do they not trust this WTOD? Fingers crossed. Remember it is nowcast time. F the models and time to sky watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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