north pgh Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lock the Euro in for next weekend? lol. Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Here's a color map to go along with my prediction. So the locations probably aren't perfect. Forgive my color scheme and photoshop skills (this was a quick job). It's more of a general idea. I'm mainly posting this to see how well I do versus the models and whether they are properly estimating the warmth, or if personal experience is the better rubric. In terms of sleet: though I don't include measurements for it, there could be inches of sleet in those areas highlighted, obviously more as you go north in and around the city metro. Ice calls for the possibility of freezing rain. I don't imagine there will be significant accumulations of it, but a quarter inch+ in some localized cold spots isn't out of the question. I do hope I bust low on these numbers, particularly south of the city, but I'd prefer to go conservative when there's a mixing possibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Latest from PBZ: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A major winter storm remains in the offing for the Ohio Valley Sat and Sun as low pressure in the lee of the Rocky Mountains strengthens on its enewd trajectory across the CONUS. Snow is expected to start Sat morning as warm air advection begins in earnest, but higher snow rates are not likely to occur until Sat afternoon, when warm air advection strengthens and H7 frontogenesis increases considerably, leading to strong upward motion. All models continue to show a plume of warm H9/H8 air spreading newd Sat afternoon and evening, but still show some degree of inconsistency in the nwd extent of this plume. The usually- aggressive NAM is the most conservative with the nwd extent of the warm air as a result of a swd trajectory for the system. Most other models suggest a wintry mix will affect somewhere along and swd of a line from ZZV-PIT-IDI. Nwd from DUJ-UCP-PHD, cold air will remain firmly ensconced, with frontogenesis and an eventual deformation zone leading to banded snowfall enhancements. Winter storm conditions in these zones are a high-confidence forecast, with 8-12+ inches expected. Freezing rain, especially in the ridge zone valleys, also may be not insignificant, where the warm air plume rides atop cool, low-level air resulting from prolonged sely upslope flow. There remains, however, considerable forecast bust potential with this system as a result of several items: 1) The strength and nrn extent of the warm air plume differ considerably among the various forecast models, leading to low confidence in the forecasted amounts in this transition zone. 2) The duration of any high precipitation rates with respect to any transition to rain. In other words, will the high QPF occur while it is cold enough for snow? 3) The potential for ice/sleet to interfere with snow totals. As has been the case for several days, a gradient in snowfall is expected to occur from near Zanesville to near Pittsburgh to near Latrobe, and will lead to a sharp decrease in snow totals from north to south across whichever counties experience this transition zone. ***OVERALL MESSAGE: A shift by as little as 20 miles in the system track will drastically alter the location of this transition zone. In this zone, it is possible for up to a foot of snow. In this zone, it also is possible for 4-6 inches snow and some ice/sleet. In this zone, it also is possible for virtually all rain during the height of the storm. And all of that could occur in different sections of the same county. Anyone in this zone should be prepared for up to 12" of snow, or as little as 1" snow, because that is the reality of this system's event horizon.*** By late Sat night, cold air will advance sewd at the back side of the upper-level low, leading to a transition back to snow in all zones as the system departs. Apart from far-ern sections, widespread snow should be winding down during the morning on Sun, and a transition to snow showers will ensue as lake enhancement increases. Cold air Sun night and continued wind will lead to wind chill values reaching advisory levels in many areas. This concern has been highlighted in the HWO at this time, with headlines likely once any wintry precipitation is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 My anti-tongue hope hinges on two things: As modeled, this not a primary through Ohio with redevelopment. The WTOD dipiction is usually because places to the east experience CADDing and places to the north are far enough out of harms way before a secondary storm takes over. If this is seriously going to pass to the SE by way of southern WV, then I think even areas that get more warm push will flip back. The track is the “big IF” to me. Second is the time of year. It’s climatology the coldest. That gives a little more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z namMan the NAM really doesn’t want to give up on the anti WTOD idea. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM jumps the low pressure all over the place. Maybe it's right especially with having the RPM in its camp. I remain very skeptical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, meatwad said: I believe that's the RPM if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM came far south. Still screws us but it's way south. I'm stepping away until the euro later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: RGEM came far south. Still screws us but it's way south. I'm stepping away until the euro later. What part of Pittsburgh are you in? When you say it "screws us" are you saying the entire region or just a portion of the County? Just asking. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, north pgh said: What part of Pittsburgh are you in? When you say it "screws us" are you saying the entire region or just a portion of the County? Just asking. Thanks RGEM is much closer to a hit for us, and considering just how far north it was this is a good bump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS also inched south..we are right on the fringe of mixing on it, but it is really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 http://weathermadness.com/2019/01/18/kuchera-method-for-snow-amounts-seems-to-be-working-best/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 LOLZ @ FV3. litteral snow hole over swpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, cwc said: LOLZ @ FV3. litteral snow hole over swpa. Toss it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 And the NAM is coming pretty far north.... great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Good luck to all of you over the weekend. Been in your position plenty of times over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: And the NAM is coming pretty far north.... great. Ugghhhh. Yes. I'm watching now and it's bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: And the NAM is coming pretty far north.... great. No surprise, glad it caught on before the storm ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3k looks good but let's be honest we aren't seeing the 6-8 they predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Anyone have access to the 00z HRRR? I’d love to see what that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: Anyone have access to the 00z HRRR? I’d love to see what that does . You sure? Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well boys we just tracked another rain storm. Good job everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3k NAM us our only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You sure? Heh. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM actually sucks and most of that is sleet/rain. This hobby sucks, how do I delete my americanwx account? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You sure? Heh. Wow. OK, I am officially moving out of Bethel Park.....aka, Screwzone Park. Maybe I can move to Butler County. Taxes are cheaper. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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