dj3 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MikeB_01 said: GEFS also looking like a slight tick to the south and east Eliminated most of the members that get close to our latitude. I’m liking this a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Oh boy... Lol. Looking forward to the next update from kpit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 00z vs 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 wow. What a gradient. UKie snow doesn't look as good as what I thought it would. But its holding steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is as far as the mix/snow line makes it on the 00z Deep Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro a touch warmer from 12z, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro a touch warmer, it seems.Of course it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Of course it is... . I've already thrown in the towel for down here, but you guys are gonna be sooooooo close. Kinda glad it's not me. Too stressful. Causes me to lose sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Snowfall map still looks about the same as 12z, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Snowfall map still looks about the same as 12z, though. Almost identical . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Mailman said: I've already thrown in the towel for down here, but you guys are gonna be sooooooo close. Kinda glad it's not me. Too stressful. Causes me to lose sleep. I haven't thrown in the towel but it's in my hand ready to go. These models almost always underestimate that warm tongue. With me being on the very edge as it is, I just get the bad feeling I'm going to end up with a lot more slop than what is being modeled. I've just seen it happen so often over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Go NAM!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, blackngoldrules said: I haven't thrown in the towel but it's in my hand ready to go. These models almost always underestimate that warm tongue. With me being on the very edge as it is, I just get the bad feeling I'm going to end up with a lot more slop than what is being modeled. I've just seen it happen so often over the years. I'm right on the edge, most models give me 10-12 but 10 miles to the South totals drop to like 3-4 inches then like 1-2 another 15 miles. I really don't think that will happen like that, that fall line will likely setup just a bit further North.. I've seen in countless times, 10 miles north of me gets hammered (my Dad is plowing the drive way and I'm using a broom to push some slop off the sidewalk). The 6z FV3 looks close to what climo typically looks like for these storms. The Euro and UKMET are very close, and have the changeover about 25-50 miles south of what the 06z FV3 shows. NAM is really on it's own, but I'm not sure when (if ever lol) you should start to weigh it's thermals over the GFS. Either way its likely way underdone the warm wedge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So, are we ignoring the 06z NAM run? Is it to be trusted??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So, are we ignoring the 06z NAM run? Is it to be trusted???Yes. For the most part, it's on its own. There's no way I can see that warm wedge not making it to Allegheny County like the latest NAM suggests. It almost always does in this scenario. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, blackngoldrules said: Yes. For the most part, it's on its own. There's no way I can see that warm wedge not making it to Allegheny County like the latest NAM suggests. It almost always does in this scenario. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 10-4. I guess we'll see in an hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The GFS and especially the FV3 have been insistent on a shutout for a couple days now, it's gonna be really interesting to see if that 850 setup verifies on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12k shifted a little north but still keeps the changeover line south of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is close on the changeover line but a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Pretty consistent but man is it too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, BigBen89 said: interested to see how much of that is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3k totals. So close. Gonna be rough watching the mix line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: interested to see how much of that is sleet Based on the latest NAM run, and the 3k NAM run, I'd say a lot of this shown is sleet. I feel we're in for a big let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, BigBen89 said: Based on the latest NAM run, and the 3k NAM run, I'd say a lot of this shown is sleet. I feel we're in for a big let down. Are we looking at the same NAM??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I thought the mix line stayed south of the city. Usually if we are in the pinkish purple that will be counted on the snowfall map but I didn’t notice any sleet from the city north. Doesn’t mean it will necessarily fall that way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 https://store1.wxdisco.com/storage/uploads/monthly_2019_01/1670496121_9-kmECMWFUSASurface1-HourlyNortheastUS1-hPrecipTypeMSLP.gif.131eee74816e22fdf67f58f3883cd078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dj3 said: I thought the mix line stayed south of the city. Usually if we are in the pinkish purple that will be counted on the snowfall map but I didn’t notice any sleet from the city north. Doesn’t mean it will necessarily fall that way though Yeah that's what I'm saying. Just looking at the mix line and the temps it stays all snow. Unfortunately the warm tongue often likes to punch higher than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Realistically, Using Kuchera method NAM isn't much further South for the all \ majority snow solution, maybe 25-50 miles? I fully expect it to nudge NW and be more in line with the global models by the time the event is slated to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah, despite the 0Z NAM shift from last night, I don't see enough change to make me feel all warm and tingly. I think this system is setting up for disappointment from city points south. I'll say 2-5" (of snow) in the city and points south, with about 1-2" around the Mason Dixon line (mostly after temp crash). There will likely be an area that gets 2-4" of sleet or more on top of that snow, perhaps somewhere into Northern Allegheny just above the city into Westmoreland and Armstrong counties. The jackpot zone will probably setup into Lawrence, Butler, and Clarion counties running northeast, and of course more as you get into central/northern PA. Hopefully February brings more success. Of course, we get another cutter this week followed by a clipper parade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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