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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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Like it has already been mentioned, the WTOD is typically underestimated by the models. The models are already pulling it far north days in advance. I've had storms where I was forecast to get a couple inches of snow before the changeover and I ended up with about 5 or 10 minutes of snow and then a quick change to rain. I wouldn't be surprised if I get that again in my area from this one. At least some of you north of Pittsburgh might hold on to the snow longer before the changeover.

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1 hour ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Been here since 2009 and I caution any newbies lurking ignore most of the posters with 1000+ posts here, they are wrong 75% of the time, the schtick is to mope and complain they are not getting 30" of snow, how G*d is screwing them or some other nonsense.  We ran off the real Met(s) a while ago.  We are 4 days out and most people whose job it is to know, have no idea what is going to happen.  I point back to 2009 and up to 12 hours about 1/2 of the posters were poo-pooing that 30" monster we got(shall I call some you out?).  Have you snowblower test run and gassed up and get your salt by tomorrow. We are in for a storm of 8+ inches.  How much above 8" who knows.  Ignore all the model hugging mouth diarrhea. 

I-80 isn’t safe on that GFS run.

 

How many times can this happen to us?

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The NAMs at range look like all snow for that pseudo clipper Thursday.  Won't be much, but hopefully it stays all frozen.

There were improvements on the Euro at the upper levels, so not all is lost, but I'll be extremely concerned if the Ukie folds to the Euro/GFS camp.  Outside of that, we still have to get into NAM range for the main system to completely give up hope.  Things certainly not ideal right now.

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This the only reason I'm optimistic. I got it from usawx forum. This was the gfs before this past weekends storm. It was a little too far north. How did that work out? Let's be honest it's a different set up and usually we dont do well in these storm tracks but until the snow is falling we can still get a good trend. qREYXgW.png

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For the clipper coming through, NAM appears to be all snow but the GFS is showing rain mixing in with this one too. NWS seems to be leaning toward GFS with their forecast since they are forecasting a mix of rain and snow, at least for my area. Even with a clipper, we have potential p-type issues.

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5 hours ago, dj3 said:

Gfs still takes the low over our heads and up into ny state. 

The low is transferring to another low that is moving up the coast. That would be better for us I believe? Henry Margusity predicted this earlier. Wouldn’t this bring the cold air in earlier and get more snow from the second low? Just asking.

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1 minute ago, north pgh said:

The low is transferring to another low that is moving up the coast. That would be better for us I believe? Henry Margusity predicted this earlier. Wouldn’t this bring the cold air in earlier and get more snow from the second low? Just asking.

Pretty sure this was exactly what happened feb 5-6 2010 when we got bombed.

 

Really that is always our best scenario outside of the rare bomb miller A...primary dies as it gets over us, yet we are close enough to the coastal to be in banding from that too.

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